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Fall-Winter 2014/15 Forecast Accuracy


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#1
iFred

Posted 22 October 2014 - 06:29 AM

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Hello All!
 

I am starting this topic to track the some of the more recent forecasts coming out for Winter in North America. Feel free to post anything from the CFS, EURO, or JMA. I want to revisit this thread later in the Winter to track accuracy for single events and seasonal trends.

 

To kick off the thread here are two frames from the latest CFS runs for the 30th of November and the 11th of December. Andrew originally posted these and noted that they are part of an overall trend to dig a cold trough in the west while keeping the east warm.

Attached Files


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#2
richard mann

Posted 22 October 2014 - 12:42 PM

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Generally related, ...

 

http://theweatherfor...winter-outlook/


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#3
Phil

Posted 22 October 2014 - 01:37 PM

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Frankly I don't know why these things are even posted (CFS in particular). The CFS was calling for a nationwide blowtorch this time last year because it cannot adequately handle tropical forcing progression within constraint.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#4
richard mann

Posted 22 October 2014 - 02:15 PM

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-
Also ("fun"), (and.) more specifically related, if a bit difficult to keep track of where considering the way that they're organized and updatedboth general timeframe wise and where considering just how far each projection looks ahead, and at what. -  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/  
 
….  Archived, where looking at the both 6-10 and 8-14 day ahead "Outlooks", with an additional 500mb pressure height graphic included with this idea looked at more specifically. 
 
products/predictions/610day/products/predictions/814day/ —>  http://www.cpc.ncep....e/srarc.ind.php
 
This following accessible, is a screenshot of what's posted, more archivally, for October 21st, for both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Not able to be linked to here more directly. .. Followed by a link more direct showing what's available for the 500mb level where and with clicking on what's shown more initially, for the 8-14 element.

archieve_display-t.jpg
(Click for fuller size image.)
 
http://www.cpc.ncep....141021.fcst.gif
 
Less fortunately, there's no archival element here with this resource where looking at the "One Month" look ahead. Perhaps these graphics can be tacked in here at regular intervals, maybe bi-monthly.
 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14 temp.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14 prcp.gif   (.. both, updating.)
 
But here's the fuller "Three Month" more over-all outlook, at this point for the whole of winter, together with that for November.  (.. if also updating.)
 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi season/13 seasonal outlooks/color/page2.gif

And so, here are each of those same images routed to here just above more static and current, that I've gathered and uploaded, and routed to here just below.
 
$$$$$$$141016 temp.v-14 nov
$$$$$$$141016 prcp.v-14 nov$i$141016 temp-prcp.v-14 nov-ndj


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#5
snow_wizard

Posted 22 October 2014 - 07:29 PM

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Frankly I don't know why these things are even posted (CFS in particular). The CFS was calling for a nationwide blowtorch this time last year because it cannot adequately handle tropical forcing progression within constraint.

 

The only way to use the CFS with any degree of confidence is if it shows the same thing in the same general time frame for many consecutive runs.  It can be pretty good in those cases.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#6
iFred

Posted 22 October 2014 - 07:48 PM

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I like these posted because they are fun to look at, they can give an ins guy into a trend 30 days out and this winter I want to track it.

#7
Phil

Posted 22 October 2014 - 08:18 PM

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The only way to use the CFS with any degree of confidence is if it shows the same thing in the same general time frame for many consecutive runs. It can be pretty good in those cases.


Even then it tends to bust badly due to feedback errors in the tropics/WPAC...2013-14 being a perfect example of that
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#8
richard mann

Posted 22 October 2014 - 08:23 PM

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.."Winter Cancel." ......  "Honk, Honk." !!  ... (?)
 
Noteworthy input more rhetorical, aside, .... 
 
And a bit more on point perhaps where regarding the main theme of this thread as pointed to by its main initiator above, ....

 

........ to track the some of the more recent (current. ?) forecasts coming out for Winter in North America ... to revisit this thread later in the Winter to track accuracy for single events and seasonal trends.

  
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long range/fxus05.html

http://www.cpc.noaa..../ocn.php?lead=1
http://www.cpc.ncep....ecca.php?lead=1
http://www.cpc.ncep..../smt.php?lead=1


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#9
richard mann

Posted 23 October 2014 - 11:33 PM

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Frankly I don't know why these things are even posted (CFS in particular). The CFS was calling for a nationwide blowtorch [at] this time last year ..... because it cannot adequately handle tropical forcing progression within constraint.

 

.. Who, or what, .. can in your view. ? 

 

i.e. either whether "within constraint" or otherwise. ?  


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#10
richard mann

Posted 23 October 2014 - 11:50 PM

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Accuweather. 

