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Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

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#1
Tom

Posted 05 November 2014 - 10:39 AM

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It appears that Ol' Man Winter is coming out of the gates early this year and the regions first chance of seeing accumulating snow is on the table.  There still is alot of uncertainty if the storm heading out of the Rockies will phase and spin up into a formidable storm or rather produce post frontal snows behind a frigid early season arctic blast.  Let's discuss.

 

 



#2
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 10:44 AM

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First of hopefully many storm threats to track.

 

12z Friday runs we should have some sort of idea where this is gonna go. 



#3
Snowshoe

Posted 05 November 2014 - 10:53 AM

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It appears that Ol' Man Winter is coming out of the gates early this year and the regions first chance of seeing accumulating snow is on the table.  There still is alot of uncertainty if the storm heading out of the Rockies will phase and spin up into a formidable storm or rather produce post frontal snows behind a frigid early season arctic blast.  Let's discuss.

 

I would love to lock in this map!


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#4
Hawkeye

Posted 05 November 2014 - 11:52 AM

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This morning's Euro isn't quite as bad with the cold, and has no snow for Iowa.  This run swings a little more troughiness into the Gulf of Alaska, which doesn't allow the west coast ridge to bump northward as much, which then leads to less digging of our cold trough.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#5
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 November 2014 - 01:37 PM

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From NWS Hastings this AM- 

 

THE MILD EARLY NOVEMBER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ABRUPTLY CHANGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POLAR LOW MIGRATES SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SETTLING IN MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE FRIGID AIR WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY LIKELY TO STRUGGLE IN THE 30S...A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM. A STRONG 1040MB
SFC HIGH IS POISED TO BUILD SOUTH FM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD NOVEMBER NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
ANOTHER FRIGID DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT WX CONDITIONS DRY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN WHICH
WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL
MONITOR. AS IT IS...ENJOY THE MILD WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS
CHANGES ARE HEADED OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK BY VETERANS DAY

 

Here comes the cold let the fun again.  Hopefully we get at least a little snow.


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#6
Tom

Posted 05 November 2014 - 02:29 PM

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18z GFS non existent with any storm potential...some snow in Wisco and E NE but that's about it for this run...



#7
james1976

Posted 05 November 2014 - 07:01 PM

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Funny how dead it gets in here when models runs suck.


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#8
james1976

Posted 05 November 2014 - 07:06 PM

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La Crosse AFD with an interesting tidbit regarding temps next week:
THE GFS
HAS ITS COLDEST AIR BETWEEN -10 AND -14C ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE RETURN FREQUENCY SHOWS THIS IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED
SINCE 1985 FOR THAT DAY.


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#9
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 07:17 PM

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Parallel GFS (18z) total snowfall:

 

gfsp_asnow_us_27.png



#10
Geos

Posted 05 November 2014 - 07:37 PM

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Parallel GFS (18z) total snowfall:

 

gfsp_asnow_us_27.png

 

Sweet!

 

La Crosse AFD with an interesting tidbit regarding temps next week:
THE GFS
HAS ITS COLDEST AIR BETWEEN -10 AND -14C ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE RETURN FREQUENCY SHOWS THIS IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED
SINCE 1985 FOR THAT DAY.

 

I take it that's at the 850mb level?

 

Local forecasters calling for highs in the mid 30s Monday and Tuesday around here.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#11
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 05 November 2014 - 07:47 PM

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Parallel GFS (18z) total snowfall:

 

gfsp_asnow_us_27.png

 

I hope these aren't weenie maps like Weatherbell's from last year?  Seems awfully generous on the southern extent of snows.



#12
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 07:56 PM

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Don't think they are, and that's total snowfall from earlier until hr 150. The parallel had a storm farther south than the op gfs. 



#13
james1976

Posted 05 November 2014 - 07:57 PM

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Yeah GEOS those are 850s.



#14
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:00 PM

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GFS coming in more interesting...



#15
Geos

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:00 PM

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I hope these aren't weenie maps like Weatherbell's from last year?  Seems awfully generous on the southern extent of snows.

 

Hey if South Carolina can get snow in November, we can get snow next week! haha

 

Money is right - Those are brand new maps this year.

 

There's always the possibility in seeing a surprise dusting to a couple inches with the Arctic front. I know that happens usually once every winter.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#16
Tom

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:03 PM

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Hey if South Carolina can get snow in November, we can get snow next week! haha

 

Money is right - Those are brand new maps this year.

 

There's always the possibility in seeing a surprise dusting to a couple inches with the Arctic front. I know that happens usually once every winter.

Especially along a tight temp boundary and baroclinic zone...we may see some surprise even 48 hours out.  Saw this plenty of times last year.



#17
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:06 PM

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Won't show a big storm, but snow for most of IA/WI/N. IL at least on this run.



