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November 2014 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 24 October 2014 - 05:58 PM

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November is usually a volatile month and transitioning from meteorological Autumn to Winter can produce some interesting weather in the lower 48..  The CFS/CFSv2 have been hinting for quite some time now to open the month on a wintry note from the Plains to the Lakes.  Will the Plains/Upper Midwest be the first to have widespread snowfall this month???  How will the weather turn out for Discovery Channel's Skycraper walk in Chicago on November 2nd???  Is winter going to start off on a fast note this year or not???  Let's discuss.



#2
clintbeed1993

Posted 24 October 2014 - 06:08 PM

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I don't know for sure, but I think the plains should get something good.  We were completely screwed over last winter with bitter cold and hardly any snow.



#3
Geos

Posted 24 October 2014 - 06:31 PM

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Unsettled and below normal across a large part of the Midwest I think overall. 

I think will be tracking snow systems as early as the 5th this November!


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#4
Tom

Posted 24 October 2014 - 07:08 PM

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Unsettled and below normal across a large part of the Midwest I think overall. 

I think will be tracking snow systems as early as the 5th this November!

Ya, the first few days of November is the target period for our first snow storm.  I guess you could say the Plains deserve to be the first to get the white stuff after that abysmal year last season.  This month is looking to start on an active note with storminess in east Asia about every 4-6 days with shots of cold over the next 2 weeks.



#5
Tom

Posted 25 October 2014 - 06:33 AM

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Some interesting developments in the 00z Euro ensembles as we open November.  Stark differences from yesterdays 00z run to last nights 00z run.  I'm going to continue to stress the idea of the models bringing the trough to close into the west coast as has been the case over the last week or so.  Notice the deep blues showing up in the NE Pacific farther and farther off the coast and now the model is seeing deeper blues in the Plains/Upper Midwest and into C Canada.  BTW, check out the warming beginning in Alaska.  This will trigger a bigger shot of some arctic air with the potential wintry system in early November around the 4th-8th.



#6
Tom

Posted 25 October 2014 - 06:56 AM

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Euro continues to deepen the trough next weekend and getting colder.  Some very cold nights in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes next weekend.

 


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#7
Geos

Posted 25 October 2014 - 11:21 AM

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Quiet the cold pool next weekend.

 

GFS_3_2014102512_F156_TMPC_850_MB.png

 

GFS_3_2014102512_F168_TMPC_850_MB.png


  • tim the weatherman likes this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#8
Tom

Posted 25 October 2014 - 11:49 AM

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This month we are going to have to start paying more attention to the cold air winning the battles.  In October, the warmth prevailed in the Plains and parts of the Midwest, but as you can see now the pattern is beginning to go into over drive with the cold.  I noticed on the 12z Euro run in the extended it is picking up on that storm system around the 4th with another reinforcing shot of cold air building in the northern Plains.


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#9
Geos

Posted 25 October 2014 - 11:57 AM

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The cold shot and wind direction for next weekend looks prime for an early taste of LES showers. Possibly on the west side of Lake Mich.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#10
bud2380

Posted 25 October 2014 - 09:02 PM

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Latest gfs shows no signs of any major cold outbreaks or winter precip over the next 2 weeks.

#11
GDR

Posted 26 October 2014 - 12:49 AM

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Latest gfs shows no signs of any major cold outbreaks or winter precip over the next 2 weeks.



#12
GDR

Posted 26 October 2014 - 12:50 AM

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That's also what I'm starting to see also!

#13
Geos

Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:09 AM

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Latest gfs shows no signs of any major cold outbreaks or winter precip over the next 2 weeks.

 

Tell that to the EURO and the NWS offices around here. Rain and snow showers now in the forecast for the end of the week, lows in the 20s.

 

The trough is definitely there on the 12z GFS! Cold front drives into the deep South.

