Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

[Money]

Parallel GFS (12z)

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

[Tony]

Slowly but surely this thing wants to dig and phase.  Looks like to me the pieces to the puzzle are coming together.  There is enough blocking that will allow this to happen.  Remember, this aint like last year when we had a +AO/+NAO and storms just streaked on by.  This year is much different, storms will slow and dig much more than they did last year.

 

Even with Clippers, it seems they are on steroids this Autumn.  Much windier than normal and tightly packed.  Imagine what they will be like in the winter when they will be as strong or even stronger.  Could have many more hybrid Clippers than normal.

Baby steps as most would say!

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

[Tom]

Looking better on this run. Long duration event shaping up it looks like.

Hey Tony, you lived through the '76-'77 & '77-'78 era, were the storms back then phased more often than not????  I posted an article in the Long Range Winter Discussion relating to the winter of 1976-77 and the brutal start to winter that year in November.  This November is being weighted heavily on Nov 1976 and the stark similarities setting up.  CFSv2 is now showing an even colder start this November than 1976.  Just curious what type of storm systems there were back then.  I know in 1977-78 there were monster storms that hit the Lakes/OV/East. 

[Tom]

12z GFS...not bad at all...looks like a general I-80 north and south special this run...cold is pushing and winning, just like last year.  Lesson's from the past, are important to use in the future.

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110612/gfsp_asnow_us_23.png

[Money]

Big thing is that the GFS is at least showing someone getting a lot of snow. Good sign to see.

[Tom]

^ Looking more likely this storm will phase down the road with future runs.  I like this new GFS model this year.  Will be interesting to see how accurate it is this season.

[Jaycee]

^ Looking more likely this storm will phase down the road with future runs.  I like this new GFS model this year.  Will be interesting to see how accurate it is this season.

Good to hear. It's coming off as more of a timing issue as to when it does. I'd love for this thing to phase early, and strengthen beyond that point so we can see that healthy path of 6" from OMA to LOT. Just need this thing to dig a tad further south and that could easily come to fruition.

[Tom]

Good to hear. It's coming off as more of a timing issue as to when it does. I'd love for this thing to phase early, and strengthen beyond that point so we can see that healthy path of 6" from OMA to LOT. Just need this thing to dig a tad further south and that could easily come to fruition.

Absolutely, the good thing we are seeing since last night runs is more consistency in the models.  Let's see what the GGEM/EURO have to say.

[Money]

UKMET:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[Money]

GGEM:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_100.gif

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif

[Money]

GGEM has to be showing at least 10+ this run in the snowiest areas looking at the b/w maps at least. 28 MM is 1.10 QPF plus there was more before that. 

[Money]

Actually, the parallel GFS and GGEM are nearly identical for the entire storm. Will be very interesting to see how it does this winter. It's supposed to be the "upgraded" version of the GFS. 

[Tom]

GGEM has to be showing at least 10+ this run in the snowiest areas looking at the b/w maps at least. 28 MM is 1.10 QPF plus there was more before that. 

The evolution of a monster snow storm somewhere in the region begins...I'll post the maps when they load.

[CentralNebWeather]

Another 50-75 miles further south would be awesome for Central Nebraska.  I liked Tom's comment about this not being 2013 when things went by, now they should dig farther.  Still quite a few days for this to evolve.  Love the new maps.

[Tony]

Hey Tony, you lived through the '76-'77 & '77-'78 era, were the storms back then phased more often than not????  I posted an article in the Long Range Winter Discussion relating to the winter of 1976-77 and the brutal start to winter that year in November.  This November is being weighted heavily on Nov 1976 and the stark similarities setting up.  CFSv2 is now showing an even colder start this November than 1976.  Just curious what type of storm systems there were back then.  I know in 1977-78 there were monster storms that hit the Lakes/OV/East. 

Tom, not having access to the modeling that we have today I could not tell you if the storms back then phased more often then not but I can tell you that the storms just kept coming. It seems like every 2-3 days we would have snow whether it was 2"-4" or 4"+ but it did snow often. Back then winter storm warnings, from what I can remember, was from anything over 4" so it seemed like we were always in a winter storm warning. The cold just seemed to last forever. After every storm it got brutally cold which made it that much more difficult to be outside and also to keep the roads clean. The other thing I remember was that it seemed to be a very windy winter so brutal wind chills to top it all off. As I mentioned in other posts we were shoveling roofs back then to keep them from collapsing from the weight of all the heavy snow. This leads me to believe that the storms back then were laden with plenty of moisture so I can only assume that the STJ was a big player as well those winters.

 

Looking to the start of this fall it has been quite windy so that is something to keep in mind. It has also been a chilly/cold start to fall which was the way it started back in the late 70's. We will have to see how it correlates to this winter but definitely similarities are showing up.

