august 2014 observations and discussions

[Tom]

This could become a significant heat wave if everything works out just right.  Euro ensembles/control still showing a long stretch of very warm weather to close out August and the CFSv2 now flipping to a very warm to almost hot situation.  If this works out the way it is showing now, the summer as a whole may turn out slightly above normal in some areas.

[james1976]

cloudy and low 70s today. looks a bit cool the next couple days before a slow warmup.

[james1976]

Andrew was calling for a cold shot from Aug 15-19 based off the typhoon that hit Japan Aug 9th but that isnt going to happen according to the forecasts and current models.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/08/mid-august-unseasonable-cold-blast.html

[james1976]

18z GFS losing its grip on heat. But it's only one run.

[Tom]

Andrew was calling for a cold shot from Aug 15-19 based off the typhoon that hit Japan Aug 9th but that isnt going to happen according to the forecasts and current models.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

Surprisingly, the cool shot wont come but these below normal temps today through Friday make up for it.  Can't beat it when temps are in the 70's this time of year.  Just getting ready for the heat when it does come.

[Tom]

Feels like October today, cold winds and cloudy skies with occasional showers and a 63F temp....might not get out of the 60's today.

[Tom]

Euro keeps pushing the heat back towards the 20th, initially it had it for this Sunday.  Still looks like its coming sooner or later but not as long.  The transient/amplified pattern will continue.  Might have a major severe wx outbreak when the cold comes. 

[james1976]

Euro keeps pushing the heat back towards the 20th, initially it had it for this Sunday.  Still looks like its coming sooner or later but not as long.  The transient/amplified pattern will continue.  Might have a major severe wx outbreak when the cold comes. 

that first image...dang! that looks like a major cold shot. as for the heat its looking more likely that it will be short-lived.

[Tom]

Check out how much Lake Michigan has cooled over the past couple days...

[Tom]

It's crazy to see upper 40's water temps showing up on the eastern shores of Lake Michigan.  Some major upwelling most likely occurring.

[james1976]

wish that would happen in the Pacific. lol

[Tom]

12z GFS says what heat wave???  This -NAO setting up could gear up some stormy and cooler weather instead.

[FiNsTa]

so much for a significant heatwave.

[Tom]

so much for a significant heatwave.

Yup, its been the same pattern for the last 10 months and I don't see the new LRC pattern to be that much different heading into the Fall/Winter.

[james1976]

yeah i noticed GFS has trended much cooler compared to recent runs. im happy with that.
what is 12z Euro showing?

[FiNsTa]

bring on the heat, i'm nowhere close to ready for fall yet.

[Tom]

yeah i noticed GFS has trended much cooler compared to recent runs. im happy with that.

what is 12z Euro showing?

Mid/Upper 80's next Thu, Friday is almost hot and into Saturday it looks like...seems like this run it could last a few days.

[james1976]

Mid/Upper 80's next Thu, Friday is almost hot and into Saturday it looks like...seems like this run it could last a few days.

and 50s in N Dakota?!

[james1976]

thats a sharp contrast setting up somewhere in the upper midwest.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Today marks the 10th day in a row with highs below 80F in Milwaukee. There's a decent chance we stretch it to at least 12 days, possibly two straight weeks. Considering we're talking about the first half of August, that is pretty impressive.

[james1976]

GFS really starting to show that sharp temp gradient later in the month. Gonna be fun watching where it ends up.

[Niko]

My lows tonight are forecasted to be in the 40's?????!!!!!! Is this August or late September???!! Wow, maybe record low territory tonight.....have to wait and see how that goes.

[Tom]

Check out those temps in Saskatchewan!  Upper 30's are nuts...meanwhile, no 90's showing up in our region...Heat Wave being beaten back like Mike Tyson knocking someone out in the last round!  Hahaha

[tim the weatherman]

Check out those temps in Saskatchewan!  Upper 30's are nuts...meanwhile, no 90's showing up in our region...Heat Wave being beaten back like Mike Tyson knocking someone out in the last round!  Hahaha

you can tell that fall is here up north of the conus so that means that fall will be here towards late next monthdown here in the us.

[james1976]

sharp temp gradient continues to show up on models. gonna be fun to watch unfold.

[james1976]

glad we are going into an active period this weekend into next week. been quite boring lately.

[tim the weatherman]

By the looks of it, it seems like this could be a relatively sustained period of at least average temps. We have 2 blocking highs... the Bermuda high and a ridge off the west coast.(source accuweather fourms) if this pans out throughout the fall then we are in for nasty snowstorms for this winter.

[james1976]

looks to be an active zonal flow setting up. prolly fairly seasonal temps for a while

[james1976]

GFS starting to trend back warmer....keeping the majority of the cool weather in Canada.

[Tom]

GFS starting to trend back warmer....keeping the majority of the cool weather in Canada.

Upper 80's are a good bet, MAYBE a spotty 90 here and there...but the cool comes back and lots of rain in the region will keep things cooler.

[james1976]

temps have been lowered here for the weekend due to clouds and rain. and i believe my are is expected to be on the cold side of the low. ill take it.

[james1976]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[BrianJK]

By the looks of it, it seems like this could be a relatively sustained period of at least average temps. We have 2 blocking highs... the Bermuda high and a ridge off the west coast.(source accuweather fourms) if this pans out throughout the fall then we are in for nasty snowstorms for this winter.

 

This is a HUGE day...  the24weatherman just made his first ever post with complete thoughts properly separated by punctuation.

 

Well done sir, and congratulations!  Keep up the good work buddy!

[FiNsTa]

This is a HUGE day...  the24weatherman just made his first ever post with complete thoughts properly separated by punctuation.

 

Well done sir, and congratulations!  Keep up the good work buddy!

[james1976]

cloudy and low-mid 70s here all day. had a few sprinkles but the main event is just missing me to my south and west. kinda muggy but im liking the cooler temps.

[james1976]

GFS has been showing a big system around the 25th. Reminds me of a winter type system. Moves from sw-ne and has a ton of moisture with cold air (for summer standards) wrapping in behind it.

[james1976]

havent seen this in a while
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[james1976]

warm GFS run tonight. very summerlike. would the warmer pacific waters be influencing models yet???

[james1976]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_08151837_hd26.jpg

[Hawkeye]

The Euro continues to swing wildly from cool to hot to cool to hot to cool in the later range.