Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

[james1976]

Every model has the heavy snow in exact same area. Lucky dogs up there! Maybe the 2nd low will develop a bit more. I could be wrong but it looks like 12z GFS is trying to develop the 2nd low too.

[Tom]

It looks like it really tries to strengthen the low as it passes by Chicago. Another nice band of snow develops that affects E. IA/most of Wisconsin. GFS tried to do the same thing too. 

These minor changes will be better analyzed as we get closer and it seems the pieces to this system are trying to come together for a larger snow band than what was originally shown.  Good sign.

[Scott26]

 A bit off topic, but I just got the free trial of Weatherbell and I love it so far. I had Accuweather Pro last winter and so far I like Weatherbell a bit better. The one thing I miss is the text data from Accuweather Pro. But, Weatherbell has more user-friendly maps and also you don't have to wait until the whole run is done before you can view the models.

[Geos]

If something like the EURO/GGEM can happen, but a tad SE with second wave that would be awesome! I'm surprised there is no winter storm watches up yet - and more special wx statements.

[Jaycee]

That secondary low could be interesting. If that thing can generate some more energy we could be talking some WWA's in our area, as well as for you guys out in Chicago! If the 12z GFS Parallel pans out though, my family is really in for it. Just a bullseye right over the Rochester/Red Wing area. Unreal amounts on are being spit out again and again on that model.

[Money]

These minor changes will be better analyzed as we get closer and it seems the pieces to this system are trying to come together for a larger snow band than what was originally shown.  Good sign.

 

We'll see. Should hopefully have this locked down by 12z tomorrow. 

[Money]

GFS Ensembles: 

 

60:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f60.html

 

66:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f66.html

 

72:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f72.html

 

78:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f78.html

 

Couple GGEM type solutions in there. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GFS Ensembles: 

 

60:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f60.html

 

66:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f66.html

 

72:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f72.html

 

78:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f78.html

 

Couple GGEM type solutions in there. 

 

I'm seeing very little in the way of a secondary wave on those though, maybe a dusting to a sloppy inch for those who see it go by during the nocturnal hours.

[Money]

MKE AFD:

 

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF INTEREST OVER THE MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED
SNOWFALL FORECAST HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT NORTHWARD SINCE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE MKX FORECAST AREA NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END
UP WITH MAINLY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND NOT MUCH OF IT...
WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING SNOW LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PARKED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL EXPAND EAST ALONG THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL WI
ESTABLISHED FROM THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COLD FRONT. THE 500MB
FLOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGS INTO THE PLAINS
AND MIDWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY AND PULL COLDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN WI BEHIND IT. THIS COULD LEAD TO HIGHER THAN FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST WI IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

YESTERDAY THERE WAS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ABOUT
QPF WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS PLACED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI. THIS
MORNING... THE BETTER AGREEMENT IS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND NOT
WITH THE QPF. THE WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION /PMDHMD/ FAVORED
THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/00Z UKMET FOR QPF AND EXPLAINED SOME
WEAKNESSES FOR THE 00Z ECWMF/NAM QPF.

[Money]

1004.3 L just SW of Chicago at HR 72 on the Euro. 

[Tom]

1004.3 L just SW of Chicago at HR 72 on the Euro. 

850's look warm up into Wisco...Wx Bell not loading yet

[Money]

Yeah looks like LSE to GB gets a pretty good storm. 

[gosaints]

Havent had a real november snow  in a long time.  Skeptical

[Tom]

12z Euro...looks like this is going towards a Northwoods special...develops the SLP near N IL/S MI but too warm in S WI.

[Scott26]

12Z Euro does show around 0.4 QPF for the Chicago area, but it's mostly rain.

[Money]

Scott, do you have the text output for OSH at all? 

[james1976]

Man, just keeps going further north. Does it get sampled tonight?

[Scott26]

Scott, do you have the text output for OSH at all? 

No, I have weatherbell. I was just estimating the QPF based on the precip maps.

[Money]

Man, just keeps going further north. Does it get sampled tonight?

 

Actually, the 12z euro went south from 0z. At least the main band. 

[Geos]

12z Euro...looks like this is going towards a Northwoods special...develops the SLP near N IL/S MI but too warm in S WI.

 

I have a feeling that the system will be a bit south of where that maps show due to the baroclinic zone pushing in a bit more. As far as the second low, I think the models are under doing the low level cold air being tugged down behind the first wave. 

 

The winds will be offshore at 78 hours, so that throws out the marine influence. The 850 mb's temps just need to crash a little sooner. By 84 hours the area is down near -5°C. Most locations in SE WI wouldn't have a probably getting an inch or two.

[Tom]

I have a feeling that the system will be a bit south of where that maps show due to the baroclinic zone pushing in a bit more. As far as the second low, I think the models are under doing the low level cold air being tugged down behind the first wave. 

 

The winds will be offshore at 78 hours, so that throws out the marine influence. The 850 mb's temps just need to crash a little sooner. By 84 hours the area is down near -5°C. Most locations in SE WI wouldn't have a probably getting an inch or two.

The problem I see with the baraclinic zone is it sets up farther north and the main "push" of arctic air is happening in the Plains states and once the system passes the Lakes feel it.  If the pattern upstream on Sunday by the little wave passing through N Wisco/U.P. can push that first front farther south, then yes, I can see the storm track a bit south.  You have to look up stream in order for the storm behind it to react where to go.  By tomorrow 12z runs it will be fully sampled so we shall see.

