Long Range Discussion for Autumn and Winter

[Madtown]

Well with those analogs it ain't looking good here. 26" 28" and 50" less than stellar in the snow department

[Niko]

Earlier today, TWC has also predicted a mild winter as well. Not sure what they are seeing, perhaps, they are assuming that El Nino will be playing a role this winter.

[Tom]

Earlier today, TWC has also predicted a mild winter as well. Not sure what they are seeing, perhaps, they are assuming that El Nino will be playing a role this winter.

I feel that NOAA/TWC, they all have an agenda, especially when there is a potential El Nino in the cards.  It's disheartening to see this since these forecasts are supposed to give the public a general idea of what to expect down the road.  I mean, there are probably some real smart mets in these places but there is most likely someone in the "higher ups" that makes the decisions.

[Tom]

I think the new JAMSTEC run comes out tomorrow.  Should be interesting to see if it stays course with a cooler Fall and cold Winter.

[Geos]

I wouldn't trust ANY NOAA forecasts this far out, especially for a possible El Nino event. That's more or less what a Super Nino would do to the U.S.

That is exactly what a strong el Nino outlook would look like! Not buying any mild outlooks that's for sure.

[Tom]

Incredible southern hemisphere sea ice coverage still breaking records, actually, blowing past previous records....

[Geos]

Incredible southern hemisphere sea ice coverage still breaking records, actually, blowing past previous records....

 

Was just about to post that chart! Incredible.

 

Another thing - I've been reading that the Arctic temperatures are starting to flip really cold right now. Arctic sea ice extent should be rocketing upwards very soon.

With these water temperatures, ice formation should come easy the rest of the month.

 

[Tom]

This would be crazy to see it happen in back to back years, but the 12z Euro Control is hinting at a very potent early season arctic attack to start off October!  Very similar to last years early October storm that hit the Dakotas. It would indeed be originating from the arctic as you can see the massive ridging near Alaska and the Archipelago region of Canada.  This may be the response to the Typhoon and another system in the north Pacific that seem to merge into one system.  That system then enters the waters of the Bearing Sea and pumps a massive ridge to the east that may dislodge some of that early season cold building up north.  Something to watch for sure. 

 

What grasps my attention even more are the 12z Euro ensembles developing a massive North Pacific ridge in the Day 10-15 range.  Let's see how this unfolds.

[Geos]

This would be crazy to see it happen in back to back years, but the 12z Euro Control is hinting at a very potent early season arctic attack to start off October!  Very similar to last years early October storm that hit the Dakotas. It would indeed be originating from the arctic as you can see the massive ridging near Alaska and the Archipelago region of Canada.  This may be the response to the Typhoon and another system in the north Pacific that seem to merge into one system.  That system then enters the waters of the Bearing Sea and pumps a massive ridge to the east that may dislodge some of that early season cold building up north.  Something to watch for sure. 

 

What grasps my attention even more are the 12z Euro ensembles developing a massive North Pacific ridge in the Day 10-15 range.  Let's see how this unfolds.

 

Wow, that's like -35° normal in KS! The Canadian Long Range is showing this.

 

[Tom]

You rarely see such significant departures from normal this far out. I'm interested in what the 18z GFS shows and if there are any similarities. Last nights Euro weeklies came out and they to show shots of cold for the 1st 2 weeks of October.

[Niko]

Wow, that's like -35° normal in KS! The Canadian Long Range is showing this.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014091912_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png

Holy Smokes....is that a heatwave?? That looks like warm air dominating the nation, or at least, most of the country.

[The Snowman]

Ain't diggin it....

Quite a bit would have to change between now and December for that to happen, IMO.

[Geos]

Holy Smokes....is that a heatwave?? That looks like warm air dominating the nation, or at least, most of the country.

 

Around here at least 70s are now considered above normal, so it really doesn't say how much above normal it could be. 

 

Starting to tame down now.

