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august 2014 observations and discussions


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Had a really strong downpour around 6 o'clock. Man it was raining so hard it was hard to see driving and I wasn't even going that fast. Very windy as well.

That's pretty much how it was earlier today around 5:00 or 6:00...torrential rains, getting hit again with the last batch of storms.  Easily over 2.50" in my town.

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Since yesterday the models have shifted the heavy rain Wednesday/Thursday farther northeast into eastern Iowa.  I hope that pans out because I think we've only had about a half inch since July 12th.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Since yesterday the models have shifted the heavy rain Wednesday/Thursday farther northeast into eastern Iowa.  I hope that pans out because I think we've only had about a half inch since July 12th.

Hopefully Mother Nature shares the wealth :) ...my town got the bullseye from yesterday's rains...3-4"

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im right on the ne edge of that rain. that high pressure to the ne is really cutting it off. kinda reminds me of a winter system when a high pressure makes for a sharp cutoff. i always hate those situations. always seems like im on the outside looking in. i do think ill get some rain eventually with this sytem though.

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There is a good chance we can see some 90's towards the last 10 days of August.  We may see some ridging build back into the region briefly and spike temps.  Might get to 90F or better for the 4th time at ORD for the summer.

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There is a good chance we can see some 90's towards the last 10 days of August.  We may see some ridging build back into the region briefly and spike temps.  Might get to 90F or better for the 4th time at ORD for the summer.

long range GFS thru the 22nd looks cooler than normal. Are there signs of hot weather after that?

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way i just heard that this fall will be chilly source accuweather and they are saying that the polar vortex will make an apperance in the northeast i know that the polar vortex will be felt here in the midwest as well and they are saying too that from mid to late month next month will be chilly.

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I'm really starting to think we see our first sustained heat wave of the season in 10 days or so.  Could be about a week long heat wave.  Euro/GFS are coming into agreement.  The pattern that is showing up looks ripe for this to happen.

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I'm not seeing much of a heat wave on GFS. am i missing something?

Ya, GFS not buying into it, but Euro Ensembles and the CFSv2 bringing the heat into our region.  I don't mind, its been a while since we have seen 90's anyway.  ORD has only had 3 90's so far this season which is much below normal.  Maybe it has a chance to hit 6 or 7.  After this though, 90's will be a distant memory.

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The latest 12z GFS run is starting to show a ridge building into the region around the 20th or so.  This makes sense as the jet stream is reaching its weakest point this time of year and so it can be expected to see some sustained warmth. 

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The latest 12z GFS run is starting to show a ridge building into the region around the 20th or so.  This makes sense as the jet stream is reaching its weakest point this time of year and so it can be expected to see some sustained warmth. 

haha yeah i just seen that. GFS wasnt fully loaded when i looked earlier. yup, looks like a ridge wants to develop.

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I'm not buying a heat wave (3 or more consecutive days of 90+) yet, at least here. We have rarely risen above 85F this summer, and I think with warmer temps we will see more storms, which will create enough cloud debris to keep any heat wave in check. The one caveat would be if we continue to dry out, making 90F easier to achieve if it comes with lower dewpoints than we normally see with a ridge.

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Long range GFS is continuing to show a nice ridge developing from the Midwest on east. Not sure where you're getting this information from.

If you looked you would see i posted this earlier this morning so I was going off the 6z run. 12z run is completely different and shows a big ridge. Prolly gonna flip flop a bit since it's long range.

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I'm beginning to see a lot of consistency on the Euro ensembles for a torchy Day 10-15 and beyond to finish off August.  I don't mind if the heat comes actually, bring it.  Our AC's have had enough time off this summer and they will be humming later next weekend.  Just hoping Labor Day weekend is nice to finish off this Summer season.

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Yeah, let's wait for football to come around to finally get hot.

Perfect timing, right???  I remember training camp back when I played soccer in high school in the heat...D**n it sucks.  I can't imagine how it is with 25lbs of added weight on your body.

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