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November 2014 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Am I missing something here? I see the 540 line is still north of the Canadian border on these maps. How cold is the airmass then?

Remember, these are ensembles...I wouldn't pay attention to the 540 line right now.  Just look at the troughs position and the ridge's where they are present...cold signals.

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Am I missing something here? I see the 540 line is still north of the Canadian border on these maps. How cold is the airmass then?

 

 

Remember, these are ensembles...I wouldn't pay attention to the 540 line right now.  Just look at the troughs position and the ridge's where they are present...cold signals.

 

That's 540mb at 500hPa though. Totally different than the freezing line correlated with 850 mb/5000ft. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That's 540mb at 500hPa though. Totally different than the freezing line correlated with 850 mb/5000ft. 

Right, the 540 line is always correlated with 500hPa, and is usually a good marker of the surface freezing line. I know it isn't exact, but my concern was the fact that it showed the line way up in Canada. It would be hard to say there's is going to be extreme cold even by November standards if the 540 line is still north of the international border. But according to Tom, there shouldn't be any concern with the temps on these maps

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Right, the 540 line is always correlated with 500hPa, and is usually a good marker of the surface freezing line. I know it isn't exact, but my concern was the fact that it showed the line way up in Canada. It would be hard to say there's is going to be extreme cold even by November standards if the 540 line is still north of the international border. But according to Tom, there shouldn't be any concern with the temps on these maps

Don't pay attention to the temps on these ensemble maps I post from the GFS.  However, when you see the Euro ensemble maps you can see the 850's getting colder and deeper, meaning, there is more consistency amongst the 52 members.

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00z Euro bringing a weak Clipper system through N MN/N WI and laying down some light snow next Wednesday.  Trending colder for the Lakes late next week.  Cold keeps pushing, not surprising given the magnitude of arctic air building in Canada next week.

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Many early season snow records are begin broken in the southern states today.  This early season arctic attack is doing wonders in South Carolina/West Virginia/TN.  More than likely a sign of things to come down there and overall for this winter season.

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12z GFS showing high temps in the lakes sub freezing next Sunday...someone in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes is going to get their first sticking snows of the season in the next 1-2 weeks.  Some real arctic chill is in the works.  GFS also showing more blocking that'll get things going early this season.  Teleconnections support this idea.

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Some fun stuff going on in the Smokies. Winter Storm Warnings
ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT UP TO 4 INCHES MORE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THIS WILL BRING
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 6 TO 12 INCHES IN MANY AREAS...WITH
12 TO 16 INCH TOTALS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES.

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Saw my first flakes yesterday on Halloween evening. What a beautiful scene. It did not stick on the ground, but it was fun watching it fall from the sky for the first time this season. Could this be a sign of a harsh winter on the way???!!!!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z Euro ensembles continue to show a wild November through mid month and beyond.  The model run after run develops the infamous NW NAMER ridge we saw all to often last year.  This should unload the coldest air of the season and certainly looks like it could produce record cold and possibly some decent snows anywhere in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  I think this pattern locks and loads Week 2 from all indications.  I'd love to see a snow cover by Thanksgiving, wouldn't you???

 

Edit: 12z Euro and GFS creeping that snow cover farther south as we head into Week #2.  This is an amazing pattern that is project to set up within the next 7 days or so.

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Saw my first flakes yesterday on Halloween evening. What a beautiful scene. It did not stick on the ground, but it was fun watching it fall from the sky for the first time this season. Could this be a sign of a harsh winter on the way???!!!!!

From what I'm seeing, it certainly does and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a decent snow cover in our region be end of November.  That's if we don't see a storm that swings west of the Lakes and pumps the ridge out ahead of it.  However, the CFSv2 is showing a persistent -AO/-NAO throughout the entire month so it should help us from that happening.

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Some fun stuff going on in the Smokies. Winter Storm Warnings

ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES

ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT UP TO 4 INCHES MORE AT THE HIGHER

ELEVATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THIS WILL BRING

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 6 TO 12 INCHES IN MANY AREAS...WITH

12 TO 16 INCH TOTALS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES.

 

That's really impressive for the Smokies in the winter, let alone now!

Winter of 2009-2010 was rough there. I hiked in snow over a foot deep above 3500 feet.

 

Edit"

 

Impressive totals! WOW

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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From what I'm seeing, it certainly does and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a decent snow cover in our region be end of November.  That's if we don't see a storm that swings west of the Lakes and pumps the ridge out ahead of it.  However, the CFSv2 is showing a persistent -AO/-NAO throughout the entire month so it should help us from that happening.

 

I see the snow cover continuing above normal as well. 

 

Asian snow cover as of today.

 

 

Just watched the Saturday summary from Joe Bastardi and he definitely pointed out how bad the models have been in trying to predict temperature patterns. Especially in the eastern half of the continent. Blow torch across the entire country for this month, lol - I don't think so!

 

I think the writing is already on the wall about where we're heading for this winter!

...I have to get my subscription back! haha

 

---

 

High today of only 41°. Looks to be heading for the 20s tonight.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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don't foreget to set clocks back an hour tonight because daylight savings time ends.

Thanks tim...almost forgot.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Dissapointment looking more and more likely for our area it's looking like, hence my lack of interest in this forum and weather in general lately. The only "trend" I'm noticing, is that Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley are receiving the bulk of the cold and precip, while we get the crazy temperature swings and fizzled precip. Was incredibly cold and windy here last night. All to similar to how last year began.

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Indeed, showing a decent Clipper digging farther south next week Thursday that may drop some snows in S Wisco.  Next weekend looks very chilly, high temps in the upper 30's mainly before the real chill hits the following week.  Winter is around the corner for sure.

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Indeed, showing a decent Clipper digging farther south next week Thursday that may drop some snows in S Wisco.  Next weekend looks very chilly, high temps in the upper 30's mainly before the real chill hits the following week.  Winter is around the corner for sure.

 

Man that would be such a close miss.  I like the pattern in the next ten days as it appears on the Euro and the GFS Ensembles, so let's hope it keeps trending that way, a lot of disturbances with at least the potential of mixing with or changing over to snow for a time.

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Obviously way out in lala land but look at this sucker. Actually starts in the plains  and strengthens as it heads east-northeast. GFS really starting to grab onto a cold-active pattern.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_336_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Astounding cold showing up on the Euro for Week 1-2 and beyond.  For an ensemble run to show these kind of deviations from normal this far out is incredible.  My concern, as always, was the SSW event to kick start this winter into overdrive this month.  The response in the atmosphere will be the development of arctic blocking which is now becoming very evident within the next few days.  500mb heights will begin to rise in the arctic regions and the AO will begin to tank as I have expected it to.  Remember the CPC showing a sky rocketing AO just about a week ago???  Well, it is no longer the case.  It's fascinating for me to see all this come together and to see the key ingredients weeks or days before in the modeling prove to be accurate down the road.  Exciting times ahead and it will be awesome to see some sticking snows finally!

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