Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

[Geos]

This sucks. When will everything be fully sampled? 

 

0z runs tomorrow I believe.

 

Did not expect the EURO to mirror the NAM!

[Money]

HR 96 has a 1003 L in S. MI 

[Tom]

HR 96 has a 1003 L in S. MI 

Yup, Euro still developing a lower lakes cutter...will post maps when they load...

[Geos]

Yup, Euro still developing a lower lakes cutter...will post maps when they load...

 

Not too shabby. Little stronger than the 12z run.

[Tom]

00z Euro...still getting interesting with this storm system....looking more developed this run from previous run...

[Tom]

Patience is hard to find but it you have it, it can build character....until this storm is fully sampled Sunday afternoon, expect the model mayhem to continue.

 

 

 

GFS/NAM vs. GGME/EURO....who will win this battle????

[WildWisconsinWeather]

00z Euro...still getting interesting with this storm system....looking more developed this run from previous run...

 

Lol, oh why does it have to suck me back in, hopefully if it does happen it gets delayed by another six hours so it can occur at night.

[Money]

Tom, what's the reason for the sudden NW trend on all the models? It's not just a minor shift, it's a major shift. 

[Tom]

Lol, oh why does it have to suck me back in, hopefully if it does happen it gets delayed by another six hours so it can occur at night.

Thermal's look marginal but its because the storm is weak this run.  Increase the storms intensity, you tug down more arctic air and booyaa...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Thermal's look marginal but its because the storm is weak this run.  Increase the storms intensity, you tug down more arctic air and booyaa...

 

Yeah, but increase the intensity, it may shift NW and miss us like the first wave; then again, it seems the runs where the storm shifts NW and runs into the block have been weaker, so maybe in this case if it shifts SE it maintains its strength.  Definitely an interestingly snowy week for much of Wisco even if Chicago and Milwaukee are left in the rainy or dry sector.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Tom, what's the reason for the sudden NW trend on all the models? It's not just a minor shift, it's a major shift. 

 

I know I'm not Tom, but it's partly the reality of climo, it's hard for the arctic front to press quite as far south as it had been modeled.

[Tom]

Tom, what's the reason for the sudden NW trend on all the models? It's not just a minor shift, it's a major shift. 

That's a good question, but I suspect its bc the first piece of energy ejects out ahead of the driving trough into Montana and the Dakotas.  The heights over the Lakes are not being affected much by the ULL near Ontario and so it goes due east.  Once the energy is over the Lakes, it drags a trailing cold front behind it and the 2nd piece then develops and heads NNE.

[Tom]

I know I'm not Tom, but it's partly the reality of climo, it's hard for the arctic front to press quite as far south as it had been modeled.

Initially, the models days ago drove the trough farther east into the Midwest/Lakes but we are seeing the westward correction and the main trough dives into the Plains (just east of the Rockies) but eventually make its way east towards the lakes.  I've been watching the CFSv2 for a while now and this was the pattern it depicted weeks ago and its coming into fruition now.  I like the idea of a secondary low pressure developing from the southern Plains into the Lakes.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Initially, the models days ago drove the trough farther east into the Midwest/Lakes but we are seeing the westward correction and the main trough dives into the Plains (just east of the Rockies) but eventually make its way east towards the lakes.  I've been watching the CFSv2 for a while now and this was the pattern it depicted weeks ago and its coming into fruition now.  I like the idea of a secondary low pressure developing from the southern Plains into the Lakes.

 

That's true, the westward correction is to be documented as well wrt the trough, which should help us maybe avoid suppression later this season if it becomes a staple of the model mayhem.

[Money]

No other model shows the secondary low pressure system though, right?

[Tom]

No other model shows the secondary low pressure system though, right?

GGEM/EURO vs GFS/NAM....I posted a map that showed the GGEM trying to sniff it out as well....

[East Dubzz]

Interesting runs tonight.

 

Oh, and the Blackhawks... *facepalm*

[bud2380]

I'm really surprised the twin cities office didn't issue a winter storm watch. I suspect it will this afternoon. Right after the hawkeyes destroy the gophers!

[bud2380]

I like what the euro is showing for the secondary wave but it seems temps are still marginal so accumulations are likely minimal based on current data

[Snowshoe]

GFS/NAM vs. GGME/EURO....who will win this battle????

It's not called King EURO for nothing.

[FV-Mike]

I'm really surprised the twin cities office didn't issue a winter storm watch. I suspect it will this afternoon. Right after the hawkeyes destroy the gophers!

University of Iowa graduate. Go Hawks!

[Money]

12z NAM moved a bit south taking the low through Milwaukee. 

[Money]

GFS might be slightly south as well, although not a huge shift.

 

Parallel GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110812/gfsp_asnow_us_11.png

[Tom]

GFS Par looking like it wants to dig south...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GFS Par looking like it wants to dig south...

 

It is south, but these models shifted over 100 miles north yesterday in many cases, so it's going to take some big shifts south to bring the great threat back to Milwaukee and esp the northern burbs of Chicago.

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110812/gfsp_asnow_us_14.png

[Money]

It is south, but these models shifted over 100 miles north yesterday in many cases, so it's going to take some big shifts south to bring the great threat back to Milwaukee and esp the northern burbs of Chicago.

 

Like I said yesterday, I've seen it way too many times where models have this huge NW trend only to bring it back south as the event nears. I've seen it both ways, so I wouldn't count out a south track although climo would probably agree with the north trend.

[Tom]

It is south, but these models shifted over 100 miles north yesterday in many cases, so it's going to take some big shifts south to bring the great threat back to Milwaukee and esp the northern burbs of Chicago.

True, I wasn't expected N IL to get much anyhow but a couple inches maybe if the secondary low develops like the GGEM/EURO were showing.  By tomorrow this time I'd imagine the models will hone in on a track and decipher what to do with both pieces.

[Tom]

Like I said yesterday, I've seen it way too many times where models have this huge NW trend only to bring it back south as the event nears. I've seen it both ways, so I wouldn't count out a south track although climo would probably agree with the north trend.

There have actually been studies on models which indicate that a higher percentage of time, the models correct themselves to what they advertised 3-5 days before the storm hit to be accurate.  So yes, I can see the models trend back south like they showed 2 days ago.

[Tom]

Noticing there could be a period of LES on the GFS on the back side of this system...

[Maxim]

NW trend won in the GHD Blizzard..

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif

[WildWisconsinWeather]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif

 

I notice the GEM capitulated to the other models in terms of strength, one strike against the GEM for the year.

[Money]

Tom, could you post the GGEM  maps when they come out? Thanks bud.

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

[Tom]

12z GGEM trying to bring some love into NE with the second piece hanging back.  Hope it does for you guys out there.

[Money]

It looks like it really tries to strengthen the low as it passes by Chicago. Another nice band of snow develops that affects E. IA/most of Wisconsin. GFS tried to do the same thing too.