[Grizzcoat]

I'm really surprised the twin cities office didn't issue a winter storm watch. I suspect it will this afternoon. Right after the hawkeyes destroy the gophers!

U of M Graduate. Payback for all those blowouts you did to us at Kinnick North. Kinnick North is dust now!!

[Money]

What I did like is the 12z runs all shifted south from 0z (at least a little bit) and the NW trend stopped. 

[NEJeremy]

I don't think there is going to be much more of a change. We're within 36 hours of the event for most places. Also hasn't this storm been sampled by now? Before, Tom said by the 0Z runs last night it would be sampled and now I see Tom saying the 12Z runs TOMORROW?? One thing I do know is Nebraska is out of any appreciable snow on this one.

[gosaints]

I don't think there is going to be much more of a change. We're within 36 hours of the event for most places. Also hasn't this storm been sampled by now? Before, Tom said by the 0Z runs last night it would be sampled and now I see Tom saying the 12Z runs TOMORROW?? One thing I do know is Nebraska is out of the snow on this one.

Cant see it budging much further south than what the southern camp is showing right now, but I could see the EURO blinking south to catch up with the rest of the models.  MSP looks like the place to be at the moment.

[Tom]

I don't think there is going to be much more of a change. We're within 36 hours of the event for most places. Also hasn't this storm been sampled by now? Before, Tom said by the 0Z runs last night it would be sampled and now I see Tom saying the 12Z runs TOMORROW?? One thing I do know is Nebraska is out of any appreciable snow on this one.

You can see the storm hitting British Columbia at 00z Sunday, so partial sampling will be taken, but 12z Sunday you can be sure it would be fully sampled.  That's what I was trying to say....

[Geos]

The problem I see with the baraclinic zone is it sets up farther north and the main "push" of arctic air is happening in the Plains states and once the system passes the Lakes feel it.  If the pattern upstream on Sunday by the little wave passing through N Wisco/U.P. can push that first front farther south, then yes, I can see the storm track a bit south.  You have to look up stream in order for the storm behind it to react where to go.  By tomorrow 12z runs it will be fully sampled so we shall see.

 

Thanks for that further explanation. 

Some really cold air in back of that disturbance pushing eastward.

 

[Money]

18z NAM coming in way NW of 12z. Brings 40's up into SE WI 

[Money]

NAM takes the low to DBQ and then moves pretty much east into MKE area. 

[Tom]

18z NAM...some lolipop totals showing up in the U.P....skiing and snowmobile season will be getting off to an early start if this transpires.

[Money]

Winter Storm Watch posted for: .EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON...

TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...
STEVENS POINT...CRIVITZ

 

6-12 inches possible. 

[Geos]

By looking at the watches that have been issued by MPX and GRB, they are not siding with the NAM. More like a GGEM/GFS blend.

[gosaints]

MPX mentions very low confidence in where the band will set up

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I have a feeling that the system will be a bit south of where that maps show due to the baroclinic zone pushing in a bit more. As far as the second low, I think the models are under doing the low level cold air being tugged down behind the first wave. 

 

The winds will be offshore at 78 hours, so that throws out the marine influence. The 850 mb's temps just need to crash a little sooner. By 84 hours the area is down near -5°C. Most locations in SE WI wouldn't have a probably getting an inch or two.

 

No recent trends indicate that.  Not only that, but the last several days we have generally overachieved with temps vs the forecast, so sadly I'm going to have to assume some more overachieving temps, at least with this trough (that is to say, probably mid 30s vs staying below freezing for highs, which is cold either way, but Monday might hit 50 here lol.)

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Cant see it budging much further south than what the southern camp is showing right now, but I could see the EURO blinking south to catch up with the rest of the models.  MSP looks like the place to be at the moment.

 

I think MSP will be just north of the main band, Rochester to Green Bay looks to be the place to be as I see it.

[Money]

GB current thinking:

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/maps/FCST_TotalSnowAmt.png

[Money]

MKE current thinking:

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_WI.png

 

Talks about maybe a couple inches on Tuesday on the backside of the system but mentions that's uncertain at this time. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

MKE current thinking:

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_WI.png

 

Talks about maybe a couple inches on Tuesday on the backside of the system but mentions that's uncertain at this time. 

 

It's funny that the same areas that hogged all the fall severe weather (N Wisconsin esp) are the same areas that are receiving the first big snowfall of fall.  Time to share the wealth of interesting weather, Hayward and Rhinelander had some explosive thunderstorms in September and October.

[Geos]

No recent trends indicate that.  Not only that, but the last several days we have generally overachieved with temps vs the forecast, so sadly I'm going to have to assume some more overachieving temps, at least with this trough (that is to say, probably mid 30s vs staying below freezing for highs, which is cold either way, but Monday might hit 50 here lol.)

 

You're probably right given that there isn't much snow cover south of Lake Superior. Now if there was, it would be a different story. Hopefully with covering the Northwoods country with snow it will mean the next system to come along with have a strong/significant supply of cold air just to the north of itself.

In a way I wish this system would speed back up, but if there isn't snow cover to the north than the cold air supply won't be as strong.

 

18z GFS hasn't budged really at all.

 

[Geos]

This is what the new GFS thinks will fall in the Upper Great Lakes.

 

 

Northern Plains.