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Approaching Pattern Discussion ..


richard mann

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...

 
Some main resources .. updating and pertinent to whatever more current circumstance. 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml
Analysis/Satellite Composite
(N Amer/Pacific)  -  http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc12.gif


http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/pacsfcf00/unsized.gif

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/
Pacific Products
North Pacific Surface Analyses
3 (-14) Day Loop(s)

 
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/charts/850-hpa-500-hpa

Main NWS "Area" Discussions .. often referring to pattern status.
SEW PQR MFR EKA

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  AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 
  300 PM PDT SUN AUG 3 2014 
   
  .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC  
  NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
  ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDWEEK. WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN  
  WARM AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING  
  MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO THE LOWLANDS FOLLOWED BY SUNNY AFTERNOONS.       @

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Added to the main resources that I've made accessible routed to above related to the main theme here, …
 
.. kind of fun to check where looking at the idea of larger pattern generation and development more generally.
 
http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/polar/index.php?type=polar-ir-12#
 
Check the "product menu". In addition to the IR parameter, there's also a WV setting. 
 
.. Of more incidental note here, the loop numbers 6-12-24 and 48, are for images 3-hourly; not hourly. And with this also of note, the main geographical boarders of this resource, don't appear until the fuller set of images has loaded.

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  • 2 weeks later...

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Here's the extent of cold's consolidation looked at along with general distribution at this point as shown depicted at the 850mb pres./ temp height. 
 
http://www.proxigee.com/14081512z_nhem_850-t.png
(Click for larger image.)
 
This as compared with what they had been a week ago.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/14080812z_nhem_850-t.png
 
 Difficult to tell with looking at these two depictions alone, but over this period, colder air mass looked at more specifically, has been retracting daily, steadily more northward. And with this, should continue to do so through the 19th, .. lending to a bit more general consolidation of cold north before it begins to move more south again, at that point.   
 
With these ideas, and with otherwise looking at colder air's main movement potential more eastward, on or near the 17th, main cold should begin to move more assertively east, and with this maintain a generally more stepped up pace east through the 25th.
 
 ..  This combined movement of colder air mass should lend to a generally more zonal flow and patterning from the 17th through the 25th, with post the 19th cold north of the Jet being caused to move daily gradually more south.

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What are your latest thoughts on the approaching patterns? Do you see a stable regime with a continuation of what we have been seeing or a changeup?

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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What are your latest thoughts on the approaching patterns? Do you see a stable regime with a continuation of what we have been seeing or a changeup?

 

hey Derrick.

 

.. Basically more "stable". But not more of the same.

 

With what I've projected recently main and broader colder air mass movement wise and focusedi.e. where looking at and considering colder air's future both more latitudinal and more longitudinal both movement together with distribution more general, …

 

For from Aug. 20th through the first few days to a week into Sept…   http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/605-mid-summer-2014-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=31525

 

 Main ideas more at and from this point, cold's spread daily, steadily more south through Sept. 2nd, while at the same time slowing east, daily more through Sept. 6th or 7th. 

 
.. I'd say that things looked at more broad-scope and across the board will be moving toward increasingly more meridional.

 

 

With this more general, where considering the impact of this combination of colder air movement on main and broader pattern development, and while at the same time noting just where cold is situated mainly at this point looked at more in particularly, …

 

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur  .. Also check the 500mb and 300mb levels.

 

.. main troughing setting up and being focused mainly, out over the Central Pacific, and more just East of the Rockies. This troughing in both cases, being both fairly persistent and moving eastward only more slowly. And with general ridging setting up more between this troughing. General ridging, as in not all the amplified. 

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What are your latest thoughts on the approaching patterns? Do you see a stable regime with a continuation of what we have been seeing or a changeup?

If I may give my thoughts...I see a continuation of western troughing until September 5-10, before the development of large scale lift in the WPAC (associated with the propagation of an MJO event) leads to enhanced Rossby wave action over the NPAC, and a ridge in the vicinity of the PNW. Question is where will the ridge set up? It could set up along on just off the west coast, which could keep the trough over the Rockies/Plains/Midwest..or it could set up over the entirety of western North America..which will lead to a warm west/cold east scenario. I'm not sure which will unfold yet, but I favor the idea of western ridging resuming between September 5-10.

