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Long Range Discussion for Autumn and Winter

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#51
tim the weatherman

Posted 16 September 2014 - 01:57 PM

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Speaking of Thanksgiving snow chances...day in, day out, this model is indicating a stormy and wintry looking November.  This would be a rare event IF it happened.  Take this as guidance to a pattern we MAY be experiencing down the road.

i cant believe this model arready caught on this and it is rare for snowstorms to hit on thanksgiving and if this did transfire than people needs to be prepared for a a snowstorm on thanksgiving this year.



#52
Tom

Posted 16 September 2014 - 02:14 PM

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i cant believe this model arready caught on this and it is rare for snowstorms to hit on thanksgiving and if this did transfire than people needs to be prepared for a a snowstorm on thanksgiving this year.

It's been a year filled with rare events, continuing this trend would be nice...


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#53
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 16 September 2014 - 06:09 PM

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A snow cover is usually 1" or more and the average date is Dec 1st.  It seems like it has been years since we had even a trace on the ground during Thanksgiving week.  This region usually see's its first accumulating snows in December.  Hoping this year it happens earlier for once.

I was thinking that it was usually in December that it begins to snow in earnest in your area. By the way things have been going this late summer, you just might have snow on the ground by Thanksgiving week, unless there is an abrupt change in the overall pattern going later into fall.


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#54
Tom

Posted 17 September 2014 - 07:03 AM

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Over the next 2 weeks, Siberia and parts of Alaska are really going to start building their snow cover up there.  It seems like its a pretty early start since normally we look at the snow cover building in October.

 

Euro ensembles over the past few days have been cooling Canada quite dramatically as we roll into early October.  Parts of Canada also should start seeing colder systems and laying down some snow.  Should it stick around, we shall see.


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#55
Tom

Posted 17 September 2014 - 07:19 AM

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Could there be not 1, but 2 major Typhoon's that hit Japan over the next 2 weeks???  Both Euro and GFS models are seeing the 1st one hit Japan around the 21st/22nd.  I'm expecting a monster trough to hit the U.S. sometime around the 30th of this month extending into October's open.  If the 2nd Typhoon hits, yet another trough can be expected a week later.  This would be a wild open to October and certainly cool off Canada enough to start laying down a snow cover early on this season.


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#56
The Snowman

Posted 17 September 2014 - 01:57 PM

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Figured it would be worth posting this here, since the discussion has revolved around the LRC lately.

 

New LRC Winter Pattern Projected To Be Snowy: http://theweathercen...cted-to-be.html


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Publisher at The Weather Centre blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

 

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#57
Tom

Posted 17 September 2014 - 01:59 PM

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CFSv2 trying to paint some snow in the Plains/Midwest for mid Oct, especially right around Halloween???  Nonetheless, the model is seeing a cold and stormy month.  The new LRC cycle should be exciting to watch it unfold.



#58
Niko

Posted 17 September 2014 - 04:05 PM

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A real cold snap on tap for me tomorrow night as temps hit the mid 30's for overnight lows. I will probably be in a frost advisory by tomorrow. Incredible for mid September standards. 70's for the weekend??? Wow, what a swing of temps and early next week, my temps take a tumble once again. Its like a roller coaster ride.

 

October does look wild in terms of storminess and cold temps. I would not be surprise to see some snow with possible accumulations on grassy surfaces and car tops. I always thought having snow on Halloween was pretty fascinating, although, does not happen to frequently. I am starting to wonder whether my snowfall tally's will be as major as they were last winter when 95.5" recorded in IMBY. I'm hearing that it will be a frigid winter, but not very snowy, like last year. We shall see.

 

Edit: Anyone saw the video from San Diego where a lightning strike hit a palm tree and caused it to go on fire. It was an extraordinary video indeed, kinda odd too because you do not see something like that happen that often.  


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#59
james1976

Posted 17 September 2014 - 06:05 PM

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Im loving how October is looking. Andrew's post makes sense.



#60
Tom

Posted 17 September 2014 - 06:10 PM

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Im loving how October is looking. Andrew's post makes sense.

Yup, JAMSTEC model comes out in a few days and I'll post what that shows when it comes out around the 20th I believe.  The August run from that model was wet as well.



#61
Tom

Posted 17 September 2014 - 07:58 PM

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Earlier today, Skilling commented on how there have been different species of fish up in the NE Pacific and actually some sharks have been found up near the shores of Alaska!  Water temps have averaged 5-7F above normal in the NE Pacific.  Some real warm waters are still gathering in the Bearing Sea.  This should have a BIG impact for the Polar bears up there and various arctic animals this winter season.