#18
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:09 PM

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Looks like 3-5 in the biggest areas in S. WI.

 

1-3 in NW IL, W. WI and MN.



#19
Tom

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:11 PM

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00z GFS....baby steps



#20
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:14 PM

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Parallel GFS

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png



#21
Tom

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:19 PM

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Parallel GFS

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

This storm has a lot of potential, just need it to dig some more...hopefully when more data comes into the models over the next day or so we can start seeing something better.



#22
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:21 PM

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gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png



#23
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:23 PM

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Is the parallel GFS new this year? Never knew they had this.



#24
Geos

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:28 PM

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Is the parallel GFS new this year? Never knew they had this.

 

Yes, brand new!

 

Liking the "older" OP GFS this run!


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#25
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:29 PM

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gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png



#26
Tom

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:30 PM

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And here comes the Polar Vortex right into the upper Lakes/Ontario on Wednesday...incredible


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#27
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:30 PM

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gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

 

gfsp_asnow_us_24.png



#28
james1976

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:31 PM

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And here comes the Polar Vortex right into the upper Lakes/Ontario on Wednesday...incredible

Lezak has something on his blog about this cold is part of the PV.


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#29
james1976

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:32 PM

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This storm is trying to dig. Gonna be some interesting model runs the next few days.



#30
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:33 PM

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gfsp_T2ma_us_25.png

 

#cold



#31
Tom

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:34 PM

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This is just fascinating to see winter come during the second week of November.  Just amazing to see these kind of weather maps so early in the season.  I can't imagine what this pattern will do Dec-Mar.  This nation may set a snow cover record this year.



#32
james1976

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:35 PM

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WOW. GFS has the majority of the people on this board at -teens 850s for a few days straight next week. When this recycles during the LRC how cold will it be then????



#33
james1976

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:36 PM

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Looks like a lot of snowshower activity around the Great Lakes all next week as well on this run.



#34
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:41 PM

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Ukie should be out in a min or two. GGEM out to HR 24. So far, pretty good signs on both the GFS. 



#35
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:43 PM

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Hmm. Wish we had that HR 132 panel. 

 

GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif



#36
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:47 PM

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Hmm. Wish we had that HR 132 panel. 

 

GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

Probably a 1002mb low in Illinois or something?



#37
East Dubzz

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:47 PM

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Yeah I'm a little confused with what the UKMET just did.

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 18.35"

July rainfall total: 4.15"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.60" (7/18)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2


#38
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:49 PM

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Looks kinda like what the GFS did in regards to taking it down into OK/TX.

 

Not sure though. 



#39
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:49 PM

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Yeah I'm a little confused with what the UKMET just did.

 

That shift south of the primary low from NW Nebraska to the panhandle of TX is pretty wacky.



#40
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 08:50 PM

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Probably a 1002mb low in Illinois or something?

 

Yeah, if I had to guess it probably took it between St. Louis and Chicago. 



#41
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 09:11 PM

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134_100.gif

 

135_100.gif



#42
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 05 November 2014 - 09:17 PM

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The interesting thing about most of these models is the heaviest precip is well north of the low.  On that map, the low is in N Kansas, yet there is no precip close to the low center.  That may change in subsequent images.



#43
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 09:35 PM

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GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif



#44
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 09:36 PM

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GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif



#45
Tom

Posted 05 November 2014 - 09:46 PM

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00z GGEM is turning out to be the beginning of a GEM!  Classic deep trough digging deep down the leeward side of the Rockies into the southern Plains while a deepening SLP ejects out of the Pan Handle into the Lower Lakes.  Now this is what I'm talking about....



#46
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 09:48 PM

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Really liking the model trends tonight...


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#47
Tom

Posted 05 November 2014 - 09:49 PM

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That shift south of the primary low from NW Nebraska to the panhandle of TX is pretty wacky.

Not whacky when your talking about a punishing shot of arctic air, tanking AO and the driving force of the PV down into southern Canada.  This pattern is anything BUT normal and I'm expecting an extraordinary outcome.



#48
Tom

Posted 05 November 2014 - 09:50 PM

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Really liking the model trends tonight...

Ya buddy!  Just want to see what the Euro is showing but it looks like this baby wants to dig down south into the Pan Handle.  I just don't see the northern route, never have been on that bandwagon as I expressed my thoughts on why that wouldn't or rather, shouldn't happen.  Would like to see this baby lay down snow from the Plains to the Lakes and share the love.



#49
Money

Posted 05 November 2014 - 09:54 PM

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GGEM ensembles are in. Many look like the OP but a few still have that northern route, and one or two have no storm at all. Plenty of huge solutions though for many in the forum



#50
Tom

Posted 05 November 2014 - 10:14 PM

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Lol, 00z GGEM is showing subzero lows in NE/IA/N KS/N MO/IL/WI next week...crazy cold bias