Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

[WBadgersW]

Game over fun while it lasted.

Everyother day the models are shifting North and South. We still have plenty of time remaining for another shift South. The thing that worries me is that MKX this morning said we should expect to see 4-6". Whenever they release that early the storm is a dud.

[Tom]

12z Euro Control...hinting at the 2nd piece cutting up the lower lakes...

[Sciascia]

12z Euro Control...hinting at the 2nd piece cutting up the lower lakes...

Definitely interesting to see the 3.5-4 inch blues around this area.

[FV-Mike]

LOT's take on the storm next week

 

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE EARLY ON IN THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON
PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF EXPECTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH WHICH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS OF MORNING
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A TRACK MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP TO BE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP LIKEWISE STAYING TO THE
NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE LATEST TREND...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A
MORE WINTRY SETUP OVER A PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL
FOR VARYING PRECIP TYPES...A RATHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE
JUST TO THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF A TREND FOR ALL RAIN WOULD BE
FAVORED...COULD EASILY SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT AT
SOME POINT AS THIS COLD AIR QUICKLY WRAPS AROUND THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH REGARD TO THE EXPECTED COLD AIRMASS
WHICH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINING FORECAST
PERIOD...PROVIDING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE CWA.
 

[Scott26]

Not only that, but the models have an extremely difficult time trying to figure out what to do with the energy when it crosses the Rockies.  Along with that fiasco, you have an extremely powerful arctic front sliding down the east side of the Rockies.  Put 2 and 2 together, model mayhem is the result.  That's why I said earlier that the 00z Sunday runs will be monitored closely as the energy will begin to enter the balloon network and get better data.

 

Having said that, the development on the 12z Euro run is fascinating not just bc it is showing a stark difference from previous runs but its something the CFS/CFSv2 have been showing 3 weeks ago on the potential for many pan handle hook type systems to open November.  Here we are with the model (albeit just 1 run) starting to show it.  Secondly, the Euro ensembles keep expanding the snow chances farther south each run which leads you to believe folks south of the I-80 are not out of the woods just yet.  Lets see where the 18z GFS run takes us.

I don't think that the 12Z Euro is very plausible. The arctic front is really going to suppress that second wave to the south.

[james1976]

18Z gfs way north and then weakens as it moves into Lakes.

[Money]

Parallel gfs hammers south central and central wi with 12+

[Geos]

Almost seems like the models are transitioning this wave into something totally different. I wish the energy would kick out in one piece.

 

A secondary low is quite plausible in this type of setup, so I wouldn't write off what the EURO is showing. Nor would I dismiss the models coming back to where they were yesterday.

 

Parallel GFS

 

 

[james1976]

Such a small window. Goes from no snow to a ton. Whoever ends up in that sweet spot is gonna get a heck of a dumping.

[Scott26]

Almost seems like the models are transitioning this wave into something totally different. I wish the energy would kick out in one piece.

 

A secondary low is quite plausible in this type of setup, so I wouldn't write off what the EURO is showing. Nor would I dismiss the models coming back to where they were yesterday.

The secondary low is quite plausible, but you have to take into account the arctic front possibly suppressing that wave. We will see though because this obviously isn't always the case, but usually seems to be.

[Geos]

The secondary low is quite plausible, but you have to take into account the arctic front possibly suppressing that wave. We will see though because this obviously isn't always the case, but usually seems to be.

 

One thing I do know is the Arctic air masses like to run down the front range of the Rockies fairly fast and hard. A change in a 100 miles to where the front ends up would play a significant role in where the low kicks out at. 

 

To have a shot at snow in NE IL we would want the low to kick out around Colorado Springs or even a bit further south.

[Tom]

The secondary low is quite plausible, but you have to take into account the arctic front possibly suppressing that wave. We will see though because this obviously isn't always the case, but usually seems to be.

Depends on the situation with the arcitc front.  Sometimes you can get a trailing cold front and the 2nd wave develops along it like the 12z Euro was showing.  Many options, many more runs to go...

[Scott26]

One thing I do know is the Arctic air masses like to run down the front range of the Rockies fairly fast and hard. A change in a 100 miles to where the front ends up would play a significant role in where the low kicks out at. 

Yeah, definitely. Models do sometimes have issues with Arctic air masses and a shift in the placement of the front can definitely have huge implications.

[Tom]

Earily quiet in here....the calm before the storm????

[WBadgersW]

Earily quiet in here....the calm before the storm????

Seems like everyone gave up hope

[Madtown]

I have given up. Climo and model trends say no way jose

[MarcusBeier]

Still hope in SEMI, but earily quiet because i cant tell if im in the game or not LOL. I almost want to take a trip to Traverse City just for the storm, they are in the sweet spot for sure.