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#62
Geos

Posted 17 September 2014 - 08:19 PM

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CFSv2 trying to paint some snow in the Plains/Midwest for mid Oct, especially right around Halloween???  Nonetheless, the model is seeing a cold and stormy month.  The new LRC cycle should be exciting to watch it unfold.

 

The maps on the left side are really out of this world! In terms of how much snowfall would occur during that time of Autumn. On rare occasions it has snowed in this area in October (not just a trace).


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#63
Tom

Posted 17 September 2014 - 08:37 PM

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The maps on the left side are really out of this world! In terms of how much snowfall would occur during that time of Autumn. On rare occasions it has snowed in this area in October (not just a trace).

I think what the model is trying to say is more or less it will be cold, maybe mixed precip.  Snowfall in mid/late October is rare to accumulate that much....November, yes.  Nonetheless, these are definite cold signals.  Snow flakes are not out of the question though!



#64
Geos

Posted 18 September 2014 - 03:56 AM

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I think what the model is trying to say is more or less it will be cold, maybe mixed precip.  Snowfall in mid/late October is rare to accumulate that much....November, yes.  Nonetheless, these are definite cold signals.  Snow flakes are not out of the question though!

 

If the ground is colder than normal anything is possible. The sun angle in October is equivalent to Late February/early March.

 

I think will have several days in October of snow showers at least.


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#65
gabel23

Posted 18 September 2014 - 08:56 AM

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Gary Lezak posted this on his blog this morning. This potentially is the beginning of the new LRC. We would all absolutely love to have a flow like this! Southwest flow would be awesome to have as the dominate feature in the new LRC, bring on the Colorado lows and Cutters!!

Attached Files


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#66
Tom

Posted 18 September 2014 - 09:14 AM

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Gary Lezak posted this on his blog this morning. This potentially is the beginning of the new LRC. We would all absolutely love to have a flow like this! Southwest flow would be awesome to have as the dominate feature in the new LRC, bring on the Colorado lows and Cutters!!

Saw that post by him earlier today.  I think the models are going to have big swings back and forth trying to figure out the changes in the atmosphere that are happening as we speak.  The jet stream is strengthening and models have a tough time picking out these transformations.  I'm noticing these flip flops on both the Euro and GFS the past couple days.  The new LRC may very well be showing up as we head into the first week of October.

 

The new JMA run is showing some troughiness Week 2 in the Plains/Upper Midwest/Midwest/GL.  This may suggest the new storm track that will be setting up next month.  Bodes well for both of our regions Gabel!


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#67
gabel23

Posted 18 September 2014 - 09:27 AM

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I hope so, I have been going back in the climate page for Lincoln and looking at the past snow totals by season. Any idea what analog years people are looking at Tom?? I hear a lot about the 76-77 season as a possible analog year. I have noticed also, for the years we get snow in Nebraska in October typically means a tame December but crazy Jan. and Feb. I would rather have a fast start to winter like in November!!



#68
Tom

Posted 18 September 2014 - 09:39 AM

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I hope so, I have been going back in the climate page for Lincoln and looking at the past snow totals by season. Any idea what analog years people are looking at Tom?? I hear a lot about the 76-77 season as a possible analog year. I have noticed also, for the years we get snow in Nebraska in October typically means a tame December but crazy Jan. and Feb. I would rather have a fast start to winter like in November!!

Analogs being used are '76-'77, '02-'03, '09-'10...



#69
Tom

Posted 18 September 2014 - 10:19 AM

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Pretty impressive snow cover building in Siberia towards the end of the month....


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#70
Geos

Posted 18 September 2014 - 11:24 AM

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That little bit of cooler water that was west of Juneau, AK last week has disappeared. Warmer than normal waters virtually for the entire northeast quarter of the Pacific Ocean currently.

 

anomnight.9.18.2014.gif

 

 

sst_anom.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#71
Niko

Posted 18 September 2014 - 03:11 PM

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My weatherman this evening ironically gave out the Winter Outlook for D,J,F  and if you are a snowlover and lives anywhere in Michigan and in the upper midwest and the plains and likes the cold, well, you will not like what I have to write. He said that we will have well below average precipitation and above normal temps. I dont think I buy what he said about this outlook. He also said that last year, that's the same outlook that they forecasted and instead, all hell broke out with record snows and cold. 