 

[Tom]

We may in fact be heading for a long tranquil period ahead.  Maybe even through the first couple weeks of October (which I don't mind at all).  Seems like the models are really relaxing the jet stream way up into Canada as the transition to the new pattern sets in.  The last few runs of the CFSv2 indicate a warm pattern through about mid October, then the bottom falls out.  I'd like to see the new Euro weeklies in the next day or two.

[Geos]

We may in fact be heading for a long tranquil period ahead.  Maybe even through the first couple weeks of October (which I don't mind at all).  Seems like the models are really relaxing the jet stream way up into Canada as the transition to the new pattern sets in.  The last few runs of the CFSv2 indicate a warm pattern through about mid October, then the bottom falls out.  I'd like to see the new Euro weeklies in the next day or two.

 

If I gauge it about right the first 10 days or so will be pretty mild then it's somewhere in the 10-15th range is when the average temps stay below normal.

 

If we don't get a frost in early October, then I don't think will see Indian Summer this time around. I just don't predict that will see very many mild spells past mid-October this year.

[Tom]

CFS keeps on building a huge pool of cold air in Canada as we head into late October and early November.  This model has been showing signs of a lot of systems from the Plains to the Lakes in October with many cold fronts.  It might be a chilly Halloween this year!

[Tom]

Looks like that 2nd Typhoon will be a rather strong one to hit near Japan around the 29th which should correlate to a major trough around Oct 7-10th.  CFS starting to see it....could be our first true freezes in the region.  Today's run on this model has been one of the coldest yet.  It' also keeps painting a cold open to November from the Plains to the Lakes.  East coast seems to stay above normal which translates to a storm track thru our region.

[Tom]

This is exactly where you want the intense cold to be building in early November up in Canada.  Almost perfect alignment to how it happened last year, expect it to push farther South and East as winter takes hold. 

[Geos]

Looks like that 2nd Typhoon will be a rather strong one to hit near Japan around the 29th which should correlate to a major trough around Oct 7-10th.  CFS starting to see it....could be our first true freezes in the region.  Today's run on this model has been one of the coldest yet.  It' also keeps painting a cold open to November from the Plains to the Lakes.  East coast seems to stay above normal which translates to a storm track thru our region.

 

Is that 850mb or 2 meter temperatures?

[Tom]

Is that 850mb or 2 meter temperatures?

2 meter temps in Celcius...

[Tom]

Took a look at the CFSv2 snow depth forecasts and its still showing a snowy pattern for the 2nd half of October into early November from the Plains to the Lakes.  Cold signals still on track.

[Tom]

The new September run on the JAMSTEC model is in and continues to show a cold winter ahead.  If you take a look at the temperature anomaly you can see a pocket of much below normal temps in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  After reviewing this map, this is starting to look a lot like last year's temperature layout.  The model is also starting to expand the cold into Canada as one would expect to see as we get closer to winter. 

 

What is interesting now, the model is starting to show more moisture for the eastern CONUS for Dec-Feb.  It has expanded above normal precip into the OV/GL and parts of the Midwest. The model still keeps the Plains and Midwest wet through the rest of Fall, but almost blow torchy (which doesn't make sense).  It basically paints the entire globe above normal, this must be some sort of error in the model.  Siberia is already starting to build a snow cover in that part of the world and the model is showing above normal temps which doesn't make sense.

 

For all those paying attention to the Pacific SST's, the JAMSTEC still has the warm pool of water in the NE Pacific and in the Bearing Sea.  The waters near Japan are below normal which suggests storminess.  Now, what I find really interesting is the model has begun to shrink the body of warm water in the central pacific and it has cooled it over the last 3 runs quite substantially from July's run.  Is this a trend???  Will there even be an El Nino???  Time will tell.  However, what I do see evolving from some of the trusted models out there is a consensus that it will be another brutal winter ahead for a lot of this nation.

[Tom]

I mentioned not too long ago that I believe this winter may have the capacity to hold strong well into Spring and the JAMSTEC model is showing this....I think it would be a good idea to prepare for this upcoming winter.  NOAA should seriously consider changing their forecast and give the Public what they deserve...a real winter forecast and not blind side them by showing a warm winter!  It pisses me off when they have their own agenda.

