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august 2014 observations and discussions

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#51
james1976

Posted 07 August 2014 - 06:40 AM

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There is a good chance we can see some 90's towards the last 10 days of August.  We may see some ridging build back into the region briefly and spike temps.  Might get to 90F or better for the 4th time at ORD for the summer.

long range GFS thru the 22nd looks cooler than normal. Are there signs of hot weather after that?



#52
Tom

Posted 07 August 2014 - 06:45 AM

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long range GFS thru the 22nd looks cooler than normal. Are there signs of hot weather after that?

Not GFS, but Euro and CFSv2 show a brief 1-2 day spike...nothing to get excited about just yet. 



#53
tim the weatherman

Posted 07 August 2014 - 07:16 AM

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way i just heard that this fall will be chilly source accuweather and they are saying that the polar vortex will make an apperance in the northeast i know that the polar vortex will be felt here in the midwest as well and they are saying too that from mid to late month next month will be chilly.



#54
Tom

Posted 07 August 2014 - 09:58 AM

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Lake Michigan hit season high water temp of 74F....



#55
james1976

Posted 07 August 2014 - 11:05 AM

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Lake Michigan hit season high water temp of 74F....

isnt that cold??



#56
Tom

Posted 07 August 2014 - 12:18 PM

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isnt that cold??

Not really, mid 70's water temps are actually doable...



#57
Tom

Posted 07 August 2014 - 12:55 PM

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12z Euro spitting out some real chilly air in N WI for next Tuesday...upper 50's for highs!



#58
Tom

Posted 08 August 2014 - 07:35 AM

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I'm really starting to think we see our first sustained heat wave of the season in 10 days or so.  Could be about a week long heat wave.  Euro/GFS are coming into agreement.  The pattern that is showing up looks ripe for this to happen.



#59
james1976

Posted 08 August 2014 - 08:42 AM

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oh well, it is summer i guess. bound to happen at some point. we've been below normal most of the summer.



#60
james1976

Posted 08 August 2014 - 08:45 AM

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I'm not seeing much of a heat wave on GFS. am i missing something?



#61
james1976

Posted 08 August 2014 - 08:48 AM

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this is through the 21st
814temp.new.gif



#62
Tom

Posted 08 August 2014 - 08:48 AM

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I'm not seeing much of a heat wave on GFS. am i missing something?

Ya, GFS not buying into it, but Euro Ensembles and the CFSv2 bringing the heat into our region.  I don't mind, its been a while since we have seen 90's anyway.  ORD has only had 3 90's so far this season which is much below normal.  Maybe it has a chance to hit 6 or 7.  After this though, 90's will be a distant memory.



#63
Tom

Posted 08 August 2014 - 09:00 AM

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The latest 12z GFS run is starting to show a ridge building into the region around the 20th or so.  This makes sense as the jet stream is reaching its weakest point this time of year and so it can be expected to see some sustained warmth. 



#64
james1976

Posted 08 August 2014 - 11:01 AM

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The latest 12z GFS run is starting to show a ridge building into the region around the 20th or so.  This makes sense as the jet stream is reaching its weakest point this time of year and so it can be expected to see some sustained warmth. 

haha yeah i just seen that. GFS wasnt fully loaded when i looked earlier. yup, looks like a ridge wants to develop.



#65
james1976

Posted 09 August 2014 - 05:50 AM

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GFS has completely lost the idea of a heat wave. Whats Euro looking like?



#66
james1976

Posted 09 August 2014 - 05:57 AM

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814temp.new.gif



#67
Tom

Posted 09 August 2014 - 06:51 AM

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00z Euro Control still showing baking heat and the ensembles...



#68
Tom

Posted 09 August 2014 - 06:54 AM

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CFSv2 backed off and looks like the GFS....

 



#69
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 09 August 2014 - 08:19 AM

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I'm not buying a heat wave (3 or more consecutive days of 90+) yet, at least here. We have rarely risen above 85F this summer, and I think with warmer temps we will see more storms, which will create enough cloud debris to keep any heat wave in check. The one caveat would be if we continue to dry out, making 90F easier to achieve if it comes with lower dewpoints than we normally see with a ridge.

#70
FiNsTa

Posted 09 August 2014 - 11:29 AM

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GFS has completely lost the idea of a heat wave. Whats Euro looking like?


Long range GFS is continuing to show a nice ridge developing from the Midwest on east. Not sure where you're getting this information from.

#71
Tom

Posted 09 August 2014 - 12:19 PM

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12z Euro for consecutive runs trying to pump upper 80's/low 90's near are region, esp N IL...



#72
Tom

Posted 09 August 2014 - 12:24 PM

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Latest CFSv2 run...there may be some severe wx potential in and around the Midwest with this sharp contrast in temperatures....



#73
james1976

Posted 09 August 2014 - 12:28 PM

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Long range GFS is continuing to show a nice ridge developing from the Midwest on east. Not sure where you're getting this information from.

If you looked you would see i posted this earlier this morning so I was going off the 6z run. 12z run is completely different and shows a big ridge. Prolly gonna flip flop a bit since it's long range.



#74
james1976

Posted 09 August 2014 - 12:32 PM

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Right now i'd buy the Euro since it's been more consistent.



#75
Tom

Posted 09 August 2014 - 03:27 PM

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I'm beginning to see a lot of consistency on the Euro ensembles for a torchy Day 10-15 and beyond to finish off August.  I don't mind if the heat comes actually, bring it.  Our AC's have had enough time off this summer and they will be humming later next weekend.  Just hoping Labor Day weekend is nice to finish off this Summer season.



