Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif

[WildWisconsinWeather]

The interesting thing about most of these models is the heaviest precip is well north of the low.  On that map, the low is in N Kansas, yet there is no precip close to the low center.  That may change in subsequent images.

[Money]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif

[Money]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Tom]

00z GGEM is turning out to be the beginning of a GEM!  Classic deep trough digging deep down the leeward side of the Rockies into the southern Plains while a deepening SLP ejects out of the Pan Handle into the Lower Lakes.  Now this is what I'm talking about....

[Money]

Really liking the model trends tonight...

[Tom]

That shift south of the primary low from NW Nebraska to the panhandle of TX is pretty wacky.

Not whacky when your talking about a punishing shot of arctic air, tanking AO and the driving force of the PV down into southern Canada.  This pattern is anything BUT normal and I'm expecting an extraordinary outcome.

[Tom]

Really liking the model trends tonight...

Ya buddy!  Just want to see what the Euro is showing but it looks like this baby wants to dig down south into the Pan Handle.  I just don't see the northern route, never have been on that bandwagon as I expressed my thoughts on why that wouldn't or rather, shouldn't happen.  Would like to see this baby lay down snow from the Plains to the Lakes and share the love.

[Money]

GGEM ensembles are in. Many look like the OP but a few still have that northern route, and one or two have no storm at all. Plenty of huge solutions though for many in the forum

[Tom]

Lol, 00z GGEM is showing subzero lows in NE/IA/N KS/N MO/IL/WI next week...crazy cold bias

[Money]

Liking the look of the euro at hr 96...

[clintbeed1993]

EURO is latching to the southern solution.  Has the low down in Texas hour 120.

[Money]

Should be a nice panhandle hook if the cold doesn't suppress it too much. 

[Money]

GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/GGEM all have the L in nearly the identical spot at HR 120. Pretty good consistency tonight on the southern solution. 

[Money]

smh, suppressed city on the euro lol. 

[clintbeed1993]

Suppression may end up getting the best of this thing, especially considering just how strong that Arctic plunge will be.  Definitely a good trend though.  I like our chances with the southern path.

[Tom]

smh, suppressed city on the euro lol. 

Still showing some decent post frontal snows in the arctic air.  However, the models are def showing signs of the arctic push south so we may have some more room farther.  Still many more runs to go.  Should be a fun weekend seeing what the models want to do with this system.

 

The error or problem I already see with the Euro this run is it has the main SLP in SE CO at 120HR and one piece in S MO.  This is a big difference and the response is a sheared system.  Therefore, its typical for the Euro to have difficulty pin pointing what to do with the energy as it ejects out of the Rockies.  Nonetheless, it is still showing decent snowfall.

[james1976]

Good runs for me tonight. Wow

[bud2380]

Euro shows .6" AFP for. Dubuque starting Monday morning with temp profiles below 0 for most of it. Only about .25" for cedar rapids

[bud2380]

Eps control

[WBadgersW]

Eps control image.jpg

I like the looks of this. Things have trended nicely with last night's runs.

[MarcusBeier]

Liking the latest runs for SEMI

[East Dubzz]

Interesting runs last night. Wonder if they will continue like that today.

[JSMY]

Hi All,

 

I'm a  novice storm watcher in SE Michigan. I appreciate all the info that you share. I've been following most of you on here for about a year now. Looking forward to another exciting Winter! I'm loving this last run!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Eps controlimage.jpg

 

Goodness, the GEM and two Euro models are yummy.  The GFS Ensembles are a mixed bag, some north, some a nice hit, and  a few suppressed.  MKE unfortunately is steering away from the strong low idea due to the lack of  a defined upper trough according to them.  I'm in wait and see mode.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Both ARX and MKX are saying at best an inch or two of possible accumulation, I guess they are throwing out the GEM and Euro Control.

[Madtown]

Saw that too. See who gets it right. Climo is on afd's side

[Tony]

Looking at the 06z GFS it seems that it is mostly an artic front coming through but the 1040H is still north of the border so it seems suspicious that the low coming out of the southwest is being suppressed. I may be wrong but I can definitely see the models change to a more formidable storm system in the coming days. The models are really having a hard time as we have seen with all the model mayhem the past couple days. I am guessing that we will see this happen many times this winter season as we did last year so be ready for many a sleepless nights.

[Money]

Here we go with the 12z model runs. Within nearly 84 hours now of the storm moving into the U.S.

[Tom]

Looking at the 00z Euro ensembles, many more members are seeing the idea of a streaking snow from the Plains to the Lakes from previous runs.  Nice sign to see.

[Money]

This was the 6z Parallel GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110606/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110606/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110606/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110606/gfsp_asnow_us_21.png

[Jaycee]

Phasing appears to be an issue with this storm. A split low system will generally leave us dusted here in the Plains, and will not do near as well for you folks in the Midwest either. If this storm can come together sooner and get its act together, we could be talking something along the lines of a "bowling ball", per the GGEM. Man, that'd be awesome, for all of us. Excited for the 12z GFS, hopefully it throws a curveball and sides with the GGEM. 

[Money]

Looks similar to 6z through 93. 

[Money]

Actually, looks a bit better. Precip is more lined up west to east, and low is a bit farther north and more defined. 

[Money]

Northern NE straight into Iowa/N. IL/S.WI should see a nice swath of 4-6 on this run. 

[Jaycee]

Northern NE straight into Iowa/N. IL/S.WI should see a nice swath of 4-6 on this run.

 

WOW. James/East Dubzz will love this. A nice 6-9" storm for all of the Northeastern Iowa area through 120hr. All of Northern Nebraska/Iowa get crushed with this storm. This is a good sign. If we can get a shift 50 miles south, my area could easily be in the game of those heavy totals!

[Money]

It had bigger potential but the arctic high just suppressed it. Still a nice run for many on here. 

[Tom]

Slowly but surely this thing wants to dig and phase.  Looks like to me the pieces to the puzzle are coming together.  There is enough blocking that will allow this to happen.  Remember, this aint like last year when we had a +AO/+NAO and storms just streaked on by.  This year is much different, storms will slow and dig much more than they did last year.

 

Even with Clippers, it seems they are on steroids this Autumn.  Much windier than normal and tightly packed.  Imagine what they will be like in the winter when they will be as strong or even stronger.  Could have many more hybrid Clippers than normal.

[Tony]

Looking better on this run. Long duration event shaping up it looks like.