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2014 fall forecast


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#1
tim the weatherman

Posted 06 August 2014 - 06:05 PM

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i have started this topic since fall is approaching.



#2
tim the weatherman

Posted 06 August 2014 - 06:06 PM

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08808W4158N.pngthis is the fall forecast by the brazilian metograms for chicago and it is saying by late next month is when themps is going to crash.



#3
iFred

Posted 09 August 2014 - 09:22 PM

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There are hints by some astrologers that we might have a trough dominated early fall in the Pacific Northwest.



#4
snow_wizard

Posted 09 August 2014 - 09:33 PM

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There are hints by some astrologers that we might have a trough dominated early fall in the Pacific Northwest.

 

Are you being serious here?  At any rate it looks like our much overdue pattern change is getting close now.  I am about sick and tired of above normal temps for a good long while.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#5
Phil

Posted 09 August 2014 - 10:06 PM

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I think the west will see troughing at least through early September. How long it lasts I think is still up in the air.

I could see a warm, ridgy October though.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#6
richard mann

Posted 09 August 2014 - 11:40 PM

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.. Early and Wet. 
 
Hopefully.
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#7
Jesse

Posted 11 August 2014 - 03:57 PM

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I think the west will see troughing at least through early September. How long it lasts I think is still up in the air.

I could see a warm, ridgy October though.

 

Just like June?



#8
Phil

Posted 11 August 2014 - 06:11 PM

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Just like June?


I was 10 days off..it happens
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#9
richard mann

Posted 11 August 2014 - 11:38 PM

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.. Early and Wet.


What we've seen over the past few days is looking good for the idea more general, I'd say.

Plenty of cold presence even at this point. Dropping south, in the right placesWest certainly leastwise. With an early build up of cold north, with the main and truer approach to Fall and with its beginning, being definitely within the realm of possibilities. 


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#10
Jesse

Posted 12 August 2014 - 07:54 AM

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What we've seen over the past few days is looking good for the idea more general, I'd say.

Plenty of cold presence even at this point. Dropping south, in the right placesWest certainly leastwise. With an early build up of cold north, with the main and truer approach to Fall and with its beginning, being definitely within the realm of possibilities. 

 

Are you feeling a troughy Fall for the West, Richard?



#11
richard mann

Posted 12 August 2014 - 02:37 PM

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-

 

... With looking mainly at where we are here more in the West. 

 

As I view the idea, with the general abundance of cold north more broad-scope, looked at together with the way that / ways in which, colder air's been both moving, along with being distributed more generally, .. apart from a few basic, and even if more significantly amplified, also, fairly short-lived, stronger ridge-pattern setups, things broader pattern wise out over the Pacific and moving our way, have been fairly "troughy" for the first half of this summer. 

 

20140626_12z_850-500hPa_t+000vt-loop.gif

 

This certainly, if you also count the shallower troughs generated, moving more quickly east.

 

So the potential is certainly there. 


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#12
Black Hole

Posted 17 August 2014 - 02:44 PM

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I think the west and especially mountain west regions will be troughy, cooler than average, and above average precip for the fall months. So with that...maybe some enhanced severe weather in the upper Midwest.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#13
richard mann

Posted 06 September 2014 - 12:19 PM

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As per the same young gentlemen having generated the following run-down more focused on this coming winter posted over in "Preliminary Discussion for [the] Upcoming 2014-15 Winter Season".

Winter outlook #3
 
His official Autumn 2014 outlook.
 
Official 2014 Autumn Outlook


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#14
richard mann

Posted 13 September 2014 - 03:13 PM

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.. cross-reference.)

http://theweatherfor...ons/#entry33058


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