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Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

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#101
Tom

Posted 06 November 2014 - 09:13 AM

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Amazing run on the 12z GGEM...12" plus totals in the heart of the storm.

 

James, mother nature is giving you a nice B Day gift!


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#102
Tony

Posted 06 November 2014 - 09:25 AM

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This storm looks to be gaining in strength in the modeling today. Have not had a chance to look at all of them but good to see that it is not being squashed as previous modeling indicated.



#103
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 09:30 AM

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GGEM is pretty nice 



#104
Tony

Posted 06 November 2014 - 09:43 AM

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Just wanted to mention that I saw where a system similar to this showed up in the Bering Sea about 13 days ago. Its pressure I believe was 990mb. The only reason I mention it is to see how this one performs so we can correlate it to the monster that is currently being modeled to about the same position. It's pressure is 940mb and should be hitting our area around Thanksgiving week.


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#105
Tony

Posted 06 November 2014 - 09:47 AM

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Also this:

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1055 AM EST THU NOV 06 2014

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 09 2014 - 12Z THU NOV 13 2014


...ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...

A POWERFUL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND INTO THE BERING SEA FRIDAY EVENING APPEARS TO BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW OVER
NORTH AMERICA
AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THERE ARE MANY DETAILS YET TO
BE RESOLVED--THE BOOKEND EXTREME SOLUTIONS OF THE SHARP 00Z/06
CANADIAN AND THE WAVELESS 00Z/06 ECMWF TELLING THE TALE OF
UNCERTAINTY
AS WELL AS ANY YARDSTICK. THE MOST ROBUST SIGNAL IS
THE COMMON POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE YUKON
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE OF THIS RIDGE IMPLY
TWO IMPORTANT SYNOPTIC RESULTS FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.
FIRST, A TELECONNECTION OF COMMENSURATELY LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES. SECOND, THE TENDENCY FOR UNDERCUTTING OF THE
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A POSITIVE-TILT LONGWAVE
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE DAKOTAS. THIS LATTER OUTCOME IS
THE RECIPE FOR THE BUILDING OF MASSIVE SURFACE HIGHS--A CRITICAL
COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST FOR VERY LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

RELIED ON THE 00Z/06 ECENS MEAN AND 06Z/06 GEFS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC
GUIDE--MIDDLE-GROUND AVERAGES THAT SIDESTEP THE DOMINANCE OF A
WAVE RIDING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THESE MEANS SUGGEST AT
LEAST A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES--WITH MORE FOCUSED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IF THERE IS MORE
DIGGING.

 



#106
Tony

Posted 06 November 2014 - 09:51 AM

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And this is just way too cold!

 

Allan H.

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx
 

Attached Files



#107
james1976

Posted 06 November 2014 - 09:54 AM

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I cant believe these model runs....wow! Most maps are giving me 6+. Keep it coming. Its looking more and more likely that some of us will be seeing a snowstorm :)



#108
bud2380

Posted 06 November 2014 - 09:57 AM

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The Euro has begun...



#109
james1976

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:00 AM

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Local met saying ground will be too warm for snow to accumulate.



#110
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:03 AM

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Which isn't true at all. Snow can accumulate anytime if it snows hard enough.


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#111
Madtown

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:06 AM

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How's the euro

#112
Tom

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:08 AM

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On top of that James, its supposed to be a night time storm anyway so you can be sure the snow will accumulate where it falls.  Temps in the upper 20's/low 30's will do the job.



#113
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:10 AM

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How's the euro

 

Out to HR 72 on InstantWeather maps 



#114
East Dubzz

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:10 AM

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Local met saying ground will be too warm for snow to accumulate.


Schnack or another one?

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 22.92"

August rainfall total: 4.07"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.60" (7/18)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2


#115
East Dubzz

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:11 AM

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And this is just way too cold!

Allan H.

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx


Yikes. One thing is for sure, football practice next week is gonna just suck in the cold.

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 22.92"

August rainfall total: 4.07"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.60" (7/18)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2


#116
bud2380

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:12 AM

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James, our local met is usually very skeptical of the models until about 48-72 hours out.  Even then, he doesn't really start to feel comfortable until 36 hours.  So I'm not surprised by that.  Although he usually ends up right as many times the models overblow things and he knows this so undercuts his forecast. 


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#117
East Dubzz

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:13 AM

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James, our local met is usually very skeptical of the models until about 48-72 hours out. Even then, he doesn't really start to feel comfortable until 36 hours. So I'm not surprised by that. Although he usually ends up right as many times the models overblow things and he knows this so undercuts his forecast.


