Jump to content

Welcome!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Farmer's Almanac 2014-15 ....

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#1
richard mann

Posted 16 August 2014 - 01:57 AM

richard mann

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3471 posts
  • LocationParadise, CA

-
.. From an entry posted, by cousin "Phil", to the main thread for this month set aside [mainly.] for general discussion focusing on weather and climate as they relate to the Pacific North West.
 


Farmers almanac [is] predicting another brutal winter over most the US. Overall[. T]heir winter predictions have been great lately (with some regional discrepancies). I believe they've nailed their last 6 forecasts for the US as a whole[.]

 
.. To which the general exchange copied and tacked in here following below was attached. ....
 

They are  [?]
 
LOL.
 
Regional discrepancies when wrong equals failure.
 
I don't care if overall it is considered successful, I do not live in the whole USA, I live in the PNW, which overall they have failed with the last two winters.

 

When I make a forecast, I do my best to get the location of my anomalies correctly..as do all forecasters. Sadly, sometimes we're a few hundred miles off..and that NPAC ridge that was originally your friend becomes your enemy, if you live in the PNW.
 
I give credit where credit is due...the OFA has done very well on the large scale, during the winter months. They accurately predicted the -NAO dominated 2010-11 winter, the torch-dominated 2011-12 winter, the "two-faced" 2012-13 winter, and the "icebox" 2013-14 winter.


 

And I don't look at it the same way.  Sorry.

 

That's fine.
 
My take is, given the fact that this field is still in its infant stages, your expectations are unreasonable. Forecasting 6+ months out is extremely difficult
[.]

 
And to which I added, myself, .... 
 

.. Presuming the "this field" element of your first main sentence here above, is related to the "Forecasting 6+ month out" one of your second sentence more main here, ...
 
How does the whole "in its infant stages" idea tied in, where considering what you've suggested, exactly. ? 
 
That is, per your appreciation, how is the idea—(i.e. the .. "field" of, whatever "[more extended extended timeframe] forecasting".?)—being looked at now at this point, set beside how you invision it might be perhaps otherwise, more deeply in the future. ? / ... What's being looked at now, set beside what might be, either whether better, or otherwise, latter. ? .. This whether by the people at "Farmer's Almanac", or elsewhere. ?

 
... Not addressed to "Phil" here more specifically, if in fact not meant to exclude him either certainly, ...
 
The main focus and intent of this thread. ....
 
$ .. If you're in fact familiar with them, .. What are your thoughts, regarding the general viabilityeven perhaps where considered otherwise, accuracyof these more extended types of forecasts generated "regionally", published annually by the "Farmer's Almanac". ?
 
And with this question and idea, whether you are or not, .... 
 
$$ ... What do you think of "these", following - accessible, where looking ahead at "2015". ? 
 
..... http://www.almanac.c...ather/longrange ...

 

Summaries only:  from Nov. of this year thru to Oct. of next. By region.

 

Here's the basic methodology. .... http://www.almanac.c...predict-weather


---twitter_logo-t12.png

#2
richard mann

Posted 18 August 2014 - 12:47 AM

richard mann

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3471 posts
  • LocationParadise, CA

-
My thoughts, exactly. 
 
But seriously. … With my being a gardener, along with also having been a student of horticulture since the early 80s, I've in fact purchased a copy of "The Almanac" annually for quite a number of years. And with this idea, certainly also been exposed to these more generalized projections both more regional and national.
 
And with this, and where regarding their accuracy, or reliability looked at otherwise, my own view is that no. 1, .. certainly more regionally(.. and with my perhaps noting here that during much of the time since the early 80's and before my having moved to where I am more at this point - within the Sierra foothills just east of Chico, CA, my main location having been just north of San Francisco.)where looked at from one year to the next, they've been generally hit and miss; .. and so ultimately, merely and only, more "fun" to check than anything else. 
 
.. And no. 2, that with this organization's beingon principle, more creativelyunwilling to relinquish (outline.) their main methodology used toward generating these projections, it's (of course.) difficult to appreciate them as amounting to much, or being good for much more than this. Or stated more specifically, with this idea, their being ultimately, of very little use more practical.


---twitter_logo-t12.png