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#72
Niko

Posted 18 September 2014 - 03:19 PM

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This from Farmers Almanac:

 

More Shivery And Shovelry! Read Our 2015 Winter Forecast.

by Caleb Weatherbee | Sunday, August 24th, 2014 | From: Weather

2015-USFA-Winter-Map-Small-420x240.jpg

This forecast is for the U.S. For the Canadian forecast, click here.

After the frigid, bitterly cold, and snow-filled winter last year, many of you are wondering just what this winter might bring. Could it possibly be as bad as last?

According to the 2015 edition of the Farmers’ Almanac, the winter of 2014–15 will see below-normal temperatures for about three-quarters of the nation. A large zone of very cold temperatures will be found from east of the Continental Divide east to the Appalachians. The most frigid temperatures will be found from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. The coldest outbreak of the season will come during the final week of January into the beginning of February, when frigid arctic air drops temperatures across the Northern Plains to perhaps 40 below zero. As the frigid air blows across the Great Lakes, snow showers and squalls will drop heavy amounts of snow to the lee of the Lakes.

No region will see prolonged spells of above-normal temperatures; only near the West and East Coasts will temperatures average close to normal.

Over the eastern third of the country, we are expecting an active storm track with a number of storms delivering copious amounts of snow and rain. Near-normal precipitation is expected for the Pacific Northwest, the Southwest States, and Northern Plains, while below-normal precipitation values are forecast for the Southwest States as well as the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. The Central and Southern Plains are expected to receive above-average precipitation.

We are “red flagging” the first 10 days of January and the first week of February along the Atlantic Seaboard for active wintry weather featuring bouts of heavy precipitation and strong winds. Another red flag timeframe for widespread wintry conditions is the middle part of March from the nation’s midsection to the East Coast.

Potential El Niño is an Uncertain Element
As we were putting the finishing touches on this year’s long-range projections, the National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration issued an official El Niño watch. An El Niño is a warming of the central Pacific once every few years, from a combination of wind and waves in the tropics. It shakes up climate around the world, changing rain and temperature patterns. An El Niño could result in more rain this winter for drought-stricken California and Southern States, and a milder winter for the nation’s frigid northern tier. El Niños are usually strongest from December to April, but there’s no guarantee that we will see one this winter. We’ll just have to wait and see, but in the mean time, all of us at the Farmers’ Almanac suggest you stock up on firewood, sweaters, and hot cocoa. It certainly looks like another long winter of shivery and shovelry is on tap.



#73
james1976

Posted 18 September 2014 - 04:02 PM

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My weatherman this evening ironically gave out the Winter Outlook for D,J,F  and if you are a snowlover and lives anywhere in Michigan and in the upper midwest and the plains and likes the cold, well, you will not like what I have to write. He said that we will have well below average precipitation and above normal temps. I dont think I buy what he said about this outlook. He also said that last year, that's the same outlook that they forecasted and instead, all hell broke out with record snows and cold. 

I dont understand why any weather man in the midwest would predict that. Are there any signals for this? Is el nino supposed to be that strong?



#74
tim the weatherman

Posted 18 September 2014 - 04:46 PM

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I dont understand why any weather man in the midwest would predict that. Are there any signals for this? Is el nino supposed to be that strong?

no the strong el nino they faoecasted is a distant memory that that meterologist is wrong by saying that if you could look at the state of the enso region that there is no el nino present and with all of tha warmth over the gulf of alaska and greenland so that means where nikos_163 is at he will be in line for bitterly cold and snowy winter ahead.


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#75
tim the weatherman

Posted 18 September 2014 - 05:01 PM

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Saw that post by him earlier today.  I think the models are going to have big swings back and forth trying to figure out the changes in the atmosphere that are happening as we speak.  The jet stream is strengthening and models have a tough time picking out these transformations.  I'm noticing these flip flops on both the Euro and GFS the past couple days.  The new LRC may very well be showing up as we head into the first week of October.

 

The new JMA run is showing some troughiness Week 2 in the Plains/Upper Midwest/Midwest/GL.  This may suggest the new storm track that will be setting up next month.  Bodes well for both of our regions Gabel!

i was looking at that too and he said the new lrc is going to begin.



#76
james1976

Posted 18 September 2014 - 05:06 PM

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Ain't diggin it....
10636115_838312029532552_892455516944152



#77
Niko

Posted 18 September 2014 - 05:56 PM

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I dont understand why any weather man in the midwest would predict that. Are there any signals for this? Is el nino supposed to be that strong?