This is very true. He is typically spot on with what he says. And it's understandable being so skeptic this early in the year and so much time left before this storm occurs.

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 22.92"

August rainfall total: 4.07"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.60" (7/18)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2


#118
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:14 AM

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It's fine to be skeptical, but saying that kind of stuff when you are a professional met is just wrong. 


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#119
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:14 AM

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What I love about this site is I get information about future events so much quicker than from our local NWS.  Today is the first day that our local mets. really started talking about the cold coming.  Very few, however, mentioned snow.  The ones that did said a flurry or 2 is all we can expect.  I am sure they see the same maps that the guys on here use.  



#120
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:15 AM

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ECMWF: HR 96 has a 993.9 L in Central Nebraska. 



#121
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:16 AM

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Which is about 3 MB stronger and nearly the same location as the GGEM at the same time period. 



#122
Tom

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:21 AM

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Compare the 12z Euro from yesterday, to day's run...farther west and south....

 

 

 

 

 



#123
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:21 AM

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HR 120: 1001.8 MB L near Racine. 850 MB temps are cold enough for snow right to the west and NW of the L track. 



#124
Tom

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:22 AM

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12z Euro ejects the SLP into NE IL at 120 HR>..



#125
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:23 AM

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Tom, where does it go between 96 and 120? 



#126
Tom

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:25 AM

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Wx Bell maps have not even loaded yet....very slow



#127
bud2380

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:30 AM

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Euro is dry as a bone.  That seems odd.

 

 

For Iowa City

MON 18Z 10-NOV   6.2     5.1    1006      59      36    0.00     556     551    
TUE 00Z 11-NOV   7.5     5.0    1002      74      49    0.00     555     554    
TUE 06Z 11-NOV   3.8     3.1    1005      87      60    0.01     553     549    
TUE 12Z 11-NOV   0.3    -5.6    1012      80      71    0.03     547     538    
TUE 18Z 11-NOV                                          0.00                


#128
bud2380

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:32 AM

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Nevermind, I found the snow.  It's in Wisconsin.  Below is LaCrosse

MON 12Z 10-NOV  -1.5    -7.6    1015      55      99    0.02     549     537    
MON 18Z 10-NOV  -2.5    -5.7    1013      82      99    0.26     548     538    
TUE 00Z 11-NOV  -1.6    -5.7    1011      89     100    0.35     547     538    
TUE 06Z 11-NOV  -1.7    -6.5    1011      90      98    0.22     544     535    
TUE 12Z 11-NOV  -3.1    -7.9    1014      87      97    0.10     540     529    
TUE 18Z 11-NOV  -1.4    -9.4    1016      76      97    0.05     536     523    


#129
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:33 AM

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What about MSN, OSH or MKE? Thanks in advance. 



#130
Tom

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:35 AM

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What should we digest from the 12z model runs today?  #1, looks like their is model agreement on developing a SLP in the Plains that heads into the Lakes and NOT a sheared system.  #2, track and strength still uncertain

 

 

The GFS doesnt try to phase the system until its way east which is the typical error of the model to skirt the energy out to fast to the east.



#131
East Dubzz

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:37 AM

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Interesting to see the stronger solution lately, hope that continues with more of a southerly track.

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 22.92"

August rainfall total: 4.07"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.60" (7/18)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2


#132
Tom

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:37 AM

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Nevermind, I found the snow.  It's in Wisconsin.  Below is LaCrosse

MON 12Z 10-NOV  -1.5    -7.6    1015      55      99    0.02     549     537    
MON 18Z 10-NOV  -2.5    -5.7    1013      82      99    0.26     548     538    
TUE 00Z 11-NOV  -1.6    -5.7    1011      89     100    0.35     547     538    
TUE 06Z 11-NOV  -1.7    -6.5    1011      90      98    0.22     544     535    
TUE 12Z 11-NOV  -3.1    -7.9    1014      87      97    0.10     540     529    
TUE 18Z 11-NOV  -1.4    -9.4    1016      76      97    0.05     536     523    

Looks like a juicy system for sure...over 1"qpf is well over 12" of snow....EURO/GGEM consistency



#133
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 10:38 AM

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Parallel GFS/EURO/GGEM all show 12-14+ in the heaviest bands. Within 4 days now. 



