October 2014 observations and discussion

[tim the weatherman]

I don't get the CPC outlooks, they're calling for above normal temps for most of the country through the end of October and early November.

i don't get that either.

[Tom]

I don't get the CPC outlooks, they're calling for above normal temps for most of the country through the end of October and early November.

That's part of the problem....its the CPC.  Don't weigh all your hope on their forecasts.  Last year during the winter they were calling for a "ridge", "ridge", "ridge"...but the "fridge", "fridge", "fridge" won.  Actually, the LRC did extremely well last year.  Let's see how it does this year.  Give them a day or two and they will start changing it.

[Maxim]

wow

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014102312!!chart.gif

[Geos]

Boom!  12z Euro unloads a major shot of cold into the heartland with a 1038mb early season arctic HP into the Plains!  Doesn't have the snow, YET, but certainly has the COLD...still time to see what track this system takes.  I'm sure this will turn some heads finally and maybe the deniers may want to hop on board.  The winter pattern is evolving before our eyes.

 

Could it be possible to have back to back daytime high temps in the upper 30's?  Crazy...Happy Halloween!

 

With regards to the possibility of snow. Remember (towards anyone) these strong dynamic systems can produce their own cold air and surprise you with a some snow. Would not be surprised if there was a period of rain and snow on the back side of this system for somebody!

 

Hit 60° today. Solid freeze this morning killed the the rest of my annuals off. 

[james1976]

ONE year ago today I received 1 inch of snow in the morning. It was awesome.

[bud2380]

Gfs and gem now showing strong southerly flow from midweek through next weekend. Pretty big change on the gfs. Not really showing a storm around Halloween anymore. Gem has some substantial rain nov1. Euro looks cooler though. So we'll see which way models go but I don't see any snow anytime soon.

[Tom]

00z Euro still showing a potent and windy looking GL storm system.  First Lake Effect snows of the season up in the U.P. are possible with this Halloween storm.  Still showing high temps very close to what they were yesterday, a tad warmer. 

 

The models are going to flip flop back and forth in the longer range.  SSW and SOI crash will take time to feed into the modeling, IMO.  Still staying course unless something drastic starts showing up.

 

Almost major SSW event erupting in the arctic regions right now...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[Money]

GFS back to a cold Halloween with temps in the low-mid 30's. Warms back up though a few days after

[Tom]

12z Euro ensembles keep digging a bigger trough near the Lakes and East around Halloween weekend.  Notice the difference in the handling of the trough in the west on 00z 23rd for 12z 30th, to today's 12z run on the same day...big difference, right?  Yes, its farther off the coast!  That creates a stronger down stream trough.  You have to pay attention to that in the longer range models bc they tend to keep the trough near the coast where there are WARM waters, not COLD, it just doesn't make sense.  Again, notice the 00z 23rd run for Nov 00z 1st and compare it to todays 12z run...trough is nudged a bit farther west and bingo, bigger trough in the east where it didn't have it just 2 days ago!

 

 

Besides all that, what a gorgeous Autumn day today with ample sunshine and high temps in the upper 60's.  It's probably going to be a Top 3 Autumn weekend today with all the beautiful colors in the leaves just picturess!  I don't think the colors have been this vibrant in years.  Enjoy it!

[Niko]

Felt like Spring today as temps climbed into the 60s. Even warmer tommorow and especially next week. The 70s are no longer in my forecast anymore. Now, they are predicting a high of 66F, instead of 72F. Temps nosedive by weeks end. Highs not getting outta the 40s and lows in the 20s.

 

BTW....colors here are peak and going towards bare. Lot of trees  have lost their leaves.

[Geos]

Made it to 62° after the clouds and haze cleared out. 

 

18z GFS back with the trough.

 

 

 

Nationwide departures so far this month.

Easy to see where the troughs have favored!

 

[Tom]

Despite the recent spike in solar activity, the geomagnetic index is still very low which is indicated by the blue lines on this illustration.  Research has shown that a low geomagnetic index favors blocking in the northern latitudes during the winter months and given the trend in low solar activity one would suggest more blocking in future years to come.