[Geos]

Our new climatology might be a cooler one in the years to come.

I wouldn't write off snow farther south, especially given what the EURO was showing today.

 

IWX even talking about snow near the MI state line if CAA moves in quicker.

 

 

OF NOTE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A SHARPLY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUE
OF WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST WELL THROUGH AT LEAST DY10 AND FNTL WAVE
LIFTING UP ACRS THE OH VALLEY. THERMAL PROFILES TOUGH TO CALL EARLY
TUE PENDING EXACT LOW TRACK AND ASSOCD SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
PLACEMENT HWVR PRIOR SHRA/SHSN MENTION STILL HOLDS W/POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL HIGH ACRS NW/NRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
STRONGEST FGEN SIGNAL AND FASTER LL CAA ONSET.

 

Low level cold air likes to be sneaky and undercut the milder air. The RGEM model is starting to show sleet and ice in southern WI and northern IA.

 

0z NAM has started...

[bud2380]

It seems very likely at this point that Southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin are the most likely to get hit hard.  I'm still holding out hope though that the Euro's solution of a secondary wave forming on the frontal boundary comes to fruition.  So far no other model is hinting at it, but the Euro is usually pretty accurate at this range. 

[bud2380]

NAM at 63 hours; looks even further north

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/t06mneN.gif

[WildWisconsinWeather]

It seems very likely at this point that Southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin are the most likely to get hit hard.  I'm still holding out hope though that the Euro's solution of a secondary wave forming on the frontal boundary comes to fruition.  So far no other model is hinting at it, but the Euro is usually pretty accurate at this range. 

 

A prediction of a weak stripe of 1-3" of snow a few days out is not likely to yield success, so I think it will be pretty much a non-entity.

[Geos]

Looks like the cold air gets a bit more entrenched further south on this run of the NAM - so far.

 

Nevermind - NAM is the most NW solution at this time, that's for sure! Takes the low over towards Prairie du Chien, WI at 75 hr then towards Sheboygan.

 

Doesn't make much sense that the low would cut up into the Arctic air mass like that.

 

[bud2380]

A prediction of a weak stripe of 1-3" of snow a few days out is not likely to yield success, so I think it will be pretty much a non-entity.

 

Yeah, I doubt it pans out either, but right now it's the only shot I have where I live of seeing any snow.  We're going to be nowhere near the snow. 

[Geos]

0z GFS initialized... 

So nice having the 0z runs comes out an hour earlier!

[Madtown]

How we lookin

[NEJeremy]

0Z Nam would have me getting to 60 now on Monday, lol! The bottom still falls out later in the day but man what a difference compared to previous and other model runs

[Tom]

00z GFS...

[Geos]

Low tries to come out in NE, but is forced to reform near the OK panhandle. The energy is still unconsolidated on this run.

 

Well we need to build the snowpack to the north, so the next storm has yet more cold air to work with.

[clintbeed1993]

Well, another miss for the cornhusker state.

[NEJeremy]

going back north like the NAM= no go for Nebraska on this one. At least it looks like we might have a chance at 60 now on Monday, On to the next storm.....

[CentralNebWeather]

Missed again, the state song for Nebraska snowstorm misses. Gets alot of play over the years. On to the next miss, I mean storm.

[Geos]

Was looking at the total moisture from this storm and most of the precip. is in the form of snow. Not even much rain in the warm sector. Could use some more moisture in this area even.

 

[Tom]

00z GGEM...trying to develop the 2nd wave for the first time this run...weak sauce though

[Geos]

00z GGEM...trying to develop the 2nd wave for the first time this run...weak sauce though

 

Before than nothing! Interesting - something to watch for on the other models.

[Money]

Really on the edge here in Oshkosh. GGEM/Parallel GFS would be about 6-8 but NAM would be hardly anything. This is why it sucks being in the bullseye 4 days out, because it usually never works in your favor. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Before than nothing! Interesting - something to watch for on the other models.

 

With possibly marginal temps it will be nothing by the time this happens in actuality.  Anyway, I'm ready to punt, DAB for here I'm 90% sure.

[Money]

I'm gonna give it until 12z Sunday or so until I punt. I've seen it too many times where the models go too far NW and then correct themselves as we get closer. Although, it's more likely than not it keeps trending NW. We'll see. It's 3rd and long right now.

[Geos]

Imo, this system can't go too much further north or west than the NAM has shown.

 

@ Wild Wisconsin - already seen accumulating snow here, so I know if it snows it can stick.

 

EURO is starting...

[Money]

euro is wayyy NW. 

[Money]

This sucks. When will everything be fully sampled?