 

JAMSTEC, EURO and JMA are all very respected seasonal forecasting models and they are all showing a seriously different outcome from NOAA.  Wake up!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Tom, a blow torchy fall may not be the worst thing. It would honestly be more of a Nina like pattern, but I prefer that to a Nino to be honest. Our snowiest winter here in Milwaukee in recent vintage came after a warm fall.

[Tom]

Tom, a blow torchy fall may not be the worst thing. It would honestly be more of a Nina like pattern, but I prefer that to a Nino to be honest. Our snowiest winter here in Milwaukee in recent vintage came after a warm fall.

That is true, I do remember some of the warm Autumn's we had in the past, I think it was 2009 and that winter ended up being cold and snowy.  Given the pattern we have been in since last Fall and the warm waters in the NE Pacific still in control, a warm Fall doesn't make sense to me.  I guess we shall see how October turns out and if November is cold like the CFSv2 is indicating.

 

I do feel that a lot of this region will have ample chances for snow fall and some big snowstorms.  Unlike last year where it was more centralized in the lower lakes and a sort of doughnut hole in IA/WI (except the Northwoods area) much of the region didn't get blasted.

[Tom]

Take a look at how much of Siberia is predicted to be under a snow cover by Oct 2nd on the GFS...that's wild to see!  It's been showing this run after run.  Northern parts of Canada and the archipelago region have their fair share of snow cover as well.

[Niko]

Tom, the extended 45 -day accu-weather forecast in my neck of the woods is welcoming November into the mid 50s for high temps and 40s for lows. I know thats way too early, but just taking a quick glance makes me wonder if they see a warm pattern developing by then. Hope not!

[Tom]

After analyzing the CFS maps over the past week or so, I'm beginning to see a pattern evolve in a storm track.  I think we will see systems dig into the Rockies in late October/early November as bigger troughs dig in from Canada.  These systems will then eject out into the Plains and then run into the Lakes.  The east coast seems to have a ridge through November and if this is the type of pattern we see from the new LRC, maybe the new JAMSTEC run last night is sniffing something out.  It has above normal temps on the east coast during Dec-Feb and the cold centered back farther west....interesting.

[tim the weatherman]

After analyzing the CFS maps over the past week or so, I'm beginning to see a pattern evolve in a storm track.  I think we will see systems dig into the Rockies in late October/early November as bigger troughs dig in from Canada.  These systems will then eject out into the Plains and then run into the Lakes.  The east coast seems to have a ridge through November and if this is the type of pattern we see from the new LRC, maybe the new JAMSTEC run last night is sniffing something out.  It has above normal temps on the east coast during Dec-Feb and the cold centered back farther west....interesting.

since you mentioned that the east coast will be warmer and further west will be cold if this is the pattern fits with the southeast ridge developing.

[Geos]

The new September run on the JAMSTEC model is in and continues to show a cold winter ahead.  If you take a look at the temperature anomaly you can see a pocket of much below normal temps in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  After reviewing this map, this is starting to look a lot like last year's temperature layout.  The model is also starting to expand the cold into Canada as one would expect to see as we get closer to winter. 

 

What is interesting now, the model is starting to show more moisture for the eastern CONUS for Dec-Feb.  It has expanded above normal precip into the OV/GL and parts of the Midwest. The model still keeps the Plains and Midwest wet through the rest of Fall, but almost blow torchy (which doesn't make sense).  It basically paints the entire globe above normal, this must be some sort of error in the model.  Siberia is already starting to build a snow cover in that part of the world and the model is showing above normal temps which doesn't make sense.

 

For all those paying attention to the Pacific SST's, the JAMSTEC still has the warm pool of water in the NE Pacific and in the Bearing Sea.  The waters near Japan are below normal which suggests storminess.  Now, what I find really interesting is the model has begun to shrink the body of warm water in the central pacific and it has cooled it over the last 3 runs quite substantially from July's run.  Is this a trend???  Will there even be an El Nino???  Time will tell.  However, what I do see evolving from some of the trusted models out there is a consensus that it will be another brutal winter ahead for a lot of this nation.

