November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Take a look at how much real estate will be sub freezing waking up on Nov 1st!  When this pattern repeats according to the LRC, it has the look of a PV invasion.  Could be sometime in late December, during Christmas week or around NYE.

[Tom]

Concerns are growing for what could be the first real winter like period for the central/eastern CONUS sometime during the Day 10-15 period.  The previous 12z and 00z runs on the Euro ensembles and Control runs (and some GFS ensembles) are indicating a disruption in the storminess in the NE Pacific and the building of the infamous "west coast ridge".  The last few GFS operational runs I believe are hinting at it in the longer range but shoving the energy to fast off to the east.  You can see the Euro ensembles maps below that the model for the first time in WEEKS is no longer keeping troughiness on the west coast which signals to me that many members are beginning to see a change in the pattern.  A cold and active pattern is also setting up near Japan as well over the next 1-2 weeks.

[Tom]

The new JMA weeklies come in later tonight and I'm curious to see if the model will pump the west coast ridge Week 2 & 3.  The last couple weeks in has been drastically changing its longer range pattern from a "ridge", to neutral and I'm thinking now it will show a trough this time around.

[Tom]

A couple days ago I posted the GFS 500mb maps and my concerns of a deeper trough to develop mid/late next week.  The 12z GFS is now sniffing it out.  I'll post the 500mb maps and indicate why this deep trough and cold will prevail.  Notice the "red" colors developing over the top near Alaska, the Pole and off the west coast.  This is why I didn't think that we were going to enter a period of ridging when I began to see those heights rise in the arctic regions.  The models are now also starting to keep the troughs farther and farther off the west coast which will produce ridging on the west coast and a central/eastern CONUS trough.  Some thought I was feeding ppl with wish casting and yatta yatta yatta, but as long as I see the pattern and where it will go, I'll still post it.

 

Down the road even farther, the seasonal transition of the jet stream will pull the trough even farther west and in return you will see come mid November is a NW NAMER ridge to develop that the longer range seasonal models have been pointing to and a fast start to winter in the lower 48.

[james1976]

GFS showing a system mid next week. Would be great if it pulled in some colder air. Something to watch. GFS overall looking fairly active.

[Tom]

Quite the change in the 12z GFS ensembles from yesterdays 12z run.  The new run has yet ANOTHER major trough developing next week where the models had a blow torch ridge!  Go figure why I don't buy into the CPC outlooks in the longer range.  Anyway, notice the west coast ridge, blocking over the top and somewhat of an east coast ridge.  Now, I think this trough may correct itself more in the central states and give the Plains/Midwest/GL some action.  Having said that, it would correlate well with the Japan storm that hit farther west.

[Tom]

12z Euro ensembles continue to deliver....will show you the same time 12z yesterday, to today's run....better result...ensembles are seeing another potential major shot of some cold and storminess in the central/eastern CONUS sometime by next weekend.  The ensembles and control are also seeing the system mid week next week.  Euro Control is going gang busters with the west coast ridge in its Day 10-15 mean 500mb.

[Tom]

Ominous looking blocking showing up on the 18z GFS ensembles...Bearing Sea trough pumps the Alaskan ridge and hooks over the top into the Pole.  Whenever you get that type of blocking to set up it taps into pure arctic air and that is when you see some fun and games in the lower 48.  I wouldn't necessarily pay attention to the ridge its showing currently in the central/east bc the blocking in the arctic would not suggest that kind of ridge.  This is a classic example of what we saw last year.  Down the road, this ridge would disappear as it reacts to the blocking.

[Tom]

Is it a coincidence that we are now seeing the models showing more blocking Week 1-2?  Are they reacting to the SSW event taking place?  I believe so and expected it to show up sooner or later.

[Geos]

Ending on November 1st, the NAM is showing the LES/R core near the stateline of IL and IN. Will be interesting if it drifts any farther west.

 

[Geos]

Ending on November 1st, the NAM is showing the LES/R core near the stateline of IL and IN. Will be interesting if it drifts any farther west.

 

[Scott26]

Ending on November 1st, the NAM is showing the LES/R core near the stateline of IL and IN. Will be interesting if it drifts any farther west.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/10/29/12/NAM_221_2014102912_F84_PCPIN_84_HR.png

The parameters are all in place for a significant Lake Effect precipitation event. Models showing over 1000 J/kg of Lake-induced CAPE. Plus with Lake surface temperatures to temps at 850 mb 18-19 degree celsius differential. 06Z NAM and 12Z NAM actually had the band hitting the western lake michigan shore with hours of North/Northeasterly winds. NAM was the only model showing this solution with the Euro/GFS keeping it a NW Indiana show. The question is whether evaporative cooling can cool the column efficiently for a quick turnover to snow. If this happens it wouldn't be surprised if somebody in NW Indiana has shoveable snow to deal with. Plus with the convective elements in play a quicker switchover may be more likely. Whether this effects the NE IL shore seems a lot more uncertain. I'm hoping to see some flakes on Friday, but if we end up getting effected by a lake effect snow band it will be dark already. It would be humorous to see people trick or treating with snow falling haha.

