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Long Range Discussion for Autumn and Winter


Tom

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.. Right. I checked into the idea after I'd posted this above.

 

So, does he in fact say anything within what you'd seen there, about the drought element [potential] correlation. ?

Or no. ?

No, his primary clientele is for the eastern 2/3 of the nation but he does touch on all sorts of weather related topics.  He has mentioned in the past that the northern 1/2 of Cali will be dry this Winter unfortunately for those who need it most now.

 

On another note, I took a look at the new Euro Weeklies and October looks to open on a wild side with storminess and intense cold shots.  Yes it is down the road, but one should be expecting to see an active pattern setting up as we head into October.  Folks living in the Plains/Midwest may have their first shots at seeing some wet snow flakes if this verifies.  Given the nature of the weather pattern we are experiencing, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to see some strong autumn storm systems next month, especially since we can use some of our long range forecasting techniques.  Should be an interesting month to say the least.

 

Edit: I could post several more maps but the general idea through mid October looks down right chilly!  Especially if we can get some wrapped up storm systems to tug down the cold brewing up in Canada later this month.

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It's like the weather God's are manifesting a Winter lovers Dream....couldn't have painted a better map than this!  CFSv2 illustrating a classic 500mb pattern for Nov/Dec/Jan.  Still indicating a ferocious November and a very chilly Autumn and Winter.

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It's like the weather God's are manifesting a Winter lovers Dream....couldn't have painted a better map than this!  CFSv2 illustrating a classic 500mb pattern for Nov/Dec/Jan.  Still indicating a ferocious November and a very chilly Autumn and Winter.

 

With every new run of the CFSv2 showing a cold back half or third to Autumn the more I think it's likely. Definitely a strong cold signal coming through for November definitely.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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With every new run of the CFSv2 showing a cold back half or third to Autumn the more I think it's likely. Definitely a strong cold signal coming through for November definitely.

Last year it got pretty cold for Thanksgiving week I remember.  This year with the pattern set in place and seemingly all the ingredients are coming together for an even colder start to this winter season....It would blow my mind to have a snow cover down by Thanksgiving this year!  This season we may inevitably have 5 months of winter if it doesn't break in Feb or March.  Can you imagine that?  It would be like living in Toronto or Saskatchewan. 

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Last year it got pretty cold for Thanksgiving week I remember.  This year with the pattern set in place and seemingly all the ingredients are coming together for an even colder start to this winter season....It would blow my mind to have a snow cover down by Thanksgiving this year!  This season we may inevitably have 5 months of winter if it doesn't break in Feb or March.  Can you imagine that?  It would be like living in Toronto or Saskatchewan. 

How often is there snow cover (at least a trace) on the ground in the Chicago area by Thanksgiving? I am assuming that it is fairly rare, even though I know that it does snow at times in November.

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How often is there snow cover (at least a trace) on the ground in the Chicago area by Thanksgiving? I am assuming that it is fairly rare, even though I know that it does snow at times in November.

A snow cover is usually 1" or more and the average date is Dec 1st.  It seems like it has been years since we had even a trace on the ground during Thanksgiving week.  This region usually see's its first accumulating snows in December.  Hoping this year it happens earlier for once.

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Tom, I noticed that this year it has been noticebly colder than last year this time and also tree colors are happening sooner than last year as well. I clicked on Accu-weather to check the 45 days outlook for my area just out of curiosity and October is quite cold. By mid month, my highs are low to mid 40s and lows near 30 or so. Accu-weather see's this chill coming too. I can only imagine what November has in stored for us. Probably 30s for highs and 20s for lows. Thats below normal to much below normal.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tom, I noticed that this year it has been noticebly colder than last year this time and also tree colors are happening sooner than last year as well. I clicked on Accu-weather to check the 45 days outlook for my area just out of curiosity and October is quite cold. By mid month, my highs are low to mid 40s and lows near 30 or so. Accu-weather see's this chill coming too. I can only imagine what November has in stored for us. Probably 30s for highs and 20s for lows. Thats below normal to much below normal.