 

http://www.accuweath...recast/35422753

 

accWx_winter-14-15.jpg


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#11
kzimm63

Posted 24 October 2014 - 06:31 AM

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Winter 2014 - 2015 forecast from Meteorologist Steven DiMartino from nynjpaweather.com.   A long read but very interesting in how he backs up his forecast.   If you tire of reading all the details you can go to the summary / national forecast on page 69.     http://www.nynjpaweather.com/       Scroll down and click on link for Winter Forecast.

 

Here is the direct link to the forecast.  It doesn't appear to work on this site but if you cut and paste into your browser's URL bar it should work.

 

www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Winter-Forecast-for-2014151.pdf

 

http://www.nynjpawea...r-2014151.pdf  


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#12
richard mann

Posted 24 October 2014 - 12:27 PM

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.. Welcome to the site and forum "kzimm63". 
 
Regarding the main PDF that you've tried .. to route to here above, ...
 
…. It appears, that with having tacked it in more directly, you must have inadvertently … hit the space-bar, and so added a few additional "spaces" following the actual "address".  

http://www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Winter-Forecast-for-2014151.pdf%C2%A0%C2%A0    
http://www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Winter-Forecast-for-2014151.pdf

Here it is again, .. the same routing that you've suggested above with more going to the main site that you've linked to.
 
http://www.nynjpawea...for-2014151.pdf

.. Kind of comical, the larger text that the guy's used. Apparently working to try to reach as broad an audience with what he's deduced, as possible. Interesting and well-written, certainly.


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#13
iFred

Posted 26 October 2014 - 06:12 AM

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Coldest Pacific Northwest frame from the October 25th run of the CFS. Shows something special for the 28th of November.

Attached Files



#14
kzimm63

Posted 27 October 2014 - 05:57 AM

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.. Welcome to the site and forum "kzimm63". 
 
Regarding the main PDF that you've tried .. to route to here above, ...
 
…. It appears, that with having tacked it in more directly, you must have inadvertently … hit the space-bar, and so added a few additional "spaces" following the actual "address".  

http://www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Winter-Forecast-for-2014151.pdf%C2%A0%C2%A0    
http://www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Winter-Forecast-for-2014151.pdf

Here it is again, .. the same routing that you've suggested above with more going to the main site that you've linked to.
 
http://www.nynjpawea...for-2014151.pdf

.. Kind of comical, the larger text that the guy's used. Apparently working to try to reach as broad an audience with what he's deduced, as possible. Interesting and well-written, certainly.

Thank you!  I used to belong to the old WesternUSAWX.info forums.  That must have closed down awhile back.   I really enjoyed following Weather Phil and his coming mini ice age discussion on that forum.   Looks like NYNJPAweather.com changed the link for the winter forecast.  Here it is again with the new link.    https://nynjpaweathe...for-2014151.pdf



#15
richard mann

Posted 27 October 2014 - 10:53 AM

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Thank you!  I used to belong to the old WesternUSAWX.info forums.  That must have closed down awhile back.   I really enjoyed following Weather Phil and his coming mini ice age discussion on that forum.   Looks like NYNJPAweather.com changed the link for the winter forecast.  Here it is again with the new link.    https://nynjpaweathe...for-2014151.pdf

 

.. I see. And yes "iFred", having initiated this thread in fact, took over the site, and has done a great job at and with having reestablished it. 

 

Regarding "WeatherPhil's" ("Weather's", back at the older site.) "mini ice-age discussion", .. Also "comical" I'm sure. I wasn't there for the last year or so of the old site's having been still up and running. 


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#16
iFred

Posted 27 October 2014 - 02:17 PM

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Thank you!  I used to belong to the old WesternUSAWX.info forums.  That must have closed down awhile back.   I really enjoyed following Weather Phil and his coming mini ice age discussion on that forum.   Looks like NYNJPAweather.com changed the link for the winter forecast.  Here it is again with the new link.    https://nynjpaweathe...for-2014151.pdf

 

Welcome back to the community 'kzimm63'! I would encourage you to post observations in the regional forum best for you and to ask questions from everyone!



#17
iFred

Posted 03 November 2014 - 09:01 AM

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CFS for American Thanksgiving - November 27th

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#18
iFred

Posted 04 November 2014 - 07:48 AM

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Long range Winter forecast for the midwest

 

http://www.midwestwe...st-weather.html



#19
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 05 November 2014 - 10:37 PM

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Thank you!  I used to belong to the old WesternUSAWX.info forums.  That must have closed down awhile back.   I really enjoyed following Weather Phil and his coming mini ice age discussion on that forum.   Looks like NYNJPAweather.com changed the link for the winter forecast.  Here it is again with the new link.    https://nynjpaweathe...for-2014151.pdf

That is a very useful link, as it explains many of the oscillations and other drivers of the overall weather pattern.