august 2014 observations and discussions

[tim the weatherman]

feel free to discuss here at the august 2014 topic.

[Tom]

August continues with the same tempo as July, cool pool smack dab in the middle of the Nation....I'm fine with another repeat month like we have experienced in July.

 

[tim the weatherman]

good read on the weather centre regarding the fall weather and he is saying a cool to chilly temps \.

[james1976]

impressive stuff! hopefully we get some precip going. been kinda boring lately.

[East Dubzz]

Really hope it stays cool, don't know the heat during football camp at all.

[Tom]

Really hope it stays cool, don't know the heat during football camp at all.

CFSv2 aint painting much heat for this month...you should be good for training camp.

[Tom]

Next week Wed/Thu both the GFS and Euro are showing an almost winter like SLP that is generating some very heavy rainfall and possible severe weather.

 

On another note, GFS really showing N Canada cooling dramatically in the long range.  It's interesting to follow the weather up there as the seasons begin to change this month up in the northern latitudes.

[james1976]

Next week Wed/Thu both the GFS and Euro are showing an almost winter like SLP that is generating some very heavy rainfall and possible severe weather.

 

On another note, GFS really showing N Canada cooling dramatically in the long range.  It's interesting to follow the weather up there as the seasons begin to change this month up in the northern latitudes.

Ive been noticing the 850 freezing line showing up in Canada a lot in the recent GFS runs.

[james1976]

DMX talking about a phasing system mid next week with significant rains.
Also noticing recent GFS runs are pulling some pretty cool air into the upper midwest toward the middle of the month. That is a ways out but maybe something to keep an eye on. Canada is looking a bit chilly.

[james1976]

Sounds like a possible typhoon for Japan next week. Didnt they get hit a few weeks ago? And doesnt that usually give the midwest below normal temps 6-10 days later? Maybe that's what the GFS is picking up on.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/japan-south-korea-face-tropica-1/31370798

[Tom]

Ive been noticing the 850 freezing line showing up in Canada a lot in the recent GFS runs.

The 850 line isnt' necessarily the freezing line during the summer months or even early Fall.  Nonetheless, Canada sure is filling in with cooler air this month.  I was taking a look at the September outlook on the CFSv2 and its showing some real chill to open up the month, sort of like last year.  That's still down the road.

 

As for the system next week, its crazy to see a clipper-like system in the summer months!

[Tom]

Euro and GFS are complete opposite in terms of forecasting what happens in the Gulf of Alaska around the 9/10th.  I think GFS has the right approach and develops a massive High Pressure that has been so persistent this year since the waters are very warm.  Meanwhile, Euro ensembles want to develop a low pressure.  Doesn't make sense to me.

 

As for another Typhoon hitting Japan, it makes sense for this ridge to develop in the 6-10 day range and another big trough to hit the Region/North America.  Haven't seen this type of pattern hit Canada yet this summer.

[FiNsTa]

GFS/EURO long range are hinting at some sustained warmth for sure. The general pattern for this August looks pretty zonal.

[Tom]

GFS/EURO long range are hinting at some sustained warmth for sure. The general pattern for this August looks pretty zonal.

I'm betting we will see an amplified pattern this month, especially if you consider the east Asian theory and the general pattern this summer.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.7.31.2014.gif

[tim the weatherman]

according to accuweather that a heat wave is coming for mid month for the midwest and the northeast with the core of heat over the midwest right around the 14th to the 24th.

[Tom]

We are due for a heat wave, but I'm not buying into it.  Even though we are in the final cycle of the LRC, which is the weakest cycle, it has been very hard to produce a sustained heat wave this summer and I just don't see it happening, IMO.  A more transitional and amplified pattern should be expected.

[tim the weatherman]

We are due for a heat wave, but I'm not buying into it.  Even though we are in the final cycle of the LRC, which is the weakest cycle, it has been very hard to produce a sustained heat wave this summer and I just don't see it happening, IMO.  A more transitional and amplified pattern should be expected.

since the lrc is going through the final cycle it start's up in october so that means we have a couple of months before it starts up again.

[james1976]

If that typhoon happens, wouldn't that pretty much take away any chance of a heat wave in the midwest?