 

I also read the article you posted and it mentioned the displacement of the polar vortex, warm waters in the Pacific and a strong blocking high. This surely points to everything that is starting to take place early on this season which is exciting but can also be a dangerous situation shaping up this coming winter. I say dangerous because weather the past few years have been much stronger and more severe than in the past and I can see this winter exceeding in strength of snowfall and brutal cold then the winters of the late 70's.

[Tom]

Amazing run on the 12z GGEM...12" plus totals in the heart of the storm.

 

James, mother nature is giving you a nice B Day gift!

[Tony]

This storm looks to be gaining in strength in the modeling today. Have not had a chance to look at all of them but good to see that it is not being squashed as previous modeling indicated.

[Money]

GGEM is pretty nice 

[Tony]

Just wanted to mention that I saw where a system similar to this showed up in the Bering Sea about 13 days ago. Its pressure I believe was 990mb. The only reason I mention it is to see how this one performs so we can correlate it to the monster that is currently being modeled to about the same position. It's pressure is 940mb and should be hitting our area around Thanksgiving week.

[Tony]

Also this:

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1055 AM EST THU NOV 06 2014

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 09 2014 - 12Z THU NOV 13 2014


...ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...

A POWERFUL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND INTO THE BERING SEA FRIDAY EVENING APPEARS TO BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW OVER
NORTH AMERICAAT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THERE ARE MANY DETAILS YET TO
BE RESOLVED--THE BOOKEND EXTREME SOLUTIONS OF THE SHARP 00Z/06
CANADIAN AND THE WAVELESS 00Z/06 ECMWF TELLING THE TALE OF
UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS ANY YARDSTICK. THE MOST ROBUST SIGNAL IS
THE COMMON POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE YUKON
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE OF THIS RIDGE IMPLY
TWO IMPORTANT SYNOPTIC RESULTS FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.
FIRST, A TELECONNECTION OF COMMENSURATELY LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES. SECOND, THE TENDENCY FOR UNDERCUTTING OF THE
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A POSITIVE-TILT LONGWAVE
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE DAKOTAS. THIS LATTER OUTCOME IS
THE RECIPE FOR THE BUILDING OF MASSIVE SURFACE HIGHS--A CRITICAL
COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST FOR VERY LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

RELIED ON THE 00Z/06 ECENS MEAN AND 06Z/06 GEFS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC
GUIDE--MIDDLE-GROUND AVERAGES THAT SIDESTEP THE DOMINANCE OF A
WAVE RIDING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THESE MEANS SUGGEST AT
LEAST A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES--WITH MORE FOCUSED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IF THERE IS MORE
DIGGING.
 

[Tony]

And this is just way too cold!

 

Allan H.

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx
 

[james1976]

I cant believe these model runs....wow! Most maps are giving me 6+. Keep it coming. Its looking more and more likely that some of us will be seeing a snowstorm

[bud2380]

The Euro has begun...

[james1976]

Local met saying ground will be too warm for snow to accumulate.

[Money]

Which isn't true at all. Snow can accumulate anytime if it snows hard enough.

[Madtown]

How's the euro

[Tom]

On top of that James, its supposed to be a night time storm anyway so you can be sure the snow will accumulate where it falls.  Temps in the upper 20's/low 30's will do the job.

[Money]

How's the euro

 

Out to HR 72 on InstantWeather maps 

[East Dubzz]

Local met saying ground will be too warm for snow to accumulate.

Schnack or another one?

[East Dubzz]

And this is just way too cold!

 

Allan H.

 

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx

 

Yikes. One thing is for sure, football practice next week is gonna just suck in the cold.

[bud2380]

James, our local met is usually very skeptical of the models until about 48-72 hours out.  Even then, he doesn't really start to feel comfortable until 36 hours.  So I'm not surprised by that.  Although he usually ends up right as many times the models overblow things and he knows this so undercuts his forecast. 

[East Dubzz]

James, our local met is usually very skeptical of the models until about 48-72 hours out. Even then, he doesn't really start to feel comfortable until 36 hours. So I'm not surprised by that. Although he usually ends up right as many times the models overblow things and he knows this so undercuts his forecast.

This is very true. He is typically spot on with what he says. And it's understandable being so skeptic this early in the year and so much time left before this storm occurs.

[Money]

It's fine to be skeptical, but saying that kind of stuff when you are a professional met is just wrong. 

[CentralNebWeather]

What I love about this site is I get information about future events so much quicker than from our local NWS.  Today is the first day that our local mets. really started talking about the cold coming.  Very few, however, mentioned snow.  The ones that did said a flurry or 2 is all we can expect.  I am sure they see the same maps that the guys on here use.  

[Money]

ECMWF: HR 96 has a 993.9 L in Central Nebraska.