#76
East Dubzz

Posted 09 August 2014 - 04:00 PM

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Yeah, let's wait for football to come around to finally get hot.

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 13.00"

June rainfall total: 3.69"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.16" (4/28)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0


#77
Tom

Posted 09 August 2014 - 04:05 PM

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Yeah, let's wait for football to come around to finally get hot.

Perfect timing, right???  I remember training camp back when I played soccer in high school in the heat...d**n it sucks.  I can't imagine how it is with 25lbs of added weight on your body.



#78
james1976

Posted 09 August 2014 - 06:35 PM

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now those are maps that we are not used to seeing!


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#79
tim the weatherman

Posted 10 August 2014 - 09:56 AM

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just found out that the great lakes and to the northeast will have a visit from the polar virtex from mid to late september and the way accuweather is saying from their fall forecast that this is a chilly one.



#80
Tom

Posted 10 August 2014 - 10:03 AM

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Model flip flopping on the heat...Euro Control went cooler now to...



#81
Tom

Posted 11 August 2014 - 09:52 AM

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This could become a significant heat wave if everything works out just right.  Euro ensembles/control still showing a long stretch of very warm weather to close out August and the CFSv2 now flipping to a very warm to almost hot situation.  If this works out the way it is showing now, the summer as a whole may turn out slightly above normal in some areas.



#82
james1976

Posted 11 August 2014 - 01:51 PM

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cloudy and low 70s today. looks a bit cool the next couple days before a slow warmup.



#83
james1976

Posted 11 August 2014 - 02:48 PM

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Andrew was calling for a cold shot from Aug 15-19 based off the typhoon that hit Japan Aug 9th but that isnt going to happen according to the forecasts and current models.
http://theweathercen...cold-blast.html



#84
james1976

Posted 11 August 2014 - 02:52 PM

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18z GFS losing its grip on heat. But it's only one run.



#85
Tom

Posted 11 August 2014 - 02:53 PM

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Andrew was calling for a cold shot from Aug 15-19 based off the typhoon that hit Japan Aug 9th but that isnt going to happen according to the forecasts and current models.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

Surprisingly, the cool shot wont come but these below normal temps today through Friday make up for it.  Can't beat it when temps are in the 70's this time of year.  Just getting ready for the heat when it does come.



#86
Tom

Posted 12 August 2014 - 08:57 AM

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Feels like October today, cold winds and cloudy skies with occasional showers and a 63F temp....might not get out of the 60's today.


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#87
Tom

Posted 12 August 2014 - 12:57 PM

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Euro keeps pushing the heat back towards the 20th, initially it had it for this Sunday.  Still looks like its coming sooner or later but not as long.  The transient/amplified pattern will continue.  Might have a major severe wx outbreak when the cold comes. 


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#88
james1976

Posted 12 August 2014 - 02:58 PM

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Euro keeps pushing the heat back towards the 20th, initially it had it for this Sunday.  Still looks like its coming sooner or later but not as long.  The transient/amplified pattern will continue.  Might have a major severe wx outbreak when the cold comes. 

that first image...dang! that looks like a major cold shot. as for the heat its looking more likely that it will be short-lived.


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#89
Tom

Posted 12 August 2014 - 04:10 PM

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Check out how much Lake Michigan has cooled over the past couple days...



#90
Tom

Posted 13 August 2014 - 08:45 AM

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It's crazy to see upper 40's water temps showing up on the eastern shores of Lake Michigan.  Some major upwelling most likely occurring.



#91
james1976

Posted 13 August 2014 - 08:51 AM

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wish that would happen in the Pacific. lol


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#92
Tom

Posted 13 August 2014 - 09:31 AM

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12z GFS says what heat wave???  This -NAO setting up could gear up some stormy and cooler weather instead.


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#93
FiNsTa

Posted 13 August 2014 - 09:47 AM

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so much for a significant heatwave.



#94
Tom

Posted 13 August 2014 - 09:55 AM

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so much for a significant heatwave.

Yup, its been the same pattern for the last 10 months and I don't see the new LRC pattern to be that much different heading into the Fall/Winter.



#95
james1976

Posted 13 August 2014 - 11:05 AM

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yeah i noticed GFS has trended much cooler compared to recent runs. im happy with that.
what is 12z Euro showing?



#96
FiNsTa

Posted 13 August 2014 - 11:44 AM

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bring on the heat, i'm nowhere close to ready for fall yet.



#97
Tom

Posted 13 August 2014 - 11:55 AM

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yeah i noticed GFS has trended much cooler compared to recent runs. im happy with that.
what is 12z Euro showing?

Mid/Upper 80's next Thu, Friday is almost hot and into Saturday it looks like...seems like this run it could last a few days.



#98
james1976

Posted 13 August 2014 - 01:18 PM

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Mid/Upper 80's next Thu, Friday is almost hot and into Saturday it looks like...seems like this run it could last a few days.

and 50s in N Dakota?!



#99
james1976

Posted 13 August 2014 - 01:18 PM

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thats a sharp contrast setting up somewhere in the upper midwest.



#100
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 13 August 2014 - 02:52 PM

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Today marks the 10th day in a row with highs below 80F in Milwaukee. There's a decent chance we stretch it to at least 12 days, possibly two straight weeks. Considering we're talking about the first half of August, that is pretty impressive.
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