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Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

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#451
Tom

Posted 08 November 2014 - 10:17 AM

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1004.3 L just SW of Chicago at HR 72 on the Euro. 

850's look warm up into Wisco...Wx Bell not loading yet



#452
Money

Posted 08 November 2014 - 10:19 AM

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Yeah looks like LSE to GB gets a pretty good storm. 



#453
gosaints

Posted 08 November 2014 - 10:33 AM

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Havent had a real november snow  in a long time.  Skeptical



#454
Tom

Posted 08 November 2014 - 10:41 AM

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12z Euro...looks like this is going towards a Northwoods special...develops the SLP near N IL/S MI but too warm in S WI.



#455
Scott26

Posted 08 November 2014 - 10:43 AM

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12Z Euro does show around 0.4 QPF for the Chicago area, but it's mostly rain.



#456
Money

Posted 08 November 2014 - 10:45 AM

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Scott, do you have the text output for OSH at all? 



#457
james1976

Posted 08 November 2014 - 10:47 AM

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Man, just keeps going further north. Does it get sampled tonight?



#458
Scott26

Posted 08 November 2014 - 10:49 AM

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Scott, do you have the text output for OSH at all? 

No, I have weatherbell. I was just estimating the QPF based on the precip maps.


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#459
Money

Posted 08 November 2014 - 10:49 AM

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Man, just keeps going further north. Does it get sampled tonight?

 

Actually, the 12z euro went south from 0z. At least the main band. 



#460
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 10:58 AM

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12z Euro...looks like this is going towards a Northwoods special...develops the SLP near N IL/S MI but too warm in S WI.

 

I have a feeling that the system will be a bit south of where that maps show due to the baroclinic zone pushing in a bit more. As far as the second low, I think the models are under doing the low level cold air being tugged down behind the first wave. 

 

The winds will be offshore at 78 hours, so that throws out the marine influence. The 850 mb's temps just need to crash a little sooner. By 84 hours the area is down near -5°C. Most locations in SE WI wouldn't have a probably getting an inch or two.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#461
Tom

Posted 08 November 2014 - 11:13 AM

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I have a feeling that the system will be a bit south of where that maps show due to the baroclinic zone pushing in a bit more. As far as the second low, I think the models are under doing the low level cold air being tugged down behind the first wave. 

 

The winds will be offshore at 78 hours, so that throws out the marine influence. The 850 mb's temps just need to crash a little sooner. By 84 hours the area is down near -5°C. Most locations in SE WI wouldn't have a probably getting an inch or two.

The problem I see with the baraclinic zone is it sets up farther north and the main "push" of arctic air is happening in the Plains states and once the system passes the Lakes feel it.  If the pattern upstream on Sunday by the little wave passing through N Wisco/U.P. can push that first front farther south, then yes, I can see the storm track a bit south.  You have to look up stream in order for the storm behind it to react where to go.  By tomorrow 12z runs it will be fully sampled so we shall see.



#462
Grizzcoat

Posted 08 November 2014 - 11:22 AM

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I'm really surprised the twin cities office didn't issue a winter storm watch. I suspect it will this afternoon. Right after the hawkeyes destroy the gophers!

U of M Graduate. Payback for all those blowouts you did to us at Kinnick North. Kinnick North is dust now!!


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#463
Money

Posted 08 November 2014 - 11:26 AM

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What I did like is the 12z runs all shifted south from 0z (at least a little bit) and the NW trend stopped. 


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#464
NEJeremy

Posted 08 November 2014 - 11:46 AM

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I don't think there is going to be much more of a change. We're within 36 hours of the event for most places. Also hasn't this storm been sampled by now? Before, Tom said by the 0Z runs last night it would be sampled and now I see Tom saying the 12Z runs TOMORROW?? One thing I do know is Nebraska is out of any appreciable snow on this one.



#465
gosaints

Posted 08 November 2014 - 11:47 AM

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I don't think there is going to be much more of a change. We're within 36 hours of the event for most places. Also hasn't this storm been sampled by now? Before, Tom said by the 0Z runs last night it would be sampled and now I see Tom saying the 12Z runs TOMORROW?? One thing I do know is Nebraska is out of the snow on this one.

Cant see it budging much further south than what the southern camp is showing right now, but I could see the EURO blinking south to catch up with the rest of the models.  MSP looks like the place to be at the moment.