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Thanks guys! I know at least for a deterministic stand point models seem to keep the same general idea going the next two weeks with periodic cool troughs here.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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If I may give my thoughts...I see a continuation of western troughing until September 5-10, before the development of .......

 

Drop whatever thinking that you like in here "Phil". But if you could perhaps try to keep the timeframe and scope of what you do a bit more in line with the main theme that I've tried to represent with the title to this thread .. I think what you have to say regarding the main patterning approaching the PNW, would be a lot more clear.

 

With my response to what Derrick had asked above, with considering his location together with his not having specified just where he'd been considering (the PNW / Far West more generally, or more through to where he is.) .. I'd broadened the scope of my own impressions a bit.

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  • 2 weeks later...

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140903 15z goes10-West IR -  @
 
Looked at set together with fall's more initial approach more basic, with colder air mass having begun to regress daily more northwardfollowing its more general expansion more south over the past two weeks or so, …
 
.. More general pattern wise, things should be focused progressively (daily.) more northward. This with the current more meridional set up being caused to shift to more zonal for a few days for in a few days, with colder air's brief step up in pace more eastward from the 5th through the 8th or so.
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=30748
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=30791

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140906 15z goes10-West IR -  @
 
More basically looked at the result of colder air's having been in general recession mode since the 3rd, this while at the same time having been slowing its main more eastward movement progressively more daily since back on the 25th of Aug., ...
 
.. At this point the more amplified ridging over the greater West has begun to broaden, with its being flattened out a bit by some amount of colder air's having begun to track somewhat more quickly east. 
 
With cold's further regress northover the next several daysit should only work to moderate things for a few days where looking at the current general ridging pattern. Set to hold on, most likely, through until near the middle of the month.
 
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=30748
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=30791

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http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day_image/GOES-10-1500.jpg -  @

 

More basically looked at the result of colder air's having been in general recession mode since the 3rd, this while at the same time having been slowing its main more eastward movement progressively, more daily since back on the 25th of Aug., ...

 

.. At this point the more amplified ridging over the greater West has begun to broaden with its being flattened out some by some amount of colder air's having begun to track somewhat more quickly east. 

 

With cold's further regress northover the next several daysit should only work to moderate things where looking at the current general ridging pattern. Set to hold on, most likely, through until near the middle of the month.

 

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=30748

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=30791

 

Do you think the Western ridge will begin to break down after mid-month, Richard?

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Yes. Essentially with new and fresh cold from the north beginning to move daily more south on the 16th or so. 

 

This with a general consolidation of cold north between now and then.

 

.. More exactly where colder air will drop looked at more longitudinally, I can't say. But its beginning to do so at that point should change things up looked at more generally certainly most probably.

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Yes. Essentially with new and fresh cold from the north beginning to move daily more south on the 16th or so. 

 

This with a general consolidation of cold north between now and then.

 

.. More exactly where colder air will drop looked at more longitudinally, I can't say. But its beginning to do so at that point should change things up looked at more generally certainly most probably.

 

 

Thank you!

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140909 15z goes10-West IR -  @

With cold's abrupt slowing over the past 24 hours where considering its main more longitudinal pace and progress east, this looked at together with its more significant early build up north, mainly east, …

More than having worked to have flanked the main ridging still in place out over the Eastern Pacific both west and eastand so with this, moderated the ridging's potential more generallymain cold north and east of the ridge has been able to drop more directly and immediately south, to some extent.

.. Somewhat difficult to gage just what will dominate main pattern development at this point more short term.

The main elements I'd say, being: .. colder air's continuing general recession daily more northward, set withand certainly somewhat opposed to colder air's general recessionat the same time main and more primary cold's general build up and consolidation north more seasonal; .. these ideas looked at together with colder air's otherwise more longitudinal, daily more slowed pace east at this point, set to continue through the 15th or so and lending to a generally more meridional set up.

.. As a matter of general course I don't check any of the main models' broader output where looking ahead. And so, haven't here where considering these ideas above.

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/605-mid-summer-2014-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=32081

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=32168

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140912 21z goes10-West IR -  @
 
The general ridging pattern continues, with colder air's continued slowing where considering its main movement more longitudinally east, lending to a more meridional pattern generally, and with this idea some amount of earlier built up cold north having dropped south to have flanked the main ridge still in place, both east and west. 
 
My own expectation, is that new and fresh cold will begin to move steadily and progressively more southward, more broadly, on the 16th.
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=30748
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=30791

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(.. connected to and intended to augment the post just above.)
 
