Pacific NW August 2014 Discussion

[Jesse]

Dps always will recover during the evening as things decouple. How much remains to be seen.

 

Well yeah. I guess how much is the question.

 

We've been having cooler nights than the valley out here. mid-upper 50s. Closer to the dry air.

[Jesse]

Maybe in October. September looks like a dry month to me, at least in the PNW.

 

The next few weeks (at least) look like blowtorch in my area...if I stop posting it's because I've been locked up

By October southerly flow usually means wet and mild storm systems. Although there are exceptions where we actually have seen summer like muginess even late in the month, 2003 being the most striking example.

[Deweydog]

Well yeah. I guess how much is the question.

 

We've been having cooler nights than the valley out here. mid-upper 50s. Closer to the dry air.

It was 55 here this morning when I left the house.

[Deweydog]

Running and weather was good, I did about 19.8 miles. The traffic around Mist was terrible on Saturday morning, though. We ended up sitting in one spot for 90 minutes until we finally ended up taking a detour all the way past Astoria. Organizers need to get their collective s**t together next year.

The traffic issues on 202 have always been an issue.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not surprised. We are having the warmest summer in Seattle cause this is the year I get to live in Seattle during the summer. I have ******* terrible luck.

 

 

Yeah... its been horrific!   Highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s or low 60s.    Shocking nightmare.    Inferno.   

 

The warmest summer in Seattle is incredibly pleasant compared to most places... including the Tri-Cities.    

 

You are a strange dude.   

[Jesse]

It was 55 here this morning when I left the house.

Rural.

[Deweydog]

Rural.

So are you.

[Jesse]

So are you.

I know. I just mean the more urban parts of the Western valleys were warm.

[epiceast]

Yeah... its been horrific!   Highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s or low 60s.    Shocking nightmare.    Inferno.   

 

The warmest summer in Seattle is incredibly pleasant compared to most places... including the Tri-Cities.    

 

You are a strange dude.   

I don't have Air Conditioning in Seattle. Also the Columbia River is colder than lake Washington this year.

[Black Hole]

Jesse, I know you have been wondering about the warm lows lately. My personal belief is that it probably stems back to ocean temperatures. The water is warmer so no doubt the air is a little warmer and moister than average out there. That regularly pours inland and so I think that probably tends to advect in warmer than average air and somewhat more moist air than average. I could be totally wrong but its just my feeling.

[BLI snowman]

The traffic issues on 202 have always been an issue.

 

No doubt. My buddy has done it 17 times though and swore up and down that this year was the worst he'd seen.

[TT-SEA]

I don't have Air Conditioning in Seattle. Also the Columbia River is colder than lake Washington this year.

 

 

Who gives a crap about the Columbia River temp vs Lake Washington. 

 

Lake Washington has been running in the low to mid 70s with occasional dips into the upper 60s.    It still feels pretty cool... takes some getting used to when you jump in.  

 

No A/C here either.   Windows open and fans work just fine.    Its been a heavenly summer for outdoor activities and otherwise.

 

My boys prefer Lake Sammamish for wakeboarding and swimming because they say Lake Washington is just too cold.    And we have been on Lake Washington numerous times this summer. 

[TT-SEA]

Weekend looking a little less troughy... definitely drier.

[TT-SEA]

60-degree dewpoint at PDX this morning... it was sort of obvious the dewpoint was going to recover last night.    Someone has not been paying attention.    Also... the MOS guidance provides very good detail in this regard.   

 

The dewpoints will begin dropping Friday evening for the weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Mark Nelsen has a theory that the warm SSTs over the NE Pacific have led to feedback loop of high pressure over that region and a lack of marine pushes this summer.

 

http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/is-it-the-warmest-summer-ever-in-portland/#comments

 

Not matter how you slice it... when the SSTs are this warm over the NE Pacific then our weather runs warm (particularly at night).   That is why I was so confident in a very warm summer forecast this year.   

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.25.2014.gif

 

You can debate chicken and egg all day... but the warm end result is almost a given.    And it worked perfectly again this year.

 

At PDX... 2014 comes in just behind 2009 and 2004.     Exactly what I was saying back in May... those 2 years were the best summer analogs.

[Jesse]

12z Euro looks fairly benign. Definitely not showing the massive pattern change advertised a few days ago.