#466
Tom

Posted 08 November 2014 - 11:48 AM

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I don't think there is going to be much more of a change. We're within 36 hours of the event for most places. Also hasn't this storm been sampled by now? Before, Tom said by the 0Z runs last night it would be sampled and now I see Tom saying the 12Z runs TOMORROW?? One thing I do know is Nebraska is out of any appreciable snow on this one.

You can see the storm hitting British Columbia at 00z Sunday, so partial sampling will be taken, but 12z Sunday you can be sure it would be fully sampled.  That's what I was trying to say....



#467
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 12:17 PM

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The problem I see with the baraclinic zone is it sets up farther north and the main "push" of arctic air is happening in the Plains states and once the system passes the Lakes feel it.  If the pattern upstream on Sunday by the little wave passing through N Wisco/U.P. can push that first front farther south, then yes, I can see the storm track a bit south.  You have to look up stream in order for the storm behind it to react where to go.  By tomorrow 12z runs it will be fully sampled so we shall see.

 

Thanks for that further explanation. 

Some really cold air in back of that disturbance pushing eastward.

 

namncsfcwbg.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#468
Money

Posted 08 November 2014 - 12:25 PM

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18z NAM coming in way NW of 12z. Brings 40's up into SE WI 



#469
Money

Posted 08 November 2014 - 12:43 PM

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NAM takes the low to DBQ and then moves pretty much east into MKE area. 



#470
Tom

Posted 08 November 2014 - 12:44 PM

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18z NAM...some lolipop totals showing up in the U.P....skiing and snowmobile season will be getting off to an early start if this transpires.



#471
Money

Posted 08 November 2014 - 12:47 PM

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Winter Storm Watch posted for: .EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON...

TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...
STEVENS POINT...CRIVITZ

 

6-12 inches possible. 



#472
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 12:47 PM

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By looking at the watches that have been issued by MPX and GRB, they are not siding with the NAM. More like a GGEM/GFS blend.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#473
gosaints

Posted 08 November 2014 - 12:59 PM

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MPX mentions very low confidence in where the band will set up



#474
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 08 November 2014 - 01:05 PM

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I have a feeling that the system will be a bit south of where that maps show due to the baroclinic zone pushing in a bit more. As far as the second low, I think the models are under doing the low level cold air being tugged down behind the first wave. 

 

The winds will be offshore at 78 hours, so that throws out the marine influence. The 850 mb's temps just need to crash a little sooner. By 84 hours the area is down near -5°C. Most locations in SE WI wouldn't have a probably getting an inch or two.

 

No recent trends indicate that.  Not only that, but the last several days we have generally overachieved with temps vs the forecast, so sadly I'm going to have to assume some more overachieving temps, at least with this trough (that is to say, probably mid 30s vs staying below freezing for highs, which is cold either way, but Monday might hit 50 here lol.)



#475
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 08 November 2014 - 01:07 PM

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Cant see it budging much further south than what the southern camp is showing right now, but I could see the EURO blinking south to catch up with the rest of the models.  MSP looks like the place to be at the moment.

 

I think MSP will be just north of the main band, Rochester to Green Bay looks to be the place to be as I see it.



#476
Money

Posted 08 November 2014 - 01:12 PM

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GB current thinking:

 

FCST_TotalSnowAmt.png



#477
Money

Posted 08 November 2014 - 01:13 PM

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MKE current thinking:

 

SnowMap_WI.png

 

Talks about maybe a couple inches on Tuesday on the backside of the system but mentions that's uncertain at this time. 


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#478
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 08 November 2014 - 01:16 PM

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MKE current thinking:

 

SnowMap_WI.png

 

Talks about maybe a couple inches on Tuesday on the backside of the system but mentions that's uncertain at this time. 

 

It's funny that the same areas that hogged all the fall severe weather (N Wisconsin esp) are the same areas that are receiving the first big snowfall of fall.  Time to share the wealth of interesting weather, Hayward and Rhinelander had some explosive thunderstorms in September and October.



#479
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 03:49 PM

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No recent trends indicate that.  Not only that, but the last several days we have generally overachieved with temps vs the forecast, so sadly I'm going to have to assume some more overachieving temps, at least with this trough (that is to say, probably mid 30s vs staying below freezing for highs, which is cold either way, but Monday might hit 50 here lol.)

 

You're probably right given that there isn't much snow cover south of Lake Superior. Now if there was, it would be a different story. Hopefully with covering the Northwoods country with snow it will mean the next system to come along with have a strong/significant supply of cold air just to the north of itself.

In a way I wish this system would speed back up, but if there isn't snow cover to the north than the cold air supply won't be as strong.