 

GFS_3_2014102612_F126_TMPC_850_MB.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#14
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:42 AM

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Meh Geos, maybe we'll see a flurry, but a brief cold snap with no meaningful precipitation doesn't excite me, but it's often par for the course in early November.

#15
Geos

Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:46 AM

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Meh Geos, maybe we'll see a flurry, but a brief cold snap with no meaningful precipitation doesn't excite me, but it's often par for the course in early November.

 

Looks like a prime set up for instability showers during the day.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#16
Hawkeye

Posted 26 October 2014 - 11:31 AM

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Today's model runs are farther east with next weekend's cold surge.  I would still get a solid freeze Saturday morning, but the core cold would hit farther east in the lakes.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#17
Geos

Posted 26 October 2014 - 04:26 PM

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Latest EURO's take on the trough placement.

 

ecmwfUS_850_temp_144.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#18
bud2380

Posted 26 October 2014 - 06:13 PM

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Gfs still not showing any cold outbreaks or significant winter weather in the Midwest. Could be a bit chilly this weekend but nothing we aren't accustom to in November. It's pretty rare to get significant snow in eastern Iowa in November. Cedar Rapids only averages 1.7" of snow in November.

#19
Geos

Posted 27 October 2014 - 04:26 AM

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EURO nudged the trough west on last night's run. Sub -10° area covers more real estate by the looks of it.

 

ecmwfUS_850_temp_120.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#20
Maxim

Posted 27 October 2014 - 05:24 AM

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Save those deep troughs for the winter when they're more interesting.

#21
Hawkeye

Posted 27 October 2014 - 05:43 AM

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Gfs still not showing any cold outbreaks or significant winter weather in the Midwest. Could be a bit chilly this weekend but nothing we aren't accustom to in November. It's pretty rare to get significant snow in eastern Iowa in November. Cedar Rapids only averages 1.7" of snow in November.

 

I just turned 40 and I can't remember any big snow events in November, ever.  You'd think it would happen once in a while, but it doesn't.  Our ceiling seems to be a stray inch or less during the first half of November(even that has only occurred once in the last seven years) and two or three inches late in the month(also not very often).  November is often a boring month in between seasons.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#22
Geos

Posted 27 October 2014 - 08:30 AM

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It doesn't snow more than a couple inches every November, but there has been some noteworthy snowfalls around here that I can remember back in the 90s. I don't remember them sticking around real long, but they can occur if the colder than normal air masses are moving about the continent early in the season.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#23
Tom

Posted 27 October 2014 - 08:43 AM

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A significant storm system is being forecasted to hit the Sea of Japan in the Nov 1-2 time frame with a significant cold shot thereafter.  This would suggest the Plains/Upper Midwest/Midwest to be in the area of concern around the 8th-12th for a potential wintry blast.  There could be another storm to hit that region in 4-6 days later.  The potential for a stormy and cold open to November is on the table.  Watch out for the sudden shortening of wavelengths and coupling of the jet stream this month as we head closer towards winter.


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#24
Tom

Posted 27 October 2014 - 08:54 AM

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Over the last 2 days I have watched the GFS in consecutive runs build a rapid snow cover in Canada as we roll on into November.  The reservoir of cold air will begin to build in this part of the northern hemisphere over the next few weeks.  The idea of an early season sever shot of arctic air is on the table towards mid month as the CFS was indicating a couple weeks back. 

 

 

On another note, SST's in the Pacific are moving towards the long range modeling, esp in the NE Pacific.  Check out the difference in just a matter of a few days and the cold pool of water building right where the JAMSTEC was forecasting the trough to build heading towards the winter months.  Having said that, you need to pay attention to the models in the longer range correct the troughs farther off the coast this month that should keep the ridge farther towards the coast/rockies and respond with troughs in the central/eastern CONUS.  Same concept has taken place 2 weeks ago when I saw the models pumping the east coast ridge and now we are seeing a major trough this weekend.  Coincidence???  No, just the seasonal change that is heading into over drive this month.