[clintbeed1993]

Jeese, you guys in the lakes are already tracking possible snow for your area.  Are us poor souls in the Plains ever gunna see a storm?  After last winter I'm about ready to die of snow depredation.

[Tom]

Ending on November 1st, the NAM is showing the LES/R core near the stateline of IL and IN. Will be interesting if it drifts any farther west.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/10/29/12/NAM_221_2014102912_F84_PCPIN_84_HR.png

This lake plume could be rather vigorous from all indications!  I'd expect to see some convective bands showing up.  I'd be flabbergasted if we saw accumulations of snow from Lake Effect on Friday night. 

[Geos]

40% chance of snow here on Friday night, so it'll be interesting to see how far west the plume; if it develops, can drift.

[james1976]

LOL
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[tim the weatherman]

LOL

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

they are really stupid at the cpc and lol on them from making this forecast because the way tom and all of you and my self has been saying that heading into november will be on the chilly and cold month and november can be a transition month from warm to cold towards thansgiving.

[james1976]

With all the long range models I have seen and the stuff that Tom has posted I dont see any sign of the entire country (especially the midwest) being above normal. Where do they get this stuff from? If anyone is "wishcasting" it seems to be the CPC. A few days or a week ago we had some wamer model runs but that has disappeared from what I can see anyway.

[Tom]

With all the long range models I have seen and the stuff that Tom has posted I dont see any sign of the entire country (especially the midwest) being above normal. Where do they get this stuff from? If anyone is "wishcasting" it seems to be the CPC. A few days or a week ago we had some wamer model runs but that has disappeared from what I can see anyway.

I understand your frustrations James.  Just about a week ago the CPC had a blow torch for the Midwest/Lakes/East and that would place today through Nov 4th in that time frame.  Is there a blow torch???  Lol, boy I tell ya, its funny too look at these maps once in a while.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I don't get it either, I looked at today's 12z GFS Ensembles, and almost all of them featured at least a minor trough sweeping through from the 168-240 HR period. Are most or all of these ensemble runs going to be dead wrong? I highly doubt it.

[bud2380]

The Cpc map appears to be an average daily temp map, meaning factoring in both high and low temps. Based on the models there are no significant cold outbreaks in the offing. I admit I'm surprised to see this much of the country with good chances of above average, but I certainly wouldn't predict below normal based on the models. Below is the Canadian model. Almost the entire country is above freezing. Now we all know the models are frequently wrong as are these 6-10 day forecasts so we shall see.

[Jaycee]

Not sure how I'm liking the trends here. Warm or cold, I just want to see precipitation. Starting to dry out over here again. Hopefully things ramp up in November, as October has easily been our most boring month since this past winter.

[CentralNebWeather]

I am with you. People still watering their yards here. No rain in weeks. Did drop to 27 degrees Wednesday morning. I really don't see any precipitation in the next 2 weeks. Boy I hope I am wrong. NWS Hastings just says dry and seasonable for the foreseeable future.

[Tom]

JB commented on twitter regarding the SSW event taking place.  Not only do "great minds think alike", but he to believes that winter will start quicker than usual this year. 

[Tom]

We'll need to watch those systems showing up towards the mid/end of next week and see if they dig farther south and build a deeper trough.  The lead system up in S Ontario on the 6th will be kick starter and if it can dive farther south, the one behind will ride the trailing cold front and possibly produce the first Upper Midwest/Lakes Clipper type snowfall.  Pretty impressive HP to the north of the system may "push" it farther south.  Gotta watch out for the cold to start pushing as was the case last year with many systems.

[Money]

12z GFS is MUCH colder in the long range. Sub 1040 H moves in towards the end of the run.

[bud2380]

Both the GFS (top) and Canadian (bottom) have a potent clipper like system hitting the upper midwest late next week.  One to keep an eye on.  Could be some good snow for the northern states. 

 

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

 

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

[Money]

GGEM precip types:

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/PT_PN_204_0000.gif

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/PT_PN_216_0000.gif

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Very typical fare for the first week or two of November it sounds like, mostly a cold, raw rain here with snow up north.

