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Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

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#501
gosaints

Posted 09 November 2014 - 07:36 AM

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Gfs won't budge

#502
WildWisconsinWeather

Posted 09 November 2014 - 07:48 AM

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So far it looks like the score is: Climo: 1  Models: 0.



#503
gosaints

Posted 09 November 2014 - 07:54 AM

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Gfs and nam pretty far apart

#504
gosaints

Posted 09 November 2014 - 08:18 AM

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Ggem south and east

#505
james1976

Posted 09 November 2014 - 09:09 AM

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Can't wait til this system comes back around on the second cycle of the LRC.



#506
Tom

Posted 09 November 2014 - 09:11 AM

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Can't wait til this system comes back around on the second cycle of the LRC.

Same here...it also another phased/juicy system in this new LRC pattern.  We had a few of these this Autumn already.  Good sign.



#507
Scott26

Posted 09 November 2014 - 09:41 AM

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So far it looks like the score is: Climo: 1  Models: 0.

The reason why I was never buying any southern solution. The models weren't too bad with the system though. Of course there was the usual model mayhem in the medium range, but the track has been fairly consistent the last couple of days now.



#508
BrianJK

Posted 09 November 2014 - 10:20 AM

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I think I may head to my place up north in Eagle River.  They have the potential to see 12-18 inches.  I'll take some pics. 

 

If they do end up with that much, I wouldn't be surprised if today was the last day of bare ground until March/April.


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#509
WI AOS Student Tanner

Posted 09 November 2014 - 10:58 AM

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My latest thoughts: http://www.midwestwe...orm-monday.html


Atmospheric Science Program at UW-Madison

Intern at NBC26 in Green Bay

Certified skywarn spotter

Head forecaster and editor at www.midwestweather.org 


#510
Geos

Posted 09 November 2014 - 11:37 AM

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The NW trend is my friend... until it's not. Hoping for a small shift south but that's unlikely. Early and late season storms always hold surprises. I'll post reports from central Wisconsin.

 

Sounds good! Looking for to your reports. I think you're in a good spot to see around 10".

 

Trying to understand why MKX is mentioning 1-2" for SE WI... I think they might expect some snow to break out with the Arctic front. It happened last November on 11/12. Or they expect more backlash snow to get wrapped around. Not entirely sure on that call.

 

12z EURO

 

post-7389-0-82004000-1415561426.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#511
Geos

Posted 09 November 2014 - 11:44 AM

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Regular GFS and the New GFS

 

 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#512
Money

Posted 09 November 2014 - 11:45 AM

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This is exactly why you never want to be in the bullseye 3-4 days out. Usually never works out

#513
Tom

Posted 09 November 2014 - 12:00 PM

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It looks like this system on Tuesday wants to wrap up and almost go neg tilt.  I was watching for that to happen with this system and instead of holding back that energy like the Euro was showing days ago, it comes out, phases and goes neg tilt and that is why your seeing these impressive snow amounts in the Northwoods.  

 

Same thing goes for next weekends system.  12z Euro is holding back the energy in the Rockies/4 corners region and bringing some overruning snows into western KS/NE but never ejects out completely.  It makes sense for it to come out since the first arctic front would have gone by and the suppressing HP would move onto the east already before the next one hits.  The part of the pattern that may suppress  the system is that another piece of the PV digs farther south into the Upper Lakes next weekend. If we have snow on the ground, high temps in the Teens are possible from I-80 north by next Tuesday.  Euro showing low 20's now.  Amazing.


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#514
Money

Posted 09 November 2014 - 12:12 PM

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18z NAM is even more NW and doesn't give GB hardly any snow. 



#515
gosaints

Posted 09 November 2014 - 12:35 PM

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This is the best the nam has developed the backside of the storm however

#516
Tom

Posted 09 November 2014 - 12:38 PM

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What first looked like days ago where it was an initial wave that was ejected out ahead of the main system, is looking more and more like this system phases and goes neg tilt in the Lakes.



#517
Geos

Posted 09 November 2014 - 04:17 PM

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Just looked at the GGEM and it still has that second wave. Really close to catching some snow around here at 54 hours. Madison, Janesville, and even Waukesha County might picked up more than a dusting.

 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#518
Madtown

Posted 09 November 2014 - 06:06 PM

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Just my observation but sure seems like the temps right now are cold further south than expected. Not saying it makes a difference for me but I bet heaviest snow is a little south of the models.

