October 2014 observations and discussion

[Geos]

October is starting next Wednesday. About time to start discussing the month!

 

What might October bring?...

More tranquil weather? 

Powerful low pressure systems?

Colder than normal air masses?

[Tom]

A tranquil open to October, but the month will turn cold and stormy sometime around the 9yh/10th I think.  CFSv2 seeing it big time now...could be a prolong stretch of much below normal weather.

[james1976]

I like the looks of this system for next weekend.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[james1976]

A strong low pulling down cold air. I know it wont be snow but hopefully we get a lot of this in the coming months!

[Tom]

Ya, that system is wrapped up big time!  Highs in the 50's for next Wednesday and Thursday struggle to even get into the 50's.

[Tom]

18z GFS not as cold this run around the 10th or so, but it sure does catch the cold brewing in Canada.  Typical model flip flopping.  I think this will be a serious shot of early season cold week 2.

[Geos]

A strong low pulling down cold air. I know it wont be snow but hopefully we get a lot of this in the coming months!

 

That's pretty chilly. Exciting looking!

Waiting for the twisterdata maps to load up so I can see some sounding data.

[Tom]

I like the looks of this system for next weekend.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

That system originates right near OK and rides a trailing front and rapidly spins up into a rather windy and strong storm that hits the Lakes.  Could it be the first Pan Handle hook type system to set up the new LRC pattern?  This could be a good sign to see wound up storms this year.

[Geos]

NAEFS - Canadian showing some cold anamolies.

 

 

That's definitely a windy system.

 

 

 

Here's a sounding near Wausau, WI at 174 hours. Looks like sub 40° readings in the core of the deformation band.

 

 

Wow, the model sees snow!

 

[Tom]

Both the Euro and GFS are seeing this system.  Could be our regions first system to track as the new LRC forms.  Both models with very different tracks but agree with a rather strong system.

[james1976]

WOW....987?? I was thinking the same thing Tom, that maybe this is the beginning of the new LRC?

[james1976]

00z GFS still has the system for next week but not as wrapped up. Nice to see it still there though. 

[Tom]

Next Sat/Sun/Mon look very chilly around these parts on the 00z Euro...daytime highs in low/mid 50's, very cold night time lows.

 

Edit: 00z Euro Ensembles and Control are both on board with huge trough around the 9th/10th and keep it around through the extended.

[Tom]

I can't believe the GFS sniffed out the longer range pattern before the Euro.  I guess sometimes that model can score a coupe!  It's nice to see the Euro ensembles seeing the ridging taking control in the west all the way up into Alaska.  When it pumps up way north, that's when you see the coldest air and not Pacific origin.  I'm posting the 10 day ensemble mean 500mb pattern for Day 10 & 15.  This looks cold!

 

Keep in mind, as you get farther out not all ensemble members agree so that is why you see less agreement in the lower heights around central Canada and the eastern U.S.  As we get closer in time, the model shows it.

[Tom]

A lot of blocking starting to show up on the Euro....both AO/NAO turn negative.

[james1976]

I can't believe the GFS sniffed out the longer range pattern before the Euro.  I guess sometimes that model can score a coupe!  It's nice to see the Euro ensembles seeing the ridging taking control in the west all the way up into Alaska.  When it pumps up way north, that's when you see the coldest air and not Pacific origin.  I'm posting the 10 day ensemble mean 500mb pattern for Day 10 & 15.  This looks cold!

 

Keep in mind, as you get farther out not all ensemble members agree so that is why you see less agreement in the lower heights around central Canada and the eastern U.S.  As we get closer in time, the model shows it.

Nice bullseye right over Iowa in that first graph!

[james1976]

I just don't see how there can be an El Nino with how the long range models are looking.

[james1976]

TWC was talking about the cold coming next weekend. It's starting to look promising.

[Tom]

12z Euro bringing a pretty potent trough into mid section and lakes region around the 10th as expected.  Another reinforcing shot later on.  The ensembles keep the trough positioned in the same locations Plains/Upper Midwest/Midwest and western lakes through the extended and most likely beyond the 15 day period.

[Tom]

00z GFS still trying to pain some snow in the Northwoods...albeit light...I know the colors up there are already reaching Peak territory.  Next Fri/Sat look real chilly on this run around these parts.