 

18z GFS hasn't budged really at all.

 

post-7389-0-61806900-1415490375.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#480
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 05:05 PM

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This is what the new GFS thinks will fall in the Upper Great Lakes.

 

post-7389-0-19582900-1415495027.png

 

Northern Plains.

 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#481
Snowshoe

Posted 08 November 2014 - 05:28 PM

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18z GFS gives me 12 inches. Then to think it will be sub freezing into the foreseeable future...good God! Crazy!

Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#482
gosaints

Posted 08 November 2014 - 06:12 PM

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NAM slower looking  even further nw



#483
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 06:26 PM

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I notice the NAM is shooting the heaviest snow axis right at the Twin Cities at 39 hours. Even a touch south.

 

post-7389-0-59455500-1415501009.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#484
james1976

Posted 08 November 2014 - 06:48 PM

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I hate sharp cutoffs.



#485
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 06:59 PM

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I hate sharp cutoffs.

 

Yeah same here. Maybe you can pick up a dusting at least. Down here it's all going to come down to the second wave and whether or not it can get its act together.

 

Well, onto the GFS in about 30 minutes.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#486
WI AOS Student Tanner

Posted 08 November 2014 - 07:15 PM

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Hey Goes.....I have weatherbell, but do not know where to get the inner domain, or close up maps with the GFS. Where did you find that map of snow totals in Wisconsin? Thanks!!


Atmospheric Science Program at UW-Madison

Intern at NBC26 in Green Bay

Certified skywarn spotter

Head forecaster and editor at www.midwestweather.org 


#487
Grizzcoat

Posted 08 November 2014 - 08:09 PM

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 Bueller? Bueller??  Sounds of crickets.   Awful quiet in here for storm of this magnitude.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#488
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 08:09 PM

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Hey Goes.....I have weatherbell, but do not know where to get the inner domain, or close up maps with the GFS. Where did you find that map of snow totals in Wisconsin? Thanks!!

 

Hey - Go to the models pages, then to GFS Upgrade, beta. Then if you look to the column on the far right you'll see the geographical areas listed.  Go to United States regions, then you'll be able to choose the state and then just choose what map (parameter) to look at.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#489
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 08:15 PM

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New GFS snowfall map.

 

post-7389-0-18055000-1415506450.png

 

post-7389-0-99868100-1415506857.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#490
Snowshoe

Posted 08 November 2014 - 08:23 PM

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Consistent

Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#491
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 08:26 PM

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Outside of the snowbelts in the UP of MI, I think somewhere from Eau Claire over towards Wausau will cash in the biggest for this storm.

 

GGEM coming in and it has the heavier snow axis more towards I-90 in MN.

 

Secondary wave stronger still.

 

Close -

 

post-7389-0-74238800-1415507687.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#492
gosaints

Posted 08 November 2014 - 08:59 PM

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Riding the edge on the globals here

#493
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 09:14 PM

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Riding the edge on the globals here

 

I think you'll get some snow for sure though.

 

4km NAM

 

post-7389-0-61061600-1415510005.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#494
Geos

Posted 08 November 2014 - 10:03 PM

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Looks like the EURO is coming in a bit south from its 12z run.

 

990mb low over central NE.

 

Actually the low kicks out further south in CO, but the snow band is north like the NAM. Weird...

 

Snow band the furthest north I've seen it on the EURO and furthest north of any other model tonight.

Heaviest snow way up north just south of DLH.

 

993mb low in NW TX and 997mb just SW of DSM at 48 hr.

 

Yeah pretty different ---

 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#495
gosaints

Posted 09 November 2014 - 06:19 AM

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Nam close to a shut out in Msp

#496
james1976

Posted 09 November 2014 - 06:49 AM

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if i get enough to make the ground white ill be happy. Still be a good bday gift!



#497
james1976

Posted 09 November 2014 - 07:02 AM

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DMX still saying 1-2" in northern Iowa. I would take that. Also talking single digit lows late week and possible system next weekend, which would be all snow.



#498
Snowshoe

Posted 09 November 2014 - 07:10 AM

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The NW trend is my friend... until it's not. Hoping for a small shift south but that's unlikely. Early and late season storms always hold surprises. I'll post reports from central Wisconsin.

Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#499
gosaints

Posted 09 November 2014 - 07:11 AM

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Rgem definetly south of nam

#500
Madtown

Posted 09 November 2014 - 07:17 AM

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Mkx saying 1-2 tues...I'll believe it when I see it