[Tom]

What I'm about to post is a text book example of why I was concerned (or should I say EXCITED) that in November winter would get off to a fast start.  Over the past several weeks I have shown the GFS/EURO "errors" in the longer range and the corrections that I believed would happen BEFORE they happened, not after the fact, but before so everyone can see what I was looking at.  Now, having said that, I'll post todays 12z run of the Euro ensembles and take a look at what the model is starting to show by next weekend.  Remember those GFS maps I posted regarding the 500mb hieghts rising near the arctic????  Well, well, well....look at what is going on now!  The Euro ensemble are pointing to a major shot of some real arctic air for a large part of the county which may lead to some early season sticking snows! 

 

Remember what I said, Strat Warming and Blocking will get things rocking!  Notice how warm the arctic regions are now getting and the CFSv2 is starting to hone in on it as well.  What may happen by Week 2-3 is for this pattern to stick and hold and winter will be into overdrive by then.

 

 

So if this does in fact happen, what do those have to say that thought this wouldn't happen as they stay silent behind the scenes (you know who you are)?  I'm not a wish caster, I make educated, analytical predictions that seem to be working out.  Come on, would ya give a man a break???  Sorry, just had to put my 2 cents worth on the table.  Not intended to be rude.

 

Now, besides all that...this is all starting to get a bit exciting.  Let's see what happens.  Lets go baby!  Let it snow already!

 

 

 

[Tom]

D**n, the last 2 runs of the GFS loading the Siberian Express into Canada directly across the Pole!  Wow, this pattern may be going to the extreme that it could certainly end up going to.  Pretty mind boggling to see -30C temps in central Canada in early November.  Watch for the cold to "push" down the road.

[Tom]

The new JMA weeklies for week #2 concurring with the other models.  Notice the Bearing Sea trough, GOA ridge, a small hint of blocking over the Pole and the down stream trough in the central CONUS.  A little to far west with the trough though.

[Tom]

Kinda far down the road, but GFS ensembles still showing west coast ridge, arctic blocking developing Day 8 BUT now may be hinting at some Greenland Blocking later on.  Classic horseshoe blocking around the Lower 48...this would flood the U.S. with serious cold.  Just wanted to show you this.  This would be sometime mid November.

[james1976]

Im ready for snow I'm liking the maps Tom!

[Geos]

Kinda far down the road, but GFS ensembles still showing west coast ridge, arctic blocking developing Day 8 BUT now may be hinting at some Greenland Blocking later on.  Classic horseshoe blocking around the Lower 48...this would flood the U.S. with serious cold.  Just wanted to show you this.  This would be sometime mid November.

 

Yeah that's pretty serious looking for a cold eastern 1/2 of the country!

Ridge hooked right over the North Pole.

---

 

Meanwhile for the short terms. 4km NAM targeting further west for the greatest LES/R accumulations.

 

 

[Tom]

00z Euro developing an early season sharp temperature boundary mid next week...it is also showing signs of a Colorado/Plains SLP to develop next Friday that swings into the GL and produces a pretty strong system.  Phasing/timing still a long ways away, towards the end of this run it unloads another arctic HP into the center of the nation.

 

 

I wasn't lying to you guys about where this pattern could go.  I'm beginning to think winter is around the corner.  The major trough that showed up on yesterday's 12z run is correcting farther west and down into the center of the nation and doesn't leave over the next 2 weeks!  This is a powerful signal to me that the cold the GFS is billowing up in the longer range may actually "push" and unload into the lower 48!  Winter is around the corner ladies and gents!  Who's as pumped as me right now????

 

 

Just take a gander at the classic NW NAMER ridge Day 15 on the ensembles....Does that look familiar???  Yes!  Both the EURO/JMA all have a monster block developing over the arctic for the winter.  You couldn't of painted it better than this.  I think this is a clear sign that nature wants to go into over drive in November and the pattern may begin to lock and load this month earlier than ever....in my lifetime that is.

[Tom]

Model ensembles continue to deliver...GFS agreeing with Euro and starting to signal a severe shot of cold Week 1-2.  The cold may engulf the entire lower 48, reminiscent to the memorable winter of 1977-78 that started off early and didn't end till early Spring.  Oh, by the way, I read a nice article today on Wx Bell and the SST's setting up in the central Pacific/northern Pacific are eerily similar to that winter. 

[East Dubzz]

Getting closer to my favorite time of year!

[NEJeremy]

Am I missing something here? I see the 540 line is still north of the Canadian border on these maps. How cold is the airmass then?

 

 

Model ensembles continue to deliver...GFS agreeing with Euro and starting to signal a severe shot of cold Week 1-2.  The cold may engulf the entire lower 48, reminiscent to the memorable winter of 1977-78 that started off early and didn't end till early Spring.  Oh, by the way, I read a nice article today on Wx Bell and the SST's setting up in the central Pacific/northern Pacific are eerily similar to that winter. 

[Money]

12z GFS much colder in the mid-range.