I was surprised. He gave no explanation. I did not buy that outlook at all. I believe that we are in stored for one heck of a winter.


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#78
Niko

Posted 18 September 2014 - 05:57 PM

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Ain't diggin it....
10636115_838312029532552_892455516944152

Me neither.



#79
Tom

Posted 18 September 2014 - 06:30 PM

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Ain't diggin it....
10636115_838312029532552_892455516944152

I wouldn't trust ANY NOAA forecasts this far out, especially for a possible El Nino event.  That's more or less what a Super Nino would do to the U.S.


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#80
gabel23

Posted 18 September 2014 - 08:11 PM

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Analogs being used are '76-'77, '02-'03, '09-'10...




I agree, I trust lezak more than noaa. No offense to them but I just really believe in the LRC. Also it always seems like noaa is constantly updating there long range forecasts. Those three analogs produced snow in nebraska! I would prefer 2009-10 winter, I believe that was a weak El Niño with a negative nao/ao all winter long. Ended with 30" of snow in December and 50" total for the season. That winter is known for its monster x-mas blizzard that struck the central plains. On Christmas Day I was in zero visibility all day and night and had a snow depth of 2'!!!
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#81
Madtown

Posted 19 September 2014 - 06:45 AM

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Well with those analogs it ain't looking good here. 26" 28" and 50" less than stellar in the snow department



#82
Niko

Posted 19 September 2014 - 07:44 AM

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Earlier today, TWC has also predicted a mild winter as well. Not sure what they are seeing, perhaps, they are assuming that El Nino will be playing a role this winter.


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#83
Tom

Posted 19 September 2014 - 07:52 AM

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Earlier today, TWC has also predicted a mild winter as well. Not sure what they are seeing, perhaps, they are assuming that El Nino will be playing a role this winter.

I feel that NOAA/TWC, they all have an agenda, especially when there is a potential El Nino in the cards.  It's disheartening to see this since these forecasts are supposed to give the public a general idea of what to expect down the road.  I mean, there are probably some real smart mets in these places but there is most likely someone in the "higher ups" that makes the decisions.


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#84
Tom

Posted 19 September 2014 - 08:04 AM

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I think the new JAMSTEC run comes out tomorrow.  Should be interesting to see if it stays course with a cooler Fall and cold Winter.


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#85
Geos

Posted 19 September 2014 - 08:15 AM

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I wouldn't trust ANY NOAA forecasts this far out, especially for a possible El Nino event. That's more or less what a Super Nino would do to the U.S.


That is exactly what a strong el Nino outlook would look like! Not buying any mild outlooks that's for sure.

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#86
Tom

Posted 19 September 2014 - 09:49 AM

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Incredible southern hemisphere sea ice coverage still breaking records, actually, blowing past previous records....



#87
Geos

Posted 19 September 2014 - 11:14 AM

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Incredible southern hemisphere sea ice coverage still breaking records, actually, blowing past previous records....

 

Was just about to post that chart! Incredible.

 

Another thing - I've been reading that the Arctic temperatures are starting to flip really cold right now. Arctic sea ice extent should be rocketing upwards very soon.

With these water temperatures, ice formation should come easy the rest of the month.

 

satsst.arc.d-00.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#88
Tom

Posted 19 September 2014 - 01:01 PM

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This would be crazy to see it happen in back to back years, but the 12z Euro Control is hinting at a very potent early season arctic attack to start off October!  Very similar to last years early October storm that hit the Dakotas. It would indeed be originating from the arctic as you can see the massive ridging near Alaska and the Archipelago region of Canada.  This may be the response to the Typhoon and another system in the north Pacific that seem to merge into one system.  That system then enters the waters of the Bearing Sea and pumps a massive ridge to the east that may dislodge some of that early season cold building up north.  Something to watch for sure. 

 

What grasps my attention even more are the 12z Euro ensembles developing a massive North Pacific ridge in the Day 10-15 range.  Let's see how this unfolds.



#89
Geos

Posted 19 September 2014 - 01:38 PM

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This would be crazy to see it happen in back to back years, but the 12z Euro Control is hinting at a very potent early season arctic attack to start off October!  Very similar to last years early October storm that hit the Dakotas. It would indeed be originating from the arctic as you can see the massive ridging near Alaska and the Archipelago region of Canada.  This may be the response to the Typhoon and another system in the north Pacific that seem to merge into one system.  That system then enters the waters of the Bearing Sea and pumps a massive ridge to the east that may dislodge some of that early season cold building up north.  Something to watch for sure. 

