Long Range Discussion for Autumn and Winter

[Tom]

Taking a look at the current 70mb temperature forecasts off the 00z GFS, pay attention to the coldest pocket of air currently located in the northern hemisphere right over Siberia.  Over the next 1-2 weeks, we may start seeing the SSW event that is currently taking place over that region begin to split up that "cold pool" and a lobe of it reaches into parts of NW NAMER by months end, and then finally by week 2 it may be completed split into 2 distinct cold pools...one in Eurasia and the other over North America.  Is this nature showing signs of a weakened state of the Polar Vortex this season?  Will this be a common theme this winter?  Is this one of the signs winter showing its face by next month?  I believe so.

[james1976]

Some good reads, Tom!

[Tom]

The last 4 consecutive runs of the CFSv2 are now consistently showing a chilly open to November through the first 15 days.  I wanted to see if anyone of the last 4 runs was a fluke run, but just to be sure, I waited till the 00z run today to see if its still picking up on a cold signal.  Sure enough it is.  Here are maps of 10 day intervals.

 

This model is also picking up on a -NAO/AO to develop around the 30th of October leading into November.

[Tom]

Alright guys, both GFS/CFSv2 have a wintry system in the long range as we roll on into November.  It's more than likely going to be a Plains/Upper Midwest special if it does materialize.  Utilizing the East Asian Theory, it fits the pattern as well.  Some real cold air has been showing up in the models in the first parts of November, especially hitting the PAC NW/Upper Midwest/Plains initially then rotating through down the road.

[CentralNebWeather]

Tom, that is some chilly air in the mid section of the country.  Getting excited to track storms again.  I know we will be disappointed more than we are happy, but that is part of it.  Keep posting the maps, I have more faith in you than some of the forecasts that I have seen.

[Tom]

Tom, that is some chilly air in the mid section of the country.  Getting excited to track storms again.  I know we will be disappointed more than we are happy, but that is part of it.  Keep posting the maps, I have more faith in you than some of the forecasts that I have seen.

I think your region is in line for a number of storms in November.  Should be an exciting month for you guys out that way.  Watch the models latch onto the idea of more blocking developing as we head into November and by then you will see true arctic are invade the lower 48.  You feel the "effects" of a -AO more in November, then October.

[tim the weatherman]

i have done my figuring on the jamestec model and the stormtrack looks like it will ride the boundry from warm to the east to the cold to the west so that means that people in the chicago metro area will be getting into the panhandle hooks col lows and could be in line for some big snowstorms and blizzards this winter.http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014.gif

[CentralNebWeather]

Sure like the look of this model.  Really paints a chilly temp. profile in the Central US.

[clintbeed1993]

I like the weather pattern that is trying to set up for this winter for us in the plains.  We sure got left out last winter, so it would be great for redemption this year.  Very mild and moist flow setting up that I think could repeat throughout the winter.

[Tom]

I like the weather pattern that is trying to set up for this winter for us in the plains.  We sure got left out last winter, so it would be great for redemption this year.  Very mild and moist flow setting up that I think could repeat throughout the winter.

Today's new run on the CFS is outrageous for your area next month.  Looks like winter will be coming out of the gates fast and furious in November.  Could be a record setting month if it aligns just right.  Just my thinking about your region as it looks right now.

[tim the weatherman]

andrew hassaid that the stormtrack will be from the central plains to the midwest and the greatlakes this winter so that means that chicago to detroit needs to be prepared for this winter according to the lrc.

[Geos]

Keep a close eye on that SSW event over Eurasia...its been growing in intensity over the last week every day.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

 

We could be tapping into that early season Siberian express in November sometime.

 

That's really expanding now. Will likely be a common occurrence this winter season I'm thinking. Beginning to think low solar activity and SSW's are connected up somehow.

All good reads of yours on this page!

[Money]

It's almost time boys/girls. Winter is almost here.

[Tom]

That's really expanding now. Will likely be a common occurrence this winter season I'm thinking. Beginning to think low solar activity and SSW's are connected up somehow.

All good reads of yours on this page!

Today's new run continues to grow in size and intensity.  It will prob be the season's first real SSW event in the northern hemisphere from what it looks like.  The models will begin to digest these changes in the atmosphere over the next 2 weeks.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[Tom]

The new JAMSTEC run is in for October and its still painting a colder and wetter central CONUS.  Although, this run is nowhere near as cold as the last run, but as is always the case with long range models you have to decipher the ideas the model is trying to hint at.  The important factors are the warm pool hugging the west coast, the very warm waters near the Baja that would suggest an active southern branch and finally the modiki type El Nino.