[tim the weatherman]

If that typhoon happens, wouldn't that pretty much take away any chance of a heat wave in the midwest?

that is correctbecause if a typhoon hit japan ittakes 6 to 10 days later to affect the heat for the midwest and to take it away.

[tim the weatherman]

We are due for a heat wave, but I'm not buying into it.  Even though we are in the final cycle of the LRC, which is the weakest cycle, it has been very hard to produce a sustained heat wave this summer and I just don't see it happening, IMO.  A more transitional and amplified pattern should be expected.

but how can you have a heatwave with a massive ridge setting up over the north pacific you got to have a low pressure in the north pacific to have that happening my opinion is accuweather is wrong on that any way because one way is the north pacific has warm waters to order to have the epo to stay negative.

[Tom]

00z Euro now seeing a power house mid month trough in the Lakes extending up all the way to Hudson Bay.

[tim the weatherman]

according to weather.com that they has came out with their fall outlook and has both warmer than average and the middle of the country cooler than average and they said that they may have to cut the northren plains out of the cooler forecast by the developed el nino that will not happen(also i don't like this forecast at all andi have gave my two cents about the weather channel because they stink about long range).

[Geos]

Summer will definitely go down as cooler than normal. No denying that! haha

 

About 62° for a low this morning. Sunny out for the first morning of August. Little haze in the air, but not like yesterday.

Should have no problem getting up to yesterdays temp in the low 80s.

[tim the weatherman]

another thing i find exticing is the lrc and i take it back the what i said about it earlier this year and like i has said about the weather channel that i gave my two cents about their longrange because they stink at it and andrew at the weather centre has came out with the fall forecast and two areas he said will be cool and chilly is the plains and the greatlakes and maybe the mid atlantic and new england.

[tim the weatherman]

also another thing i has noticed that the days are getting shorter so that means that fall is around the corner.

[james1976]

I don't know where accuweather is getting this from as it seems every model is showing another cooldown by mid month.
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_07311715_hd30.jpg

[tim the weatherman]

I don't know where accuweather is getting this from as it seems every model is showing another cooldown by mid month.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_07311715_hd30.jpg

andrew is saying the same thing at the weather centre that a cooldown is happening at mid month all because of a typhoon hitting japan by the 9th and do the math that right around that time it supposed to hit around the 15th to the 19th timeframe.

[Tom]

I don't know where accuweather is getting this from as it seems every model is showing another cooldown by mid month.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_07311715_hd30.jpg

They are going to bust bad on this one...lol

 

Meantime, 12z Euro painting an intense severe weather out break in NE IA/N IL Wednesday...

[Tom]

Updated CPC outlook for August...

[tim the weatherman]

hearing about funnel clouds in westren il today one in woodford county and stark and south central bureau county near tiskilwa and near bradford and the other near peoria over woodford between secor and benson.

[Tom]

We have officially peaked through the warmest part of the summer and now the average temperatures begin their decline in the Northern Hemisphere as the days are getting shorter and sun becomes less direct. 

 

This weekend has to be a top 3 of the Summer.  Highs in the low/mid 80's with low humidity's.  Perfect conditions if you ask me.

[East Dubzz]

I wouldn't know, I'm stuck inside doing parts inventory all weekend..

[james1976]

yes, this weekend and all of last week have been perfect summer weather.

[james1976]

updated 8-14 temps
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Geos]

Hit 87° here today. One of the top 5 hottest days of this summer. It has failed to hit 90° at UGN this summer so far.

[james1976]

long range GFS starting to look a bit more zonal.

[Geos]

Storms starting to pop in Wisconsin. 

Satellite shows them nicely. Warm front sure brought the high dewpoints in today!

 

[Tom]

Just as I rolled into my garage, torrential rains along with small hail started pouring from the skies and along came this massive downdraft with severe winds that toppled my neighbors tree!!!!  Holy crapola!  Haven't seen that since the severe wx we had back here about 3 years ago when 100,000+ residents were without power.  Looking at the radar, this cell must have been just blown up right above my house.

[Tom]

Both CFSv2 and Euro Control agree with a cool shot come beginning of next week...