 

What grasps my attention even more are the 12z Euro ensembles developing a massive North Pacific ridge in the Day 10-15 range.  Let's see how this unfolds.

 

Wow, that's like -35° normal in KS! The Canadian Long Range is showing this.

 

2014091912_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NA


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#90
Tom

Posted 19 September 2014 - 01:50 PM

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You rarely see such significant departures from normal this far out. I'm interested in what the 18z GFS shows and if there are any similarities. Last nights Euro weeklies came out and they to show shots of cold for the 1st 2 weeks of October.
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#91
Niko

Posted 19 September 2014 - 01:51 PM

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Wow, that's like -35° normal in KS! The Canadian Long Range is showing this.

 

2014091912_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NA

Holy Smokes....is that a heatwave?? That looks like warm air dominating the nation, or at least, most of the country.



#92
The Snowman

Posted 20 September 2014 - 12:51 PM

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Ain't diggin it....
10636115_838312029532552_892455516944152

Quite a bit would have to change between now and December for that to happen, IMO.


Publisher at The Weather Centre blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

 

You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

 

The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!   

#93
Geos

Posted 20 September 2014 - 03:33 PM

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Holy Smokes....is that a heatwave?? That looks like warm air dominating the nation, or at least, most of the country.

 

Around here at least 70s are now considered above normal, so it really doesn't say how much above normal it could be. 

 

Starting to tame down now.

 

2014092012_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NA


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#94
Tom

Posted 20 September 2014 - 03:45 PM

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We may in fact be heading for a long tranquil period ahead.  Maybe even through the first couple weeks of October (which I don't mind at all).  Seems like the models are really relaxing the jet stream way up into Canada as the transition to the new pattern sets in.  The last few runs of the CFSv2 indicate a warm pattern through about mid October, then the bottom falls out.  I'd like to see the new Euro weeklies in the next day or two.


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#95
Geos

Posted 20 September 2014 - 05:19 PM

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We may in fact be heading for a long tranquil period ahead.  Maybe even through the first couple weeks of October (which I don't mind at all).  Seems like the models are really relaxing the jet stream way up into Canada as the transition to the new pattern sets in.  The last few runs of the CFSv2 indicate a warm pattern through about mid October, then the bottom falls out.  I'd like to see the new Euro weeklies in the next day or two.

 

If I gauge it about right the first 10 days or so will be pretty mild then it's somewhere in the 10-15th range is when the average temps stay below normal.

 

If we don't get a frost in early October, then I don't think will see Indian Summer this time around. I just don't predict that will see very many mild spells past mid-October this year.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#96
Tom

Posted 21 September 2014 - 06:08 PM

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CFS keeps on building a huge pool of cold air in Canada as we head into late October and early November.  This model has been showing signs of a lot of systems from the Plains to the Lakes in October with many cold fronts.  It might be a chilly Halloween this year!


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#97
Tom

Posted 22 September 2014 - 02:57 PM

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Looks like that 2nd Typhoon will be a rather strong one to hit near Japan around the 29th which should correlate to a major trough around Oct 7-10th.  CFS starting to see it....could be our first true freezes in the region.  Today's run on this model has been one of the coldest yet.  It' also keeps painting a cold open to November from the Plains to the Lakes.  East coast seems to stay above normal which translates to a storm track thru our region.


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#98
Tom

Posted 22 September 2014 - 03:31 PM

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This is exactly where you want the intense cold to be building in early November up in Canada.  Almost perfect alignment to how it happened last year, expect it to push farther South and East as winter takes hold. 


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#99
Geos

Posted 22 September 2014 - 05:38 PM

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Looks like that 2nd Typhoon will be a rather strong one to hit near Japan around the 29th which should correlate to a major trough around Oct 7-10th.  CFS starting to see it....could be our first true freezes in the region.  Today's run on this model has been one of the coldest yet.  It' also keeps painting a cold open to November from the Plains to the Lakes.  East coast seems to stay above normal which translates to a storm track thru our region.

 

Is that 850mb or 2 meter temperatures?


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#100
Tom

Posted 22 September 2014 - 05:41 PM

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Is that 850mb or 2 meter temperatures?

2 meter temps in Celcius...