.. Two different main larger pattern-focused retrospectives. Each running through to 2100z today, and both as viewed through and where considering the broader GOES 10-West scope, main IR parameter, 3-hourly.  
 
One shorter and beginning on the 8th, more just 5 or so days a go. And one longer and beginning back on the 1st, working to show colder air's gradual recession more northward daily having begun back on the 3rd of Septembertransition from and following its general expansion (movement and spread.) more southward more through to that point.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/14090800z-14091221z_goes-e_ir-t.jpg
14090800z 14091221z goes-w ir   @ @ 

http://www.proxigee.com/14090100z-14091221z_goes-e_ir-t.jpg
14090100z 14091221z goes-w ir

 

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A main pattern shift appears to have begun. 
 
This below is from my most recent main colder air mass related projection, more pattern focused.  


.. This general combination of colder air's movement looked at together with distribution should lend more initially, to an increasingly more zonal patterning through the 24th, before broader patterning then shifts gradually to one increasingly more meridional. …


http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/631-fall-2014-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/&do=findComment&comment=33058  (.. the fuller projection.)

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http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/640-october-2014-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=34121
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/640-october-2014-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=34111
 
My impressions more basic, future pattern related and focused, in line with what I've projected posted where looking at main and broader cold air mass both movement and distribution from the 1st through the 12th of this month. 
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/631-fall-2014-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=33680
 
-With main colder air being in general recession mode through the 12th, the main positive connected to this recess is a better consolidation of cold north also through to that point. 
 
-With broader main cold set to step-up its pace more eastward from the 6th through the 8th - while receding daily more northward, this more stepped-up movement of cold east should be through an increasingly more north focused tier and corridor. 
 
Broader pattern, continued more meridional through the 5th. Shifting briefly to more zonal from the 6th through the 8th, before back to increasingly more meridional again from the 9th forward, and most likely through the 14th or 15th of Oct.. 
 
.. Not included within my most recent projection, new and fresh cold should begin to move and spread daily more south beginning on the 13th. This with this cold's otherwise beginning to move more assertively east on or slightly before the 15th. .Both of these ideas looked at together lending to an increasingly more zonal movement of cold, shifting by degrees daily, gradually more southward.

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As I see the approaching pattern at this point, ... With main colder air mass having since the 8th been both retracting daily steadily more northward, while at the same time slowing daily where looking at its main more eastward movement, …

 

Over the next week or so, with cold air's more at this point being near to its full regress north with new and fresh cold more primary about to begin to move and spread daily, progressively more south where looked at more latitudinally, this while at the same time set to begin to move more assertively east, ….

 

.. main patterning should transition from more meridional to, if initially somewhat gradually, increasingly more zonal; .. this with the Jet where looked at more broadly being caused to shift daily more southward.

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At this point main colder air mass is moving at a relatively more stepped up pace east, while at the at the same time daily progressively more south. And so, with this movement, main system activity should move more or less accordingly. -@ .@ @-@

Main Area Forecast Discussions, Seattle south:

Seattle
Portland
Medford
Sacramento

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A broader WV retrospective. 

 

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1626&MediaTypeID=3&ResourceID=104889

 

"... On October 4, Typhoon Phanfone skirted the coast of Japan.-A week later, that same weather system brought heavy rains to Western Canada and the U.S.."

 

Thanks for sharing. The animation really helped highlight the energy coming into the west coast.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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.. Where looking at colder air's contribution to things more systemic and main pattern wise at this point, cold should, where considering its main movement looked at more altogether, continue to spread south through the 27th, slow its main pace and progress more eastward daily through Nov. 3rd or 4th, these ideas if and with cold's more general force of movement looked at more over-all, being fairly strong (and so showing up where looked at more generally.), for the next week or so.

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Having been in regress, or general recession mode more northward since the 28th where looked at more latitudinally, this while otherwise at the same time slowing daily where looking at its main more longitudinal pace and progress more eastward, .. colder air's current slowing movement east should continue to allow it a more general access south for the shorter term, working to support the main more systemic activity both over and moving into the greater Far Wes currently.
 