 

Interesting developments. Just finished reading this new article. Yeah no kidding El Niño is not happening!

http://scitechdaily.com/possibility-el-nino-event-2014-fading/

 

Some people just don't want to state the obvious until it is undeniable. 

[Tom]

Interesting developments. Just finished reading this new article. Yeah no kidding El Niño is not happening!

http://scitechdaily.com/possibility-el-nino-event-2014-fading/

 

Some people just don't want to state the obvious until it is undeniable. 

I'm really wondering if the record sea ice extent in Antarctica is starting to have an effect on the modeling of the proposed dwindling El Nino.  If you think about it, there is an ice shield that has expanded to a little over 21,500,000 square kilometers.  Its possible that some of that cold water being produced by the record ice is slowly eating away at the warm waters and may cause the wind directions change down the road.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I love the sound of those CFS maps, sounds more like 07-08 than last year and that would be ideal.

[Tom]

I love the sound of those CFS maps, sounds more like 07-08 than last year and that would be ideal.

The pattern shaping up for a fast start to winter and the overall storm track is really looking favorable for our region and the Plains (which got the short end of the stick last winter).

 

I just read JB's post on WxBell and he deciphered the latest JAMSTEC run even farther and evaluated the 500mb pattern for December.  He says it rivals the top 3 nastiest Decembers to ever that hit the U.S...'69,'76','00...this would be an incredible start to the winter and the models are honing in on it as we speak.  Some of you can remember the Ice Age winter of 1976-78 and the more recent December of 2000 where we were consistently hit with snowstorms and arctic outbreaks.  This upcoming winter seems to have it all to become a record setter once again in back to back years. 

[james1976]

The pattern shaping up for a fast start to winter and the overall storm track is really looking favorable for our region and the Plains (which got the short end of the stick last winter).

 

I just read JB's post on WxBell and he deciphered the latest JAMSTEC run even farther and evaluated the 500mb pattern for December.  He says it rivals the top 3 nastiest Decembers to ever that hit the U.S...'69,'76','00...this would be an incredible start to the winter and the models are honing in on it as we speak.  Some of you can remember the Ice Age winter of 1976-78 and the more recent December of 2000 where we were consistently hit with snowstorms and arctic outbreaks.  This upcoming winter seems to have it all to become a record setter once again in back to back years. 

I remember December 2000. Storm after storm!

[Geos]

December of 2000 had the most snow in any given winter month since I can remember. 45" measured at home! Still waiting to see a snowstorm actually hit in November. There was a hyped up Alberta Clipper in mid November back in the mid 90s that dumped a band of 8-12" over the local area.

[Tom]

December of 2000 had the most snow in any given winter month since I can remember. 45" measured at home! Still waiting to see a snowstorm actually hit in November. There was a hyped up Alberta Clipper in mid November back in the mid 90s that dumped a band of 8-12" over the local area.

I think we may be seeing some snowstorms in November buddy!  Would be crazy to have a snow cover during Thanksgiving week and open up December rockin' and rollin'!

[Tom]

CFS continues to open up November on a very cold note...bear in mind these are high temps, not lows...last year this model did very well to pick up on trends in the 30-45 day range.

[Niko]

CFS continues to open up November on a very cold note...bear in mind these are high temps, not lows...last year this model did very well to pick up on trends in the 30-45 day range.

This map shows highs in the 20s for my area. Insane!

[james1976]

CFS continues to open up November on a very cold note...bear in mind these are high temps, not lows...last year this model did very well to pick up on trends in the 30-45 day range.

That would be about 30 for a high for me. Bring it!

[Tom]

Just listened to JB's video on WxBell and the new weekly run of the JMA showing the trough week 2, and its also seeing the Typhoon train in the western pacific.  What I found interesting on this run is now the model has lost the ridging that it had building in the central U.S. and instead the model is seeing the NW NAMER ridge building week 3 & 4 as we get deeper into October and closer to November.  This is significant, bc now we are starting to see the long range models come into agreement that November may start off real chilly and stormy in the central/eastern U.S.  October certainly looks below normal for a lot of this region.