[Tom]

00z Euro trying to whip up a rainy, windy clipper type system in the lower lakes with a strong NNE wind off the lake.  This would be a decent synoptic and LES system in the winter.

[Tom]

Are the CPC models starting to respond to the SSW event taking place?  IMO, CPC AO forecast is starting to respond.  Now it is looking like a less of a chance of the AO heading into higher positive territory.  Something that I wasn't buying into before, maybe its time to see the potential in the pattern looking ahead.

[Geos]

Despite the recent spike in solar activity, the geomagnetic index is still very low which is indicated by the blue lines on this illustration.  Research has shown that a low geomagnetic index favors blocking in the northern latitudes during the winter months and given the trend in low solar activity one would suggest more blocking in future years to come.

 

The sun is a bit active now, but it's not hurling geomagnetic storms at us. There is quite a few sunspots, but they're quiet. If that giant 2192 sunspot doesn't send off any CME's in the next couple days, then the Earth is at least clear from that and it's possible effects.

 

Going to take advantage of the nice weather today and rake leaves - even though they won't all fall down for another 10 days or so.

[Tom]

Wow,12z GFS is really freakin' cold next Saturday.  Model picking up on the -NAO and doesn't have high temps getting out of the upper 30's for WI/IL/IN/MI.

[Hawkeye]

Increasingly looking like the first widespread freeze or hard freeze across the midwest next weekend.  The latest GFS and Euro now both have temps well down into the 20s for most of us.  It'll be tough to watch my very colorful garden get zapped, but I can't complain when it lasts until Halloween.  Last year we had two night's in the upper 20s in September.

[Tom]

Both Euro and GFS showing potential first lake snows of the season...albeit a minor event, but snow showers/squalls will be flying in the air. 

[Geos]

Up to 68° here. I bet money that this is the last "warm" spell of the season. The freeze on Wednesday killed off all the annuals in my yard. 

 

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 25° low before Election Day.

[Tom]

Up to 68° here. I bet money that this is the last "warm" of the season. The freeze on Wednesday killed off all the annuals in my yard. 

 

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 25° low before Election Day.

Just got back in from raking the leaves and the sound of leaf blowers are echoing the neighborhood today.  You can almost be raking in shorts and T-shirts today and get a tan doing it!  I still have about half a tree full of leaves, by next weekend I think they will be gone from the wind and cold coming.

 

12z Euro bolder and colder for next weekend from previous run.  Parks the Canadian HP right over the Lakes and temps take a dive at night.  I think winter is giving us a tease next weekend.

[Niko]

My Halloween forecast calls for AM Snow/Rain mix. Temps hovering around 41 for a high temp and lows in the mid 20's. Saturday, my temp does not get outta of the 30's for highs. WOW!!!! Thats some real chilly air coming, along with my first snowflakes of the Autumn season.

[Geos]

A serious warming spike in the Arctic taking place.

 

 

Asia snow cover continuing to spread out.

 

[NEJeremy]

Hi of 82 today with the dewpoint touching 60. Definitely an amazing weekend weatherwise! Last 3 days have been well into the 70s including the 82 today.

[CentralNebWeather]

One of the warmest Octobers that I have seen. Still running the air conditioning. This is crazy. The predicted cold October never came. Can winter please arrive,

[Maxim]

Some places should tag 80 around here tomorrow. 

[Geos]

Only 57° here today. Haven't ran the AC here in probably 6 weeks now!

[clintbeed1993]

One of the warmest Octobers that I have seen. Still running the air conditioning. This is crazy. The predicted cold October never came. Can winter please arrive,

 

 

I agree it has been unseasonably warm around here this month.  Just a fun fact, October of 1948 was also extremely warm with highs in the 70's and 80's for almost the entire month.  That winter ended up being one of the coldest and snowiest in Nebraska history.  Starting in mid November the mercury bottomed out and we saw snowstorm after snowstorm until April.  Parts of the state had over 100 inches for the season total.  Not saying we will get anything near that exciting this year, but it is interesting how the Indian Summer ended up transitioning to one of the harshest winters of all time.