I believe the reason we are experiencing colder conditions earlier this year is bc of the LRC pattern that is repeating its final cycle.  Last year it was warm and you have to remember the LRC that year had the old 2012 Autumn pattern which was much different.  As you remember, the winter of 2012-13 was a late start and was back loaded.  One of the reasons why I believe that year was back loaded is probably in part due to the fact that the atmosphere was transitioning out of the zonal and very mild pattern that made the 2011-12 Winter record setting warm. 

 

This year we are in the midst of a dominant pattern that doesn't want to budge at all.  IMO, there will be a similar pattern with consistent cold fronts BUT the kicker may be juicier/stronger systems this year during the Autumn months that will repeat all season long.  The atmosphere will be primed to develop such systems.  We may open October on a very stormy and chilly note...setting the stage for the new LRC cycle.

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Last year it got pretty cold for Thanksgiving week I remember.  This year with the pattern set in place and seemingly all the ingredients are coming together for an even colder start to this winter season....It would blow my mind to have a snow cover down by Thanksgiving this year!  This season we may inevitably have 5 months of winter if it doesn't break in Feb or March.  Can you imagine that?  It would be like living in Toronto or Saskatchewan. 

 

We've had a few snowstorms in November before, although it's been a long time. Toronto not so much, maybe more like Ottawa or Winnipeg!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Speaking of Thanksgiving snow chances...day in, day out, this model is indicating a stormy and wintry looking November.  This would be a rare event IF it happened.  Take this as guidance to a pattern we MAY be experiencing down the road.

i cant believe this model arready caught on this and it is rare for snowstorms to hit on thanksgiving and if this did transfire than people needs to be prepared for a a snowstorm on thanksgiving this year.

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i cant believe this model arready caught on this and it is rare for snowstorms to hit on thanksgiving and if this did transfire than people needs to be prepared for a a snowstorm on thanksgiving this year.

It's been a year filled with rare events, continuing this trend would be nice...

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A snow cover is usually 1" or more and the average date is Dec 1st.  It seems like it has been years since we had even a trace on the ground during Thanksgiving week.  This region usually see's its first accumulating snows in December.  Hoping this year it happens earlier for once.

I was thinking that it was usually in December that it begins to snow in earnest in your area. By the way things have been going this late summer, you just might have snow on the ground by Thanksgiving week, unless there is an abrupt change in the overall pattern going later into fall.

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Over the next 2 weeks, Siberia and parts of Alaska are really going to start building their snow cover up there.  It seems like its a pretty early start since normally we look at the snow cover building in October.

 

Euro ensembles over the past few days have been cooling Canada quite dramatically as we roll into early October.  Parts of Canada also should start seeing colder systems and laying down some snow.  Should it stick around, we shall see.

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Could there be not 1, but 2 major Typhoon's that hit Japan over the next 2 weeks???  Both Euro and GFS models are seeing the 1st one hit Japan around the 21st/22nd.  I'm expecting a monster trough to hit the U.S. sometime around the 30th of this month extending into October's open.  If the 2nd Typhoon hits, yet another trough can be expected a week later.  This would be a wild open to October and certainly cool off Canada enough to start laying down a snow cover early on this season.

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A real cold snap on tap for me tomorrow night as temps hit the mid 30's for overnight lows. I will probably be in a frost advisory by tomorrow. Incredible for mid September standards. 70's for the weekend??? Wow, what a swing of temps and early next week, my temps take a tumble once again. Its like a roller coaster ride.

 

October does look wild in terms of storminess and cold temps. I would not be surprise to see some snow with possible accumulations on grassy surfaces and car tops. I always thought having snow on Halloween was pretty fascinating, although, does not happen to frequently. I am starting to wonder whether my snowfall tally's will be as major as they were last winter when 95.5" recorded in IMBY. I'm hearing that it will be a frigid winter, but not very snowy, like last year. We shall see.

 

Edit: Anyone saw the video from San Diego where a lightning strike hit a palm tree and caused it to go on fire. It was an extraordinary video indeed, kinda odd too because you do not see something like that happen that often.  