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#25
Tom

Posted 27 October 2014 - 09:17 AM

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The SSW event taking place is poking into the arctic regions, it will have implications in our weather down the road....bear in mind it's location is right where the coldest air is placed in the northern hemisphere.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep....emp30anim.shtml



#26
Tom

Posted 27 October 2014 - 09:30 AM

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The last couple runs the GFS is starting to show signs of that storm system correlating with the East Asian Theory.  What we have to watch is the heights rise in the NW Territories/Alaska just like they are doing for this weekend's storm system over the Lakes/East Coast.  Notice on the 12z run of the GFS, the 500mb hieghts rising near Alaska AND near Hudson Bay, this will in turn result in some cold air to filter into the Plains.  We'll see how this evolves. 


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#27
Tom

Posted 27 October 2014 - 02:52 PM

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Check out the arctic air building near the Yukon and NW Territories Day 10 on the GFS.  All it would take is to build that ridge to unleash the fridge and allow the jet stream to buckle into the Lower 48 later this month.  Long range GFS already showing the storm train correlating well with the East Asian Theory.


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#28
bud2380

Posted 27 October 2014 - 04:34 PM

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I just turned 40 and I can't remember any big snow events in November, ever.  You'd think it would happen once in a while, but it doesn't.  Our ceiling seems to be a stray inch or less during the first half of November(even that has only occurred once in the last seven years) and two or three inches late in the month(also not very often).  November is often a boring month in between seasons.

 

I'm 34 and I grew up in northeast Iowa, so it is usually a bit colder there than CR (not much, but a couple degrees on average).  I remember one large snowstorm in roughly 1992 or 1993 just before Thanksgiving.  We got out of school early the day before Thanksgiving due to snow.  As I recall I woke up on Thanksgiving morning with 8" of snow on the ground. 

 

Ok, so I looked up weather history for Dubuque and sure enough on 11/25/92 Dubuque reported 8" snow depth an 1.05" precip with a high of 37 and low of 30.

 

 

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA



#29
james1976

Posted 27 October 2014 - 04:40 PM

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Im a ways west of waterloo.....we get snow in November. Two years ago we had 4" on Nov 7th and it knocked out power cuz it was really wet and heavy. And Oct 22 last year we had an inch.

And I remember that pre-Thanksgiving storm very well in 92. We got dumped on. There have been a lot of November snow events around here.


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#30
bud2380

Posted 27 October 2014 - 05:15 PM

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According to this website, the snowiest November seen in Dubuque in the last 15 years only recorded 4.5".  So you could look at it one of 2 ways.  #1 we're overdue for a November snowstorm, or #2 the odds of having a large November snowstorm are small. 

 

http://weather-wareh...A_November.html



#31
bud2380

Posted 27 October 2014 - 05:16 PM

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James, Waterloo got 7.8" from that 1992 storm.

 

http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html


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#32
bud2380

Posted 27 October 2014 - 05:18 PM

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And some more info on that storm, sorry to hijack the thread a bit here.

 

1992: A snow storm struck most of Iowa (excepting northwestern areas) on the day before Thanksgiving with the heavy wet snow bringing down power lines and sticking to roads making travel very hazardous. The highest reported snowfall amounts were in a band extending from south central through northeastern Iowa including totals of 7.9 inches of Waterloo, 8.0 inches at Lorimor, Postville, and Winterset, 9.0 inches at Grundy Center and Tripoli, 9.3 inches at Des Moines, and 10.4 inches at Dubuque.



#33
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 October 2014 - 05:32 PM

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In central Nebraska we have had some large November snow storms. Thanksgiving weekend 1983. We didn't have school until the following Wednesday, i was a 9th grader. Thanksgiving weekend 1992, November 10, 2000, thanksgiving weekend 2005, no school until Wednesday, I remember because I am now a teacher. Wow more than people would expect.