#519
Geos

Posted 09 November 2014 - 06:28 PM

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Just my observation but sure seems like the temps right now are cold further south than expected. Not saying it makes a difference for me but I bet heaviest snow is a little south of the models.

 

Yeah - good observation. It does seem that way. Shallow cold air working it way into central WI for sure. Northern Iowa too.

 

 

Front looks further south than it should be. 

 

namncsfcwbg.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#520
Madtown

Posted 09 November 2014 - 06:30 PM

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Oh yeah and the bears still suck :)

#521
Snowshoe

Posted 09 November 2014 - 08:43 PM

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12z NAM even further north

Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#522
Geos

Posted 09 November 2014 - 08:44 PM

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A meteorologist on Amwx noted the colder air sagging further south than forecasted tonight. He's favoring the GGEM model and is thinking frozen precip could come a bit further south.

 

That time to start watching the radar fairly soon and not the models. Well maybe the high resolution ones for a bit yet.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#523
Snowshoe

Posted 10 November 2014 - 06:40 AM

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About a .25 inch of slush wet snow. The main WAA snow band is now to my north. One of the few times I'll be somewhat happy with missing the heavy snow.


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#524
Geos

Posted 10 November 2014 - 08:04 AM

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Found a pretty cool camera from Park Falls, WI.

 

Jealous, haha

 

current.jpg?1415635437


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#525
Geos

Posted 10 November 2014 - 08:35 AM

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Otsego, MN is getting dumped on. That's I-94.

 

current.jpg?1415637295


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#526
Tom

Posted 10 November 2014 - 08:58 AM

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Snow cam up in the U.P. and Indian Head Mtn...pretty nice ski resort that I've been to before...they should get about 2 Feet with LES...

 

http://www.indianhea...=MountainTopCam



#527
Geos

Posted 10 November 2014 - 10:59 AM

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Marquette/Harvey, MI.

 

current.jpg?1415645757

 

MSP lowered there amounts. North trend did win this time around.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#528
Snowshoe

Posted 10 November 2014 - 11:05 AM

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I know I said I'd take pictures but quite frankly it's just gray and ugly outside. Nothing to report. It looks much better in St.Germain, Wi! So far 6 inches.

 

10733962_10152518245772712_2641023891293


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Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#529
gosaints

Posted 10 November 2014 - 12:09 PM

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NAM still throwing about .3 inches QPF here tonight.  Will have to see how it develops as the storm wraps up



#530
Grizzcoat

Posted 10 November 2014 - 02:25 PM

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System really tapped into some warm air. 66F here today at DSM-- was only forecasted to be 57-58F. NWS just upped from 30% to 50% chance snow tonight with totals less then 1"--- which is good compared to what it was. At least the grass might get white... :D


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#531
Geos

Posted 10 November 2014 - 05:18 PM

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Highest total that's I've seen so far.

 

0446 PM SNOW SPOONER 45.82N 91.89W
11/10/2014 M14.0 INCH WASHBURN WI PUBLIC

 

10"+ amount pretty common in the NW quarter of WI.

 

---

 

Can easily see the cold front just east of Waterloo, IA right now.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#532
gabel23

Posted 10 November 2014 - 05:23 PM

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Heck of a looking snow band setting up in Central Nebraska. Won't amount to much but could see a couple tenth's of an inch pretty easily! Pretty crazy how fast the temps fell today.



#533
Madtown

Posted 10 November 2014 - 06:00 PM

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Nice storm for the Northwoods on the anniversary of the Edmund fritzgerald

#534
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 November 2014 - 06:05 PM

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Seeing a really intense snow band coming through. Wind gusting to 45 mph. Will be short lived but good to see snow blowing around. Almost looks like a mini blizzard. Temperature 23 with wind chill in the single digits. Great January night in November.
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#535
Niko

Posted 10 November 2014 - 06:14 PM

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Enjoy.............

 

http://firsthandweat...inter-forecast/



#536
Tom

Posted 10 November 2014 - 06:26 PM

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Seeing a really intense snow band coming through. Wind gusting to 45 mph. Will be short lived but good to see snow blowing around. Almost looks like a mini blizzard. Temperature 23 with wind chill in the single digits. Great January night in November.

Looks like the models picked up on this and maybe underestimated its intensity.  Must be nice to finally see snow fall with the high winds and chilly temps.  Hopefully it covers your grass!


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#537
gabel23

Posted 10 November 2014 - 06:40 PM

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Seeing a really intense snow band coming through. Wind gusting to 45 mph. Will be short lived but good to see snow blowing around. Almost looks like a mini blizzard. Temperature 23 with wind chill in the single digits. Great January night in November.