[BLI snowman]

As a local living near the route, I can't tell you how much we hate this event.  The runners are fine.  The dumbfucks driving the vans 5 miles an hour down winding country roads with no shoulders in the middle of the night are a major ******* menace.  With 15 vans putting down the road with their headlights on, its next to impossible to see the runners in the other lane.  It amazes the s**t of me that none have been killed yet.  Its only a matter of time.  Some lawyer will get rich when that happens.  They need thousands of less participants and alternate routes to exchange points.  At least it wasn't on opening day of hunting season this year.

 

Yeah I can understand the locals hating it, especially at Seaside. 

 

The exchange areas were pretty sloppy. To be fair it's pretty difficult coordinating these middle-of-the-night dropoffs in the middle of the Coast Range, but there was an unbelievable bottleneck by the time you got to Mist. Hundreds of vans not moving and nowhere to put them. Luckily Highway 47 was there and no one else thought to utilize it.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Mark Nelsen has a theory that the warm SSTs over the NE Pacific have led to feedback loop of high pressure over that region and a lack of marine pushes this summer.

 

http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/is-it-the-warmest-summer-ever-in-portland/#comments

 

Not matter how you slice it... when the SSTs are this warm over the NE Pacific then our weather runs warm (particularly at night).   That is why I was so confident in a very warm summer forecast this year.   

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.25.2014.gif

 

You can debate chicken and egg all day... but the warm end result is almost a given.    And it worked perfectly again this year.

 

At PDX... 2014 comes in just behind 2009 and 2004.     Exactly what I was saying back in May... those 2 years were the best summer analogs.

Minimum temps in the San Francisco Bay area have been warmer than average closer to the coast as well, and is very likely due to the warmer than normal offshore SSTs.

[Deweydog]

Mark Nelsen has a theory that the warm SSTs over the NE Pacific have led to feedback loop of high pressure over that region and a lack of marine pushes this summer.

 

http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/is-it-the-warmest-summer-ever-in-portland/#comments

 

Not matter how you slice it... when the SSTs are this warm over the NE Pacific then our weather runs warm (particularly at night).   That is why I was so confident in a very warm summer forecast this year.   

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.25.2014.gif

 

You can debate chicken and egg all day... but the warm end result is almost a given.    And it worked perfectly again this year.

 

At PDX... 2014 comes in just behind 2009 and 2004.     Exactly what I was saying back in May... those 2 years were the best summer analogs.

 

Oh Tim...

 

All due respect to Mark Nelsen, but the predominant pattern this summer has NOT been eastern Pacific ridging in the upper levels.  If that were the case we would have seen far more in the way of long-fetch NW'erlies over the immediately coastal waters.  The predominant pattern was SW'erly flow, not NW'erly, hence the strong monsoonal influence.  Hard to get monsoonal moisture to wrap around from the NW.  But if it were to happen, I'm sure you could predict it!!!

 

In the end, it's not about chickens or eggs.  Common sense is king.  

[TT-SEA]

Oh Tim...

 

All due respect to Mark Nelsen, but the predominant pattern this summer has NOT been eastern Pacific ridging in the upper levels. If that were the case we would have seen far more in the way of long-fetch NW'erlies over the immediately coastal waters. The predominant pattern was SW'erly flow, not NW'erly, hence the strong monsoonal influence. Hard to get monsoonal moisture to wrap around from the NW. But if it were to happen, I'm sure you could predict it!!!

 

In the end, it's not about chickens or eggs. Common sense is king.

I guess you should talk to Mark about it. I understand what you are saying.

 

I know one thing... when the SSTA map looks like that in late spring you can bank on a warm summer.    Whatever the reason.

[Deweydog]

I guess you should talk to Mark about it. I understand what you are saying.

 

I know one thing... when the SSTA map looks like that in late spring you can bank on a warm summer. Whatever the reason.

I'm sure there's something to that indirectly. Probably had something to do with the fact everyone seemed to be going warm for this summer.

[TT-SEA]

I'm sure there's something to that indirectly. Probably had something to do with the fact everyone seemed to be going warm for this summer.

 

 

Not everyone of course.

 

A certain posted was embolden by a late June trough and the slower than expected onset of really warm weather... enough to excitedly proclaim that this summer was going to surprise lots of people.     Also remember those 'plunging SSTs' in June?  

[Deweydog]

Not everyone of course.

 

A certain posted was embolden by a late June trough and the slower than expected onset of really warm weather... enough to excitedly proclaim that this summer was going to surprise lots of people. Also remember those 'plunging SSTs' in June?