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

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At this point new and fresh colder air mass having begun to move more South on the 10thto the West more specificallyand if of lesser density set against that more to the Easthas begun to move more strongly East both through and against the sketchier ridging, both having been and to some extent to a lesser degree still, in place out over the nearer East Pacific. .@
 
14110900z-14111209z satsfc.gif
 
This both expansion (movement and spread.) of cold more south together along with also stronger movement of cold more eastward, should continue for the next several dayslending to a generally, increasingly more zonal pattern focused increasingly more southward. 

http://theweatherfor...e-28#entry40179
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907

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(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=41462

More general potential wise otherwise, certainly involving the idea of pattern, .. With what I'm seeing set to take place main colder air mass movement along with distribution focused more generally, .. in my view, there's certainly some potential for some "atmospheric river" type development and set up showing up maybe five to seven days out. …

Basically the idea that main cold is (as I see things.) set both to continue to step up its main movement and pace more east over the next few to several days (thru the 21st.), looked at together along with otherwise that that colder air more primary from the north is currently moving and spreading daily more south and should be through the 23rd, should lend to a more zonal flow of the atmosphere east.

Plenty of cold from the north, at the same time both spreading steadily more south while also moving steadily more solidly east, may work to prevent warmer tropically generated moisture, access more directly northis what I'm looking at.

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.. In line with a comment that I'd posted the other day, post the most recent storm activity, about a "general lull" along with also general "resetting of colder and warmer air masses", ....
 
http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=41719
 
.. At this point, as I see things, colder air's more over-all force of movement is at its most low. And with this, about to grow increasingly more strong, working to enhance both, colder's air's (also as I see things.) currently and if only generally more stepped up movement and pace east, this along with also if to a lesser degree (the former working to supersede the later here.) more primary cold air's from the north, current general expansion (movement and spread daily more) south.

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

 

With this set of ideas, the more immediately developing, simple ridging (more sketchy, and fairly shallow.) centered just to the west, should be cut through, with the whole of colder air looked at more broadlymain Western scope west to eastdropping steadily more south for the next four or five days.

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 .. So. Relative to what I've said both the other day here just above, together with what I've projected more recently, submitted to my main thread initiation dedicated to the idea more basic @, .. main colder air having spread steadily more south daily where looked at more broadly since the 10th, should at this point, begin to move more solidly east, at a progressively more stepped up pace, through the 21st or 22nd. ... Or otherwise looked at, shift to an increasingly more zonal flow pattern, more across the board from west to east, with these ideas.

 

More basically, per my thinking, .. things cold, have been moving more directly south more to this point, with the more meridional patterning more in line with its slower movement east from the 10th through the 13th, this looked at along with its decreasing force of movement through the 14th, if having more initially begun to move a bit more eastward. A main transition of each of these ideas to their more basic opposites, is in effort and taking place, more now at this point. 

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(.. connected generally to the post just above.)


 


.. Irrespective of the stronger cold's having spread south more directly, more eastward recently, .. cold both air and ground more resultant, whether lingering or still being maintained more, shouldn't worked to lend to a blocking of the more general flow of the atmosphere east, anywhere near to what we here in the West experienced last year. This as main colder air both more east and west at this point, is currently moving through a daily, steadily more stepped up pace east. 


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.. With some amount of leaning at this point pattern-wise, toward the "Atmospheric River" setup that I'd suggested as a possibility for this general period back on the 14th @, .. with main colder air being set to begin to slow its main movement and progress eastward daily more on the 22nd, the current pattern setup will most likely transition to one where warmer and more moisture-laden sub-tropical air will be allowed progressively better access northin front, or east of the slowing cold currently still to the West out over the Pacificfrom the 22nd forward for three or four days at least.
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907 ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

http://theweatherfor...mid-fall-2014-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections

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At this point, with its having begun to move slightly more strongly eastward, and with its being set to continue to move at least somewhat more assertively east, steadily more daily over the next 4 or 5 days, main colder air mass through the higher mid-latitudes more primary, has left a more secondary cold air fed cut-off low system south, with the fuller extent of this colder air currently working to offset main both tropical and subtropical moisture and to steer it more NW. 
 
With this more secondary cold being set to move, if only somewhat more steadfastly eastalong together with other cold having moved more south both east and west .. if less cut off from that moving more assertively east more northwardthis low system should also be caused to move more eastward, lending to the chance that much of the more Central and Southern portions of the Greater Far West will continue to see some decent precipitation accumulation. 
 
Cliff Mass's most recent digest, generally related. - http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/12/northwe...ia.html
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907 ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)
 
http://theweatherfor...mid-fall-2014-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections   @

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