 

 

Looks like the models picked up on this and maybe underestimated its intensity.  Must be nice to finally see snow fall with the high winds and chilly temps.  Hopefully it covers your grass!

That snow band is knocking on my door step and should be here within the next 30 minutes. I can't wait, we should see our first measurable snow of the season, granted it won't be much! Tom, I don't think the band will be persistent enough nor be able to stay on the ground with all the blowing to cover the grass! One thing is for sure I'm glad I was able to get my garden all cleaned up yesterday when the high topped out at 63!!


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#538
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 November 2014 - 06:41 PM

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Enjoying it immensely.  My wife keeps telling me to shut the door.  I just keep going outside to feel this remarkable change from yesterday.  Hit 70 on Sunday and last time I checked it was 22 with a windchill of 6 but it goes lower with gusts.  It was a really nice band.  Still coming down with the ground now covered.  I didn't expect it to stick on the streets but the front came through this morning at 9 AM and the entire day has seen falling temps.  It has been below freezing since the middle of the afternoon.  This winter is off to a great start.  Not a huge storm but hopefully a pattern that will be more widespread than last year.  Share the wealth.  


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#539
Geos

Posted 10 November 2014 - 06:52 PM

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Seeing a really intense snow band coming through. Wind gusting to 45 mph. Will be short lived but good to see snow blowing around. Almost looks like a mini blizzard. Temperature 23 with wind chill in the single digits. Great January night in November.

 

Looks like a nice little snow "appetizer"! Hopefully that will march it's way east overnight and hold together.

 

---

Low somewhere near DBQ according to the wind plot. Near freezing in La Crosse and around 56° in Davenport right now.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#540
Geos

Posted 10 November 2014 - 07:12 PM

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Nicely written. 

I hope for at least this winter, the cold plunges won't suppress a lot of systems. I think maybe the extended period of snow cover, might be the big story along with the sustained cold. Expecting a lot of powdery snow this winter!


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#541
bud2380

Posted 11 November 2014 - 03:47 AM

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It's snowing! I didn't expect this. We picked up a dusting and the winds are pretty strong. It won't last long but winter is definitely here.

#542
Geos

Posted 11 November 2014 - 06:37 AM

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Looks like a bit of rain and snow here this morning. Temps falling through the upper 30s now here.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#543
NEJeremy

Posted 11 November 2014 - 06:46 AM

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Had a nice band move through Omaha between 11p-1a last night and it dropped 1/2-1" of snow. Roads were wet initially when it was about 26 degrees when it started but this morning all the side roads are a sheet of ice since it dropped down to 18 overnight. Watched this lady go down the street in front of our house that is on a slight hill, just like it was any other day. She slid right through the stop sign and was lucky there was no cross traffic coming through. It's amazing how stupid people are



#544
gabel23

Posted 11 November 2014 - 07:28 AM

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That was a nice band of snow we had last night and with the temps below freezing all day the snow stuck to pavement and all. officially I would call it a dusting but to me in spots it looks like an inch. Either way our first official snowfall fell in November and I'm happy with that. 



#545
Geos

Posted 11 November 2014 - 07:56 AM

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There's been some snow reported just west of the area and a few wet flakes here under more intense radar returns. Hanging in the mid 30s now.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#546
East Dubzz

Posted 11 November 2014 - 08:33 AM

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Some good rain this morning. But also saw some flakes fly, so that was nice!

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 18.35"

July rainfall total: 4.15"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.60" (7/18)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2


#547
gosaints

Posted 11 November 2014 - 09:09 AM

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Ended with about 3 inches from the backside snows here.  Overall not bad for november 11th



#548
james1976

Posted 11 November 2014 - 09:56 AM

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Happy birthday to me! Woke up and it was lightly snowing. Ended up with a few tenths. Looks like maybe an inch or so on the wooden bench outside here at work!


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#549
james1976

Posted 11 November 2014 - 12:01 PM

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And we just had another snowshower a while ago :)



#550
Niko

Posted 11 November 2014 - 12:57 PM

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Nicely written. 

I hope for at least this winter, the cold plunges won't suppress a lot of systems. I think maybe the extended period of snow cover, might be the big story along with the sustained cold. Expecting a lot of powdery snow this winter!

I prefer powdery type snow because it is so much easier to shovel. It is that heavy wet snow that I do not like. It can really do a workout though, I'll tell you that.