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Earlier today, Skilling commented on how there have been different species of fish up in the NE Pacific and actually some sharks have been found up near the shores of Alaska!  Water temps have averaged 5-7F above normal in the NE Pacific.  Some real warm waters are still gathering in the Bearing Sea.  This should have a BIG impact for the Polar bears up there and various arctic animals this winter season.

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CFSv2 trying to paint some snow in the Plains/Midwest for mid Oct, especially right around Halloween???  Nonetheless, the model is seeing a cold and stormy month.  The new LRC cycle should be exciting to watch it unfold.

 

The maps on the left side are really out of this world! In terms of how much snowfall would occur during that time of Autumn. On rare occasions it has snowed in this area in October (not just a trace).

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The maps on the left side are really out of this world! In terms of how much snowfall would occur during that time of Autumn. On rare occasions it has snowed in this area in October (not just a trace).

I think what the model is trying to say is more or less it will be cold, maybe mixed precip.  Snowfall in mid/late October is rare to accumulate that much....November, yes.  Nonetheless, these are definite cold signals.  Snow flakes are not out of the question though!

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I think what the model is trying to say is more or less it will be cold, maybe mixed precip.  Snowfall in mid/late October is rare to accumulate that much....November, yes.  Nonetheless, these are definite cold signals.  Snow flakes are not out of the question though!

 

If the ground is colder than normal anything is possible. The sun angle in October is equivalent to Late February/early March.

 

I think will have several days in October of snow showers at least.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Gary Lezak posted this on his blog this morning. This potentially is the beginning of the new LRC. We would all absolutely love to have a flow like this! Southwest flow would be awesome to have as the dominate feature in the new LRC, bring on the Colorado lows and Cutters!!

Saw that post by him earlier today.  I think the models are going to have big swings back and forth trying to figure out the changes in the atmosphere that are happening as we speak.  The jet stream is strengthening and models have a tough time picking out these transformations.  I'm noticing these flip flops on both the Euro and GFS the past couple days.  The new LRC may very well be showing up as we head into the first week of October.

 

The new JMA run is showing some troughiness Week 2 in the Plains/Upper Midwest/Midwest/GL.  This may suggest the new storm track that will be setting up next month.  Bodes well for both of our regions Gabel!

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I hope so, I have been going back in the climate page for Lincoln and looking at the past snow totals by season. Any idea what analog years people are looking at Tom?? I hear a lot about the 76-77 season as a possible analog year. I have noticed also, for the years we get snow in Nebraska in October typically means a tame December but crazy Jan. and Feb. I would rather have a fast start to winter like in November!!

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I hope so, I have been going back in the climate page for Lincoln and looking at the past snow totals by season. Any idea what analog years people are looking at Tom?? I hear a lot about the 76-77 season as a possible analog year. I have noticed also, for the years we get snow in Nebraska in October typically means a tame December but crazy Jan. and Feb. I would rather have a fast start to winter like in November!!

Analogs being used are '76-'77, '02-'03, '09-'10...

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That little bit of cooler water that was west of Juneau, AK last week has disappeared. Warmer than normal waters virtually for the entire northeast quarter of the Pacific Ocean currently.

 

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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My weatherman this evening ironically gave out the Winter Outlook for D,J,F  and if you are a snowlover and lives anywhere in Michigan and in the upper midwest and the plains and likes the cold, well, you will not like what I have to write. He said that we will have well below average precipitation and above normal temps. I dont think I buy what he said about this outlook. He also said that last year, that's the same outlook that they forecasted and instead, all hell broke out with record snows and cold. 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This from Farmers Almanac:

 

More Shivery And Shovelry! Read Our 2015 Winter Forecast.

by Caleb Weatherbee | Sunday, August 24th, 2014 | From: Weather

http://cdn.farmersalmanac.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/2015-USFA-Winter-Map-Small-420x240.jpg

This forecast is for the U.S. For the Canadian forecast, click here.

After the frigid, bitterly cold, and snow-filled winter last year, many of you are wondering just what this winter might bring. Could it possibly be as bad as last?