Let it go.

[Deweydog]

In other news, residents at the Portland International Airport suffered through 60+ degree minimum #20 for August this morning, #8 at 64 or above.  Still two shy of the monthly record set last year, breaking the previous record of 21 set in 2004.  

 

But the most impressive anomaly is the 63+ lows.  13 for the month.  Nearest competitor is 10 in July 1996.  Speaking of July, it fell short of the monthly record by three at 17.  1998 had 20, followed by 2007 with 18.  1998 is also the two month standard with 38.  

[Jesse]

In other news, residents at the Portland International Airport suffered through 60+ degree minimum #20 for August this morning, #8 at 64 or above. Still two shy of the monthly record set last year, breaking the previous record of 21 set in 2004.

 

But the most impressive anomaly is the 63+ lows. 13 for the month. Nearest competitor is 10 in July 1996. Speaking of July, it fell short of the monthly record by three at 17. 1998 had 20, followed by 2007 with 18. 1998 is also the two month standard with 38.

Think they'll rack up one more tomorrow?

[Deweydog]

Think they'll rack up one more tomorrow?

 

Probably, but that should do it.  

[Jesse]

Probably, but that should do it.

Last week at this time I would have never imagined we were in for another stretch of 60+ lows.

 

It's been a long, hot summer.

[Deweydog]

Last week at this time I would have never imagined we were in for another stretch of 60+ lows.

 

It's been a long, hot summer.

 

It's definitely been lovely.  As for this week's stretch, it was kind of bummer not to see more of a classic heat low pattern as it looked to be several days ago.  Just more north/south gradient stuff with poor decoupling.  

[Jesse]

It's definitely been lovely.  As for this week's stretch, it was kind of bummer not to see more of a classic heat low pattern as it looked to be several days ago.  Just more north/south gradient stuff with poor decoupling.  

 

Ironically the heat low pattern would probably have lead to cooler anomalies overall.

[BLI snowman]

95 at Eugene today. Day #29 of 90+ of the summer there.

 

I remember Flatiron laughing when I called them Sacramento lite last year. And now it's even more true this year.

[Deweydog]

Ironically the heat low pattern would probably have lead to cooler anomalies overall.

 

Probably so... I imagine the lower humidity and better decoupling due to the warmer thermal belt would have at least got PDX down to 58-60 or so the last two nights.  This particular air mass stayed perfectly mixed.  This morning was delightful leaving the house around 6am.  

[Jesse]

95 at Eugene today. Day #29 of 90+ of the summer there.

 

I remember Flatiron laughing when I called them Sacramento lite last year. And now it's even more true this year.

 

Have there been any summers really comparable to the last two in recorded history? As far as the persistent warmth and mild nights.

[BLI snowman]

Have there been any summers really comparable to the last two in recorded history? As far as the persistent warmth and mild nights.

 

Any? Sure. I certainly wouldn't call either of them unprecedented.

[Jesse]

Any? Sure. I certainly wouldn't call either of them unprecedented.

Give me some years.

 

I would say you'd be hard pressed to find any other summer with such warm lows overall in particular for Oregon and Washington.

[Deweydog]

Give me some years.

 

I would say you'd be hard pressed to find any other summer with such warm lows overall in particular for Oregon and Washington.

 

Beware Wenatchee's steroidal numbers!!!

 

I don't have the energy to look it up, but aside from setting their all-time max/min record they have an absolute shitload of 70+ lows.  I didn't keep track, but I would imagine it was pretty crooked number.  

[Jesse]

Beware Wenatchee's steroidal numbers!!!

That wasn't me.

[TT-SEA]

Probably so... I imagine the lower humidity and better decoupling due to the warmer thermal belt would have at least got PDX down to 58-60 or so the last two nights.  This particular air mass stayed perfectly mixed.  This morning was delightful leaving the house around 6am.  

 

 

It has been so nice in the evenings and in the mornings.   

[BLI snowman]

Give me some years.

 

I would say you'd be hard pressed to find any other summer with such warm lows overall in particular for Oregon and Washington.

 

1958? 1990? 1996? 1998? 2004?

[Jesse]

1958? 1990? 1996? 1998? 2004?

I figured we'd surpassed those.

[Deweydog]

That wasn't me.

 

Looks like they ended up with 18 for the summer.  Oddly enough, they also set a record low on 7-24 with 53 degrees.