[CentralNebWeather]

Actually have read a book on that winter and NET did a special on that winter. My late grandparents would tell srories of the never ending cold and massive snowdrifts. My mother told about weeks off of school in rural districts as roads were impassable. Could you be on to something? Oh to dream.

[clintbeed1993]

Actually have read a book on that winter and NET did a special on that winter. My late grandparents would tell srories of the never ending cold and massive snowdrifts. My mother told about weeks off of school in rural districts as roads were impassable. Could you be on to something? Oh to dream.

 

It's impossible to say how you get such an active winter.  Everything has to come together just right to get that much snow and cold.  It just doesn't happen that often for us in the plains.  My biggest concern for this winter will be the temperatures.  If the October pattern repeats like it does many years, we could be in for a ridge and warmth during a majority of the winter.  The good news is the lack of Northwest Flow and the waters starting to cool in the Pacific.  This could help the southern jet become more active this winter with the el nino expected to develop.  I could see precipitation being above average with snowfall around average and several ice storm type situations.

[clintbeed1993]

Nebraska is honestly one of the hardest states to forecast the winter for.  The NAO/AO/PNA pattern doesn't affect the Central United States nearly as much as it does the West and East.  The ENSO also has more of an impact on the Southern and Northern part of the country.  We are smack dab in the middle, so it is extremely difficult to determine how these teleconnections will affect us.

 

I have never heard any consensus on the right teleconnections for lots of snow in the central plains.  Anyone have thoughts on that?

[CentralNebWeather]

When we have had our largest storms here in Nebraska they begin in the NE Pacific or Gulf of Alaska and drop down through Oregon, to the Great Basin and form on the leeward of the Rocky Mountains in SE Colorado then move across Kansas to Kansas City.  Northwest flow is never good for us here in the Central Plains as it usually means dry, cold, and windy.

[NEJeremy]

It's "fun" to go back several weeks and see how accurate(or inaccurate) the models and member's predictions were for October to close out the month. Most of what I saw was the typhoon to hit Japan was going to create a huge trough over the central and eastern US(it only created one over the Great Lakes and northeast), there was talk of maybe snow in the middle of the month and continued cold and storminess to close out the month as well. Haven't really seen that too much either, except maybe for the Great Lakes and northeast at times. It's rained here 3x all month, and there have been a few cool days but nothing crazy.

We'll see what November holds. It's fun to read and hear what other people's opinions are about long range forecasting, but it's pretty clear everyone has a different opinion and probably half will be wrong and half will be right. I never hold my breath over any forecast more than about 4-5 days out

[Tom]

12z GFS back with some Halloween snows in Michigan...I'd watch out for that system potentially get deeper down the road.  Remember that eastward bias as well.  We saw it 2 weeks ago and correct farther west, just sayin'...

[Tom]

12z Euro pretty darn chilly for Halloween and Saturday...some hard freezes for IA/IL/WI/MI Friday night.

[Tom]

12z Euro ensembles deepening the trough this weekend and a bit farther west...showing you the comparisons from 2 days ago.

[Geos]

Some serious negative anamolies heading this way I would say! 75° for a high today. Breezy all day and still is at this hour.

 

Took this pic early this morning near the WI stateline.

 

 

 

[Tom]

00z GFS coming in colder for Halloween...showing upper 30's for highs in N IA/N IL/S WI/S MI and north.  Trough coming in ever so slightly farther west each run.

[Tom]

Latest 12z GFS showing possible flurries in the air on Halloween for N IL/S WI.  Wind off the lake may compromise getting down to freezing Friday night along the lakeshore.

[Hawkeye]

Friday morning looks pretty cold, with a temp near freezing and a strong wind.  There will be some cold trick or treaters.

[Tom]

Friday morning looks pretty cold, with a temp near freezing and a strong wind.  There will be some cold trick or treaters.

I think IA/WI is going to be one of the coldest spots Saturday morning with this trough.  Some mid 20's are not out of the question.  This is turning out to be one big punch of early season cold in our region.