#134
Hawkeye

Posted 06 November 2014 - 11:03 AM

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The heavy snow will probably pass north of the Cedar Rapids to Chicago corridor, but I hope we can at least see something fall.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#135
Tom

Posted 06 November 2014 - 11:09 AM

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12z Euro...

 


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#136
Geos

Posted 06 November 2014 - 11:17 AM

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It will be interesting to how far the cold air dome can press this system south. 

 

As far as ground temperatures. I've seen a foot of snow stick after a week of 50s and 60s in late November before! The cold air in place now will act to cool off the top layer of the soil.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#137
Grizzcoat

Posted 06 November 2014 - 11:19 AM

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First post this young winter season-- so that is good being NOV 6th. Loved seeing the 12Z GFS run--)5"+ here in C.IA-- but I believe it's wrong. The Euro has been the most consistent and has superior physics to the GFS-- which is huge with what is transpiring around the globe (SOI index tanking etc-- PV about to get displaced and the adjustment of the seasonal jet(s).  Also--  I remind folks that 18Z and 06Z GFS/NAM DO NOT(at least last year they didn't)  ingest upper air parameters into the runs-- so take them with a grain of salt. I believe the Euro is locked in and do not see a shift of more then 50 miles N or S.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#138
Geos

Posted 06 November 2014 - 11:27 AM

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Impressive totals. Need to shave off 0.5-1.5" in parts of northern and central WI and a few inches in northern Lower MI from snow predicted this weekend.

 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#139
The Snowman

Posted 06 November 2014 - 11:41 AM

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Been watching this storm with varying opinions.

On one hand, as has been mentioned, model guidance does hold a bias to be too slow with Arctic fronts. This could eventually favor another southward shift, though with consistency with snow up in Wisconsin, I wouldn't be surprised to see that end up verifying.
Additionally, my two cents on ground temperatures, they really can wreak havoc on snow accumulations. Depending on surface temps as far out as 14 days before the event, snow can either be very difficult to come by (i.e sunny and warm weather prior to a storm), or unexpectedly easy (i.e. frost/freezes on a nightly basis, generally cloudy during the day to suppress highs). Point is, ground temps, especially this early in the season, are quite a bit more variable than they may be made out.
For the snow maps, I'll go conservative purely because the liquid and snow parts of this storm are so close to each other, as usually happens in early-season storms (good example is that sharp cut-off in the GGEM snow map).

Edit to add the massive caveats in using 10:1 ratio snow maps. Ratios will likely end up lower than 10:1; it's only November, in addition to the aforementioned rain/snow mixing concerns.

Max totals of around 10-12" in central Wisconsin will be my going call for now.

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#140
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 11:46 AM

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In regards to the ratios, it depends where you are imo. LSE has 850 MB temps on the EURO between -5 and -10 with 2M temps between -1 and -3. Closer towards the track of the low, I would agree with the lower ratios, but out towards LSE and that area on the EURO I can see 10-12:1 ratios. 



#141
Grizzcoat

Posted 06 November 2014 - 11:51 AM

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Ground temps as of last evening from the DSM NWS office--

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
545 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014

...DAILY 4 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES...

.BR DSM 1105 C DH1700/TSIRZZ
:
:ID LOCATION 4 INCH TEMP
:
CSAI4 : CASTANA : 47
DVNI4 : DAVENPORT : 51
DMXI4 : JOHNSTON : 44
DCRI4 : DECORAH : 42
ICYI4 : IOWA CITY : 44
KANI4 : KANAWHA : 46
3OI : LAMONI : M
NHUI4 : NASHUA : 46
OELI4 : OELWEIN : M
TLDI4 : TOLEDO : 42
.END

$

 

Those are 4" temps.. wont take much more cooling.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#142
The Snowman

Posted 06 November 2014 - 11:56 AM

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In regards to the ratios, it depends where you are imo. LSE has 850 MB temps on the EURO between -5 and -10 with 2M temps between -1 and -3. Closer towards the track of the low, I would agree with the lower ratios, but out towards LSE and that area on the EURO I can see 10-12:1 ratios.

Fair enough, let's dive deeper into the matter of location.
Using the ECMWF projected temperatures of a few degrees below freezing (minimum on the text chart posted above is -2.5, equivalent to ~27 degrees F). Noting that the going temperatures should range around -1.7 or so when the most precipitation falls, as that -2.5 value is a "blip" in the text, we can categorize the situation into a snow ratio table.

Using the NWS Snowfall/Meltwater table, using the left-most column for these surface temperatures, 1.00" of QPF on that text output would come out to 10.0" of snow. If you want to dig a bit deeper and favor the lower end of that temperature spectrum, maximum snowfall closer to 12" or 13" would probably be in the cards.