 

This is probably the coldest run yet this season for a large chunk of the midsection of the nation.  Looks like its ride on schedule given the Typhoon Rule and there is agreement with the Euro to hit sometime around the 10th.  There even could be some mixed snow flakes!  Hello October!

[james1976]

12z GFS is looking pretty cold for the next 2 weekends. Once the first cold shot hits next weekend it doesnt look to warm much for the rest of the extended. I think the East Asian Theory is looking to effect us with a colder and stormier pattern.

[Tom]

12z GFS is looking pretty cold for the next 2 weekends. Once the first cold shot hits next weekend it doesnt look to warm much for the rest of the extended. I think the East Asian Theory is looking to effect us with a colder and stormier pattern.

I'm mind boggled at what I'm seeing run after run on the GFS heading into October.  I haven't seen a pattern like this during for the first half of October in a very long time.  I actually cant recall a year that started off like this, maybe never.

[Tom]

GFS, CFSv2 and the Euro continue to show major blocking setting up during the 1st half of October.  All models have a negative AO/NAO developing, with the AO really tanking indicating the NW NAMER ridge developing.

[Hawkeye]

Can someone post today's 12z Euro 144 and 168 hr surface temp maps?  I'm curious to know how low it has us going Sat and Sun mornings.

[james1976]

We're going back to these type of maps!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Tom]

Can someone post today's 12z Euro 144 and 168 hr surface temp maps?  I'm curious to know how low it has us going Sat and Sun mornings.

D**n, 12z Euro has a serious cold shot coming this weekend.  In line with the GFS...crazy!  I can't imagine the next round of cold coming beyond the 10th when that air will be Arctic origin...hang on to your hats!

 

 

Check out that cold up in S CA ready to come down south around Day 10...someone is going to have freezes from this IMO.

[Hawkeye]

Monday 12z GFS says we don't have to worry about a freeze or even a frost this weekend.  That makes me happy.

[james1976]

Yup, GFS is starting to flip back to a warmer look.

[Geos]

Definitely have to look out late next week when a gigantic Aleutian Low moves into Alaska. That would likely buckle the jet stream down into our region.

 

[james1976]

Is that a 968 Low?

[Tom]

12z Euro has 2 "Clipper" type systems traversing the region on Sunday and Tuesday with reinforcing shots of cold air.  A very chilly weekend on tap for sure.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro is colder than the GFS.  GFS keeps the 0 degree 850mb line northeast of Iowa, but the Euro plunges it through the entire state.  That could easily be the difference between upper 30s and low 30s in the morning... a big deal for the garden.

[Geos]

Canadian NAEFS coming in colder for the 8-14 day period.

 

[james1976]

I know it's only one model but man, GFS has really got away from the cold outlook.

[Geos]

18z GFS showing a 952mb low crashing into southern AK on this run. If that doesn't send a trough into the Midwest, I don't know what will!

 

[Tom]

18z GFS showing a 952mb low crashing into southern AK on this run. If that doesn't send a trough into the Midwest, I don't know what will!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

On top of that, the AO is projected to tank to around -3 by then.  Lot's blocking showing up right around then.

[james1976]

952? How is that even possible?

[Geos]

952? How is that even possible?

 

That's 28.11" of Hg. It's basically a mid-latitude hurricane!

It's probably an extra tropical system on the GFS.

[Tom]

The last couple runs on the GFS flipped back cold and where it should be considering the AO will be tanking to levels we haven't seen since Mar-April 2012 when the AO reached record low territories.  The atmosphere in the northern latitudes will have soo much blocking and I expect a major trough.  CFS was hinting at it last week run after run that around the 10th-15th we should be expecting a major trough.  Using the Typhoon rule as well, it correlates well with a trough in that time period.

 

Check out what the Euro is forecasting on the AO and the GFS agrees.  As for this weekend, Euro is lowering temps a little farther Sat and Sat night.   Keeps it cold through Tuesday.

[james1976]

Local mets have lowered my highs into the 50s for this weekend. Looks like the Euro may be a bit more reliable right now. GFS seems to flip flop a bit more.