#34
Money

Posted 27 October 2014 - 05:37 PM

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So, what is ENSO telling us for this winter? Currently, the waters in the equatorial Pacific are slightly warmer than normal, but not quite warm enough for ENSO to be considered in the El Niño phase. However, through the winter, the water temperatures are forecast to warm, initiating a weak El Niño event. What does that mean for Wisconsin? In the past, El Niño events have been associated with above normal winter temperatures in Southern Wisconsin, especially in the case of moderate to strong events. However, as you can see in the graphs below, when there is a weak El Niño, there has been about the same number of cool and warm winters. So based on this information, there is no clear signal showing that this winter will be cold or warm; in other words, there are equal chances of above or below average temperatures when a weak El Niño event occurs.

 

http://www.crh.noaa....104882&source=0



#35
Geos

Posted 27 October 2014 - 06:48 PM

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The SSW event taking place is poking into the arctic regions, it will have implications in our weather down the road....bear in mind it's location is right where the coldest air is placed in the northern hemisphere.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep....emp30anim.shtml

 

Full blown SSW taking place. It's off to a fast start this winter, unlike a couple years ago.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#36
Tom

Posted 27 October 2014 - 09:02 PM

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I wanted to pay attention to the middle of next week and compare the last 3 days run of the GFS ensembles.  It's been happening more often than not over the past 2-3 weeks in the East/GL/Midwest where the model sees a big time ridge, then slowly start erasing it.  Check out the last 3 days consecutively for 18z on the 8th of this month.  Notice on the 18z 25th run, a big time ridge over the central/eastern CONUS, on 18z 26th run a little bit less impressive ridge, on the 18z 27th run...ridge disappearing and blocking starting to show up over the top near Alaska and over the pole.  With a potential storm system to develop somewhere in the central CONUS towards the beginning of next week, we'll have to see how this storm (if it does evolve) develop.  It could have a chance to tug down some colder air with it down the road and create a bigger trough than what the models are showing now.



#37
james1976

Posted 28 October 2014 - 08:51 AM

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GFS is starting to get colder in long range. Lets see how future runs go.



#38
Tom

Posted 28 October 2014 - 09:07 AM

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12z GFS starting to turn the corner in the long range...those building heights in the arctic regions that I have been pointing out could lead to tapping some serious early season arctic air that will begin to build up near the Yukon/NW territories..  The system showing up around the 4th of November near Lake Winnipeg may be the one that tugs down this colder air down the road.  Utilizing the East Asian Theory and the system that traversed north of Japan a couple days ago may be lining up pretty nice with this system in southern Canada mid next week.


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#39
Tom

Posted 28 October 2014 - 10:41 AM

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Differences showing up rather quickly for later next week from yesterday's 12z GFS ensembles to todays 12z ensembles...not much of a ridge anymore on 12z the 8th, and notice by Day 12 there is a Bearing Sea trough present which pumps the NE Pacific Ridge.  BTW, the Bearing Sea trough gets set up by Day 7-16 and doesn't seem to leave and stays in tack.



#40
Tom

Posted 28 October 2014 - 11:08 AM

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Both 12z GFS and 12z Euro not showing much of a warm up in the 6-10 Day range....maybe in the Plains, but Midwest/Lakes/East stay below normal.  In fact, 12z Euro trying to say there will be an Alberta Clipper that lays down some snow nearby....we'll see if this pans out.


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#41
Tom

Posted 28 October 2014 - 08:15 PM

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Take a look at how much real estate will be sub freezing waking up on Nov 1st!  When this pattern repeats according to the LRC, it has the look of a PV invasion.  Could be sometime in late December, during Christmas week or around NYE.



