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august 2014 observations and discussions


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Spent the entire weekend in downtown Chicago and enjoyed the weather on Saturday.  Unfortunately, the day that we all thought would be the best day to see the Air and Water show it ended up being the worse day.  The show ended up being cancelled today which blew balls!  I wanted to see the F-22 Raptor and the Blue Angels so bad.  Oh well, till next year.

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Looks like the "Preliminary Winter Outlook" tab has been removed for our region.  Maybe tech is updating it or something.  Anyhow, remember how good the Brazilian Meteograms was last year on giving us a "gauge" to our winter?  Well, well, well....looky at what it's showing for this winter...snow events from Mid-December through Feb!  I'm really seeing the fast start to Winter that I had expected last year and a very cold and snowy winter on tap.  I'm sure we will have a consistent NW Flow and at times this winter a persistent Clipper train will evolve in each LRC cycle along with systems coming out of the SW.  The cards to the deck are being shuffled and some pretty nice hands are being laid out by the models.

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Tom, those Brazilian meteograms do that every year, IMO we were just lucky that they happened to be right last year. To me they are the definition of 'weenie'.

The way I see it,  it does make sense to have this type of outlook given the overall pattern I'm seeing this winter.  You can say "weenie" if you want, but if your getting agreement with both the JMA and also the Euro's Seasonal outlook (btw it has a PAC NW Ridge, eastern trough) you can't turn your head and laugh at it.

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The way I see it,  it does make sense to have this type of outlook given the overall pattern I'm seeing this winter.  You can say "weenie" if you want, but if your getting agreement with both the JMA and also the Euro's Seasonal outlook (btw it has a PAC NW Ridge, eastern trough) you can't turn your head and laugh at it.

Tom, have you posted those Euro maps? Maybe I've already seen em, lol.

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Looks like the "Preliminary Winter Outlook" tab has been removed for our region.  Maybe tech is updating it or something.  Anyhow, remember how good the Brazilian Meteograms was last year on giving us a "gauge" to our winter?  Well, well, well....looky at what it's showing for this winter...snow events from Mid-December through Feb!  I'm really seeing the fast start to Winter that I had expected last year and a very cold and snowy winter on tap.  I'm sure we will have a consistent NW Flow and at times this winter a persistent Clipper train will evolve in each LRC cycle along with systems coming out of the SW.  The cards to the deck are being shuffled and some pretty nice hands are being laid out by the models.

Tom, can you imagine my area has a record snowfall year again??!! That would be awesome.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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After our mini heat wave this weekend, a very strong cold front heading this way by next week Tuesday/Wednesday.  Highs near 70F are possible those days.  The amplified pattern continues.  This heat is def going to feel hot from what we have been used to this summer.

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18z GFS showing what the 12z Euro hinted at a major cool shot mid next week.  This fits the LRC's last cycle for the year and predicts a strong cold front for late August.

yes....and with a couple moisture-laden systems. GFS goes crazy. Can't wait to see if it pans out.

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Saturday looks toasty around here with a high in the mid 90's!  I'm going to try and enjoy this hot weekend and spend some time at the beach or on a boat and hit up the Playpen.  This might be the last hot spell of the season.

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Every day the next decent rain chance just keeps getting pushed back further.  Now the Euro has removed any rain for eastern Iowa Wednesday night.  It has Friday night being the next chance.  If that doesn't pan out it has no more rain through mid next week.

 

I've had 0.08" of rain in the last four weeks.  We need some rain!

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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No more rain needed here. Over 5" of rain has fallen this month. Everything is soaked. Speaking of rainfall, heavy thunderstorms today in my area and the whole entire week looks unsettled. What a wet month it has been. Thursday looks to be the driest day of the week. Forecasters are calling for mostly sunny skies with a 10% chance of Rain. Hopefully, dry weather returns for next week. Also, the air is very humid, warm and unstable. By weeks end, I could be nearing 90 degrees. Haven't seen lots of 90's this summer, thats for sure. Minneapolis, MN I think has not reached 90F at all this summer. Talk about extremes.

 

Major cooldown possible in the cards for late August with temps here not getting higher than the lows 60s for highs and lows in the mid 40s. Yup, Autumn is knocking on our doorstep. Bring it on!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Every day the next decent rain chance just keeps getting pushed back further.  Now the Euro has removed any rain for eastern Iowa Wednesday night.  It has Friday night being the next chance.  If that doesn't pan out it has no more rain through mid next week.

 

I've had 0.08" of rain in the last four weeks.  We need some rain!

Yeah, your area has gotten very unlucky. All the other surrounding areas are running well above average in terms of precipitation.

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I have been watching the CFSv2 for the month of September and the majority of the runs are for a cooler outlook in our region, warmer in the east.  Some runs have been very chilly, especially the latest run.  Check out the warmth near Alaska that should create a huge trough in the central U.S.  Something to watch come September.  I know WxBell is calling for a warmer than normal month close by, but I'm having a hard time believing it given the amplified pattern we have been locked in.  The only reason I see which could bring a warmer month is the seasonal change of the jet stream up in Canada that can pump a ridge, but given all the warm waters in the NE Pacific, that wouldn't make sense.  Also, the blocking showing up near Greenland is the wild card if it continues through early Fall.

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I'm liking what the forecasts look like for Labor Day weekend in our region.  Planning on heading to Wisco with my friends to Castle Rock Lake.  Probably staying at Northern Bay Resort.  Hope it turns out nice. 

 

00z Euro scaling back on the # of 90's for the weekend.  Outflow for storms and cloud cover may hamper real hot and humid weather.  Going boating Saturday with some friends, should be nice at the lake with a nice lake breeze.

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Cedar Rapids hit 90 for the first time this summer today.  The dewpoint was up to 79 at one point as well.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Storms bubbling up over the local region.

 

 

Kind of doubt it will get to 90° today! Remember one year the only 90° high was in early September.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Storms bubbling up over the local region.

 

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/images/wisgif32.gif

 

Kind of doubt it will get to 90° today! Remember one year the only 90° high was in early September.

Ya, I just got drenched on from that first line of storms that blossomed out of nowhere.  Very torrential rains in my area over the past few days.  The ground is soaked and very moist.  As for hitting 90F today, it isn't looking likely at ORD since it dropped to 79F just now.

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