 

The model is painting above normal precip from the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  As we have seen thus far this Autumn, a very wet pattern has developed and looks to continue into November.  Good sign for the LRC.

[Niko]

Alot of mets are thinking we will have a mod to strong El Nino type winter this year. Hopefully, that will change into a weak type. Every extended winter outlook I am reading has me below normal snowfall and above normal temps.       Very interesting.

[Tom]

Alot of mets are thinking we will have a mod to strong El Nino type winter this year. Hopefully, that will change into a weak type. Every extended winter outlook I am reading has me below normal snowfall and above normal temps.       Very interesting.

The CFSv2 was the only model that had a strong El Nino being predicted back in the Spring.  Current forecasts have it barely reaching moderate territory, with a weak El Nino being the more likely solution.  Not sure what models these mets are looking at.

[Tom]

I noticed the most recent Euro weeklies are much colder looking for the central/eastern CONUS come mid November and beyond.  Previous runs were blow torchy and didn't make any sense.

[Tom]

Check out the biter cold brewing up in Siberia by end of October!  That's pretty insane to see this early in the season.  Talk about a fast start to their winter season. 

[Tom]

The CFSv2 has been getting real chilly and snowy for the month of November.  Nearly all members are showing a snow cover for parts of the Plains/Midwest/Lakes!  The projected pattern shaping up for next month is looking great for snow lovers.  I'm projecting that by mid November is when the real true winter pattern begins to set in.  It may lay off the gas peddle sometime towards the end of the month (just like it is this month), but then reload and hold in December.

[Madtown]

So what is the best analog for this year? I have heard '76 which brought my area only 28" of snow.  Between that and this big cold shot that was supposed to be here this week kinda disappearing and now pushed out to mid Nov, I don't like the trend.

[Tom]

So what is the best analog for this year? I have heard '76 which brought my area only 28" of snow.  Between that and this big cold shot that was supposed to be here this week kinda disappearing and now pushed out to mid Nov, I don't like the trend.

Top 5 analogs Wx Bell is using are:

 

2003-2004 

1976-1977 

2013-2014 

2009-2010

1951-1952

 

Specifically, December 1976 is being used for this winter.  That winter also started off on a fast note around mid November. I posted an article about that winter a few weeks ago.  As for the cold shot your speaking of, the Typhoon Rule is working quite well.  This week there is a pretty big Nor'easter that is going to hit the east coast and we are starting to feel the effects today and tomorrow with that respect.  You never know where that energy will develop.  That is why anyone in the central/eastern CONUS is on "watch".

 

As for the trend in the longer range models, they are looking quite interesting.  Utilizing the Strat Warming theory and high latitude blocking that is being forecast as we head into November, I like the trends.  Your going to see the models respond to the SSW event going on over Siberia and the CFSv2 is predicting both NAO/AO head negative around Nov 5th or so and through mid month.  Around mid November is when I'm thinking a real arctic invasion may be in the works.  The CFS/CFSv2/Euro Weeklies have a massive cold shot for the nation and that fits right in line with the Strat Warming which has a 2-4 week lag.

[Tom]

As I wrote that last post, I looked at the latest CFS model run and its lining up quite well with the Strat Warming/Blocking .  Here are daytime high temps around mid month and you can see the cold signal. 

[tim the weatherman]

As I wrote that last post, I looked at the latest CFS model run and its lining up quite well with the Strat Warming/Blocking .  Here are daytime high temps around mid month and you can see the cold signal. 

andrew was eluding about a storm hitting late month and into early december and this have to do with the lrc cycling around that time and he also has stating that this will be the type of system that hitting arond the 13th of this month so we might have a big storm hitting around thanksgiving this year.

[Tom]

Well, well, well...Euro ensembles are flipping cold in a heart beat as we head into November, especially the Plains.  Exactly what I was eluding to would happen as the pattern evolved.  Check out the recent 12z run today compared to the run on the 20th 00z , then check out the Day 15 map and how the cold is beginning to show up, erasing any ideas of a blow torch.  These are huge changes in an ensemble since there are 51 members.  BTW, Euro control is agreeing on the colder signal as well.

[Niko]

The CFSv2 was the only model that had a strong El Nino being predicted back in the Spring.  Current forecasts have it barely reaching moderate territory, with a weak El Nino being the more likely solution.  Not sure what models these mets are looking at.