#42
Tom

Posted 29 October 2014 - 07:40 AM

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Concerns are growing for what could be the first real winter like period for the central/eastern CONUS sometime during the Day 10-15 period.  The previous 12z and 00z runs on the Euro ensembles and Control runs (and some GFS ensembles) are indicating a disruption in the storminess in the NE Pacific and the building of the infamous "west coast ridge".  The last few GFS operational runs I believe are hinting at it in the longer range but shoving the energy to fast off to the east.  You can see the Euro ensembles maps below that the model for the first time in WEEKS is no longer keeping troughiness on the west coast which signals to me that many members are beginning to see a change in the pattern.  A cold and active pattern is also setting up near Japan as well over the next 1-2 weeks.



#43
Tom

Posted 29 October 2014 - 08:11 AM

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The new JMA weeklies come in later tonight and I'm curious to see if the model will pump the west coast ridge Week 2 & 3.  The last couple weeks in has been drastically changing its longer range pattern from a "ridge", to neutral and I'm thinking now it will show a trough this time around.



#44
Tom

Posted 29 October 2014 - 08:47 AM

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A couple days ago I posted the GFS 500mb maps and my concerns of a deeper trough to develop mid/late next week.  The 12z GFS is now sniffing it out.  I'll post the 500mb maps and indicate why this deep trough and cold will prevail.  Notice the "red" colors developing over the top near Alaska, the Pole and off the west coast.  This is why I didn't think that we were going to enter a period of ridging when I began to see those heights rise in the arctic regions.  The models are now also starting to keep the troughs farther and farther off the west coast which will produce ridging on the west coast and a central/eastern CONUS trough.  Some thought I was feeding ppl with wish casting and yatta yatta yatta, but as long as I see the pattern and where it will go, I'll still post it.

 

Down the road even farther, the seasonal transition of the jet stream will pull the trough even farther west and in return you will see come mid November is a NW NAMER ridge to develop that the longer range seasonal models have been pointing to and a fast start to winter in the lower 48.



#45
james1976

Posted 29 October 2014 - 08:54 AM

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GFS showing a system mid next week. Would be great if it pulled in some colder air. Something to watch. GFS overall looking fairly active.


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#46
Tom

Posted 29 October 2014 - 10:14 AM

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Quite the change in the 12z GFS ensembles from yesterdays 12z run.  The new run has yet ANOTHER major trough developing next week where the models had a blow torch ridge!  Go figure why I don't buy into the CPC outlooks in the longer range.  Anyway, notice the west coast ridge, blocking over the top and somewhat of an east coast ridge.  Now, I think this trough may correct itself more in the central states and give the Plains/Midwest/GL some action.  Having said that, it would correlate well with the Japan storm that hit farther west.


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#47
Tom

Posted 29 October 2014 - 01:33 PM

Tom

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12z Euro ensembles continue to deliver....will show you the same time 12z yesterday, to today's run....better result...ensembles are seeing another potential major shot of some cold and storminess in the central/eastern CONUS sometime by next weekend.  The ensembles and control are also seeing the system mid week next week.  Euro Control is going gang busters with the west coast ridge in its Day 10-15 mean 500mb.



#48
Tom

Posted 29 October 2014 - 04:31 PM

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Ominous looking blocking showing up on the 18z GFS ensembles...Bearing Sea trough pumps the Alaskan ridge and hooks over the top into the Pole.  Whenever you get that type of blocking to set up it taps into pure arctic air and that is when you see some fun and games in the lower 48.  I wouldn't necessarily pay attention to the ridge its showing currently in the central/east bc the blocking in the arctic would not suggest that kind of ridge.  This is a classic example of what we saw last year.  Down the road, this ridge would disappear as it reacts to the blocking.



#49
Tom

Posted 29 October 2014 - 04:39 PM

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Is it a coincidence that we are now seeing the models showing more blocking Week 1-2?  Are they reacting to the SSW event taking place?  I believe so and expected it to show up sooner or later.


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#50
Geos

Posted 29 October 2014 - 05:40 PM

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Ending on November 1st, the NAM is showing the LES/R core near the stateline of IL and IN. Will be interesting if it drifts any farther west.

 

NAM_221_2014102912_F84_PCPIN_84_HR.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history