According to the 2015 edition of the Farmers’ Almanac, the winter of 2014–15 will see below-normal temperatures for about three-quarters of the nation. A large zone of very cold temperatures will be found from east of the Continental Divide east to the Appalachians. The most frigid temperatures will be found from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. The coldest outbreak of the season will come during the final week of January into the beginning of February, when frigid arctic air drops temperatures across the Northern Plains to perhaps 40 below zero. As the frigid air blows across the Great Lakes, snow showers and squalls will drop heavy amounts of snow to the lee of the Lakes.

No region will see prolonged spells of above-normal temperatures; only near the West and East Coasts will temperatures average close to normal.

Over the eastern third of the country, we are expecting an active storm track with a number of storms delivering copious amounts of snow and rain. Near-normal precipitation is expected for the Pacific Northwest, the Southwest States, and Northern Plains, while below-normal precipitation values are forecast for the Southwest States as well as the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. The Central and Southern Plains are expected to receive above-average precipitation.

We are “red flagging” the first 10 days of January and the first week of February along the Atlantic Seaboard for active wintry weather featuring bouts of heavy precipitation and strong winds. Another red flag timeframe for widespread wintry conditions is the middle part of March from the nation’s midsection to the East Coast.

Potential El Niño is an Uncertain Element
As we were putting the finishing touches on this year’s long-range projections, the National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration issued an official El Niño watch. An El Niño is a warming of the central Pacific once every few years, from a combination of wind and waves in the tropics. It shakes up climate around the world, changing rain and temperature patterns. An El Niño could result in more rain this winter for drought-stricken California and Southern States, and a milder winter for the nation’s frigid northern tier. El Niños are usually strongest from December to April, but there’s no guarantee that we will see one this winter. We’ll just have to wait and see, but in the mean time, all of us at the Farmers’ Almanac suggest you stock up on firewood, sweaters, and hot cocoa. It certainly looks like another long winter of shivery and shovelry is on tap.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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My weatherman this evening ironically gave out the Winter Outlook for D,J,F  and if you are a snowlover and lives anywhere in Michigan and in the upper midwest and the plains and likes the cold, well, you will not like what I have to write. He said that we will have well below average precipitation and above normal temps. I dont think I buy what he said about this outlook. He also said that last year, that's the same outlook that they forecasted and instead, all hell broke out with record snows and cold. 

I dont understand why any weather man in the midwest would predict that. Are there any signals for this? Is el nino supposed to be that strong?

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I dont understand why any weather man in the midwest would predict that. Are there any signals for this? Is el nino supposed to be that strong?

no the strong el nino they faoecasted is a distant memory that that meterologist is wrong by saying that if you could look at the state of the enso region that there is no el nino present and with all of tha warmth over the gulf of alaska and greenland so that means where nikos_163 is at he will be in line for bitterly cold and snowy winter ahead.

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Saw that post by him earlier today.  I think the models are going to have big swings back and forth trying to figure out the changes in the atmosphere that are happening as we speak.  The jet stream is strengthening and models have a tough time picking out these transformations.  I'm noticing these flip flops on both the Euro and GFS the past couple days.  The new LRC may very well be showing up as we head into the first week of October.

 

The new JMA run is showing some troughiness Week 2 in the Plains/Upper Midwest/Midwest/GL.  This may suggest the new storm track that will be setting up next month.  Bodes well for both of our regions Gabel!

i was looking at that too and he said the new lrc is going to begin.

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I dont understand why any weather man in the midwest would predict that. Are there any signals for this? Is el nino supposed to be that strong?

I was surprised. He gave no explanation. I did not buy that outlook at all. I believe that we are in stored for one heck of a winter.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Analogs being used are '76-'77, '02-'03, '09-'10...

 

 

I agree, I trust lezak more than noaa. No offense to them but I just really believe in the LRC. Also it always seems like noaa is constantly updating there long range forecasts. Those three analogs produced snow in nebraska! I would prefer 2009-10 winter, I believe that was a weak El Niño with a negative nao/ao all winter long. Ended with 30" of snow in December and 50" total for the season. That winter is known for its monster x-mas blizzard that struck the central plains. On Christmas Day I was in zero visibility all day and night and had a snow depth of 2'!!!

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