Snowfall table http://www.erh.noaa....-meltwater.html

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The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!   

#143
Geos

Posted 06 November 2014 - 12:06 PM

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Been watching this storm with varying opinions.

On one hand, as has been mentioned, model guidance does hold a bias to be too slow with Arctic fronts. This could eventually favor another southward shift, though with consistency with snow up in Wisconsin, I wouldn't be surprised to see that end up verifying.
 

 

Yeah I've witnessed that point of yours before. Arctic air masses like to press southwards quicker and tighten up the baroclinic zone.

It will be interesting to see how cranked up the NAM can get with this system. I can only imagine it's going to put out some insane numbers.


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#144
james1976

Posted 06 November 2014 - 12:07 PM

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Yeah, im not worried about snow not accumulating. I was just pointing out what our local met is saying. He is very conservative this far out. He does that with every system.

I am hoping for a southward shift with the Euro!

Snowman: Do you know if 18z and 6z runs have upper air parameters digested this season?



#145
Money

Posted 06 November 2014 - 12:20 PM

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Fair enough, let's dive deeper into the matter of location.
Using the ECMWF projected temperatures of a few degrees below freezing (minimum on the text chart posted above is -2.5, equivalent to ~27 degrees F). Noting that the going temperatures should range around -1.7 or so when the most precipitation falls, as that -2.5 value is a "blip" in the text, we can categorize the situation into a snow ratio table.

Using the NWS Snowfall/Meltwater table, using the left-most column for these surface temperatures, 1.00" of QPF on that text output would come out to 10.0" of snow. If you want to dig a bit deeper and favor the lower end of that temperature spectrum, maximum snowfall closer to 12" or 13" would probably be in the cards.

Snowfall table http://www.erh.noaa....-meltwater.html

 

Don't disagree with you, but in the bullseye on the euro it's showing 1.4-1.5 QPF. Using 8:1 ratios would give you 11-12 inches or so. If you use 10:1 it would be closer to 14-15.

 

We are talking about a system that is 96 hours out yet and probably going to change multiple times yet, so meh. I want to see consistency from the models in the 0z and 12z run tomorrow before getting excited. 



#146
Geos

Posted 06 November 2014 - 01:30 PM

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The end of the NAM run. Of course this will change many times!

 

nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

Henry M. at Accuweather is siding with the snow area further south.

http://www.accuweath...-video/36943053

590x593_11061547_severe1.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#147
WBadgersW

Posted 06 November 2014 - 01:54 PM

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All I need is a 50-75 mile shift South on the Euro to see a significant snow storm. Either way, I'd be happy to see 3" of snow.

#148
gabel23

Posted 06 November 2014 - 01:55 PM

gabel23

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This is coming from the all too conservative Valley NWS...........

 

IN ADDITION...AND WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW...ECMWF GENERATED MUCH LESS QPF ACROSS THE FA THAN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN. IN FACT...THE GFS AND CMC WOULD SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NRN 1/2 OR SO OF THE FA
AS COLUMN COOLS AND A DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL PRECIP BAND SETS UP.
MODEL BLEND MAY STILL BE TOO LOW WITH POPS..BUT SINCE ECMWF
REMAINED MUCH DRIER...DID NOT ADJUST POP UPWARD JUST YET.

IF WETTER GFS/CMC WOULD VERIFY COULD SEE THE NEED FOR LOWERING
TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO IN THE TUE-THU PERIOD ALTHOUGH EVEN ABSENT
POTENTIAL SNOW COVER



#149
Niko

Posted 06 November 2014 - 02:04 PM

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How does this storm look for SEMI?! Im thinking by the projected track that my area gets a rain/snow mix and possibly changing to all snow with no accumulation or maybe little accumulation. I need this baby to go a little more south.



#150
The Snowman

Posted 06 November 2014 - 02:07 PM

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Yeah, im not worried about snow not accumulating. I was just pointing out what our local met is saying. He is very conservative this far out. He does that with every system.
I am hoping for a southward shift with the Euro!
Snowman: Do you know if 18z and 6z runs have upper air parameters digested this season?

Aside from the usual aircraft OBS & such, no 6z/18z soundings will be released this winter.
Relevant to the topic, however, is that after undergoing a study (can't recall who conducted it), the 6z and 18z runs were shown to maintain a relatively similar consistency/accuracy with the 0z/12z runs.
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