I have a strong feeling these mets will change their thinking in a few weeks and paint my area with below normal temps and with above normal snowfall.

[james1976]

-teens C would be single digits F for highs.

[Tom]

-teens C would be single digits F for highs.

It's probably not going to get that cold, in fact, its likely not...but you can use these maps and get the idea of a cold signal.  Maybe high temps in the 20's are what you will see.

[james1976]

Andrew has a good new read about the LRC. This is how he ends his post:

To summarize:

- Indications from the Lezak Recurring Cycle currently favor a snowy winter ahead for the Midwest and Plains.

[tim the weatherman]

and he also has stated this (For instance, if we saw a very strong storm system in early October, and the cycle length was later determined to be around 52 days, we might expect that same piece of energy associated with that October strong storm to return in late November or early December. The same happens with ridges of high pressure, minor storm systems, etc.)

[james1976]

Long range GFS is awesome. Showing a cutter around the 28th and much colder air in early Nov with a big (potentially wintry) storm in early Nov. Long range is starting to look exciting. The models are coming together.

[Tom]

Strat Warming and Blocking will get things rocking in November...CFSv2 seeing the cold coming early on in November and also comes with it some snow!  Gotta give this model some respect if it comes into fruition, sniffing this out in early October.  It seems it does better as we head deeper into the cold season.  October it was having a heck of a problem with feedback issues.

[gabel23]

Strat Warming and Blocking will get things rocking in November...CFSv2 seeing the cold coming early on in November and also comes with it some snow!  Gotta give this model some respect if it comes into fruition, sniffing this out in early October.  It seems it does better as we head deeper into the cold season.  October it was having a heck of a problem with feedback issues.

Pretty amazing how the gfs has a storm coming out in a similar way that is being shown in the upper left of that map. Fantasy I know but I like what I'm seeing in the long range!

[Tom]

Pretty amazing how the gfs has a storm coming out in a similar way that is being shown in the upper left of that map. Fantasy I know but I like what I'm seeing in the long range!

I post these maps as "guidance", not to be expressed as "exact" snowfall amounts.  Like you said, I do like what this model is starting to show in the long range.  Just a matter of time before Ol' Man Winter is going to show its face this season!  Your region looks it will be the first to see some snow.  I hope you do.  Your region was shafted last season.

[bud2380]

18z gfs showing a bit of snow. Definitely getting colder as we head into November.

[tim the weatherman]

The winter season for cities like Chicago is expected to be cold, but not as extreme as last year. In fact, some cities may actually be 7-9 degrees warmer than last year's three-month average. Below normal snowfall totals are expected in this region. Chicago could fail to pick up even 30 inches of snow this year, and Minneapolis could also see below average snowfall totals. (abc7chicago)

[Geos]

Top 5 analogs Wx Bell is using are:

 

2003-2004 

1976-1977 

2013-2014 

2009-2010

1951-1952

 

Specifically, December 1976 is being used for this winter.  That winter also started off on a fast note around mid November. I posted an article about that winter a few weeks ago.  As for the cold shot your speaking of, the Typhoon Rule is working quite well.  This week there is a pretty big Nor'easter that is going to hit the east coast and we are starting to feel the effects today and tomorrow with that respect.  You never know where that energy will develop.  That is why anyone in the central/eastern CONUS is on "watch".

 

As for the trend in the longer range models, they are looking quite interesting.  Utilizing the Strat Warming theory and high latitude blocking that is being forecast as we head into November, I like the trends.  Your going to see the models respond to the SSW event going on over Siberia and the CFSv2 is predicting both NAO/AO head negative around Nov 5th or so and through mid month.  Around mid November is when I'm thinking a real arctic invasion may be in the works.  The CFS/CFSv2/Euro Weeklies have a massive cold shot for the nation and that fits right in line with the Strat Warming which has a 2-4 week lag.

 

I think all those winters had above normal snowfalls in this area except 03-04, which was 42" - about average. Now the winter before was cold and dry.

Don't know a lot about 51-52, but I heard 76-77 was kind of rough in this area. I definitely know what last winter was like and 09-10.

[Maxim]

Heard 1979-1980 could be a possible analog

[Geos]

Heard 1979-1980 could be a possible analog

 

Could be a bit of a stretch. The autumn of 1979 was pretty dry in the Midwest and that hasn't been the case this season so far.

[Money]

0z GFS continues to be nice in the long range. Cutter on the 31st through LSE, and then brings in the cold air (1040 H pressure) looks like highs in the low-mid 30's starting in Nov.