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Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Tom
Tom

Hey Guys, doesn't it seem like we are missing something here at the forum???  It's been about 4 months since Dominic Rocco passed away and its def going to feel a little different this year without hi

Tom
Tom

It's awesome to see everyone from the Plains to the Lakes light up this board.  Each person has their own opinion and of course would like to be in the accumulating snow band.  I'd personally love to

Geos
Geos

Yes it is a bit different around here without Dominic! Whenever there was significant snow system approaching he would catch every model run it seemed! He'd post in the middle of the night and then be

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Bastardi was getting at that in one of his discussions yesterday. The trough and ULL is placed too far east and will correct west. The low in Quebec or Ontario will acts to drag the cold air down in front of the Plains low. 

Probably good idea to pay attn to that feature...also, how many times have we seen the correction "west" with the models. 

 

@ Money, those GFS Parallel maps look good.  Looks like a Wisco special in the works.  It looks like it did jog a tad south this run.  Share some love!

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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NW burbs of Milwaukee would get a good dumping on the 18z parallel. I have a feeling Madison is going to do pretty good on accumulation with this system. They usually do early in the season.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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This was from the Sioux Falls NWO- it looks like they prefer the Canadian/GFS vs the Euro at this point

 

CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMPERATURES OFF
OF THE THREE MODELS...IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE MOSTLY SNOW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SIOUX CITY WHO
MIGHT BE A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THUS
MAKING SNOW TOTALS A QUESTION MARK THERE. THE ECMWF DOES ALSO
KEEP MOST OF THE DECENT PRECIP POTENTIAL CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...WHEREAS THE GEM GLOBAL AND GFS KIND OF SLOWLY SHIFT THE
MAIN QPF BAND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WHICH IS PROBABLY BETTER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING.
THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS  IS STRONG SUGGESTING A BANDED
EVENT...THAT SAID THE ECMWF IS RATHER FRAGMENTED AND DISJOINTED
WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC OUTPUT AND HARD TO FOLLOW. THE GFS AND GEM
GLOBAL ARE LIKELY BETTER...OOZING THE BAND SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS ALWAYS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL THERE BE. CURRENTLY AT THIS EARLY HOUR...THE BEST STAB IS NOT
TO RULE OUT 2 TO 4 INCHES...AT LEAST ON THE GRASSY SURFACES. WITH
THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND WE HAVE HAD DUE TO A VERY MILD
OCTOBER...THE ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVEMENT COULD BE REAL HARD TO
ASCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY IF THE SNOW RATE IS NOT ALL THAT HEAVY.

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The Snowman Collaborator

The Snowman

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Did anyone use/Does anyone still use the old cyclone track charts off the EMC? Been using these things for 5 or so years now- so simplistic (and pretty messy), but still great tools for tracking storms.

 

Here's the CMC ENS from the 12z cycle, note the relatively large spread/high uncertainty.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.ceperts.2014110612.east_coast.single.png

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Scott26 Newbie

Scott26

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Based on Climatology and Euro/GGEM consensus a Minnesota/Wisconsin special is probably the way to go. The GFS tends to have a progressive bias and will likely continue to correct north. Unless the arctic front can come earlier and really push this storm south I don't see a southern solution happening.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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I'd say the northern 1/3rd of IA/S WI/C WI/S MN are in the prime zone right now for accumulating snowfall.  C IA/N/IL/S MI is questionable at the moment.

 

 

I found it kind of funny that Jim Ramsey of WGN chose the latest GFS snowfall map to show on air!

 

This high pressure that is coming down in abnormally strong for November, so I wouldn't be surprise if the snow gets pushed further south with respect to where climatology says it "should" go this time of season.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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ARX (La Crosse) is favoring areas south of I-94 for heaviest snows.

 

 
Accumulating Snow Looking Likely - Monday - Monday Night

A low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the area for Monday and Monday night.  At this time, the heaviest snow looks to be south of Interstate 94.  While there is certainty that this snow will occur, the amounts and location of the heaviest snow is not.  Those with travel plans during this time period should monitor the weather closely through the weekend.

 

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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WildWisconsinWeather Newbie

WildWisconsinWeather

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Local met is now talking accumulating snow. Earlier today he said it wouldnt accumulate. Lol

 

I wouldn't worry too much about ground temps, especially in the Great Lakes region (the mild air of October didn't make it quite to the Lakes, and locally, the next few days are going to be in the 40s).  Nebraska and South Dakota may be a different story, as Omaha looks to be in the 50s and even 60s the next few days.  The least of my worries here, though, more concerned about track and time of day (which also looks good, seems to peak in intensity Monday evening into the overnight).

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WildWisconsinWeather Newbie

WildWisconsinWeather

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

 

These precip type maps scare me, they make it appear the only way to get a good snow to accumulate with this system is to be on a lucky 'snow island'.  I really hope the soundings on the GFS are warm biased, because if not, I'm not seeing too many 8-10" amounts anywhere.  The Euro soundings for La Crosse looked good, safely all snow, but not so on the GFS.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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These precip type maps scare me, they make it appear the only way to get a good snow to accumulate with this system is to be on a lucky 'snow island'.  I really hope the soundings on the GFS are warm biased, because if not, I'm not seeing too many 8-10" amounts anywhere.  The Euro soundings for La Crosse looked good, safely all snow, but not so on the GFS.

 

I was noting those "snow islands" too. Looks odd given the snowfall maps. Could be a bug in the new model that needs to be worked out.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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WildWisconsinWeather Newbie

WildWisconsinWeather

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I was noting those "snow islands" too. Looks odd given the snowfall maps. Could be a bug in the new model that needs to be worked out.

 

True, the strangest part about it is a lot of times those islands are on the southern side of the deformation zone, closer to the low and the warm air.  I would like to think if the heaviest precip comes through during the overnight hours, and the low passes at least 60 to 90 miles south of here, dynamic cooling along with the nocturnal hours would be enough to keep rain from seeping in.

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Scott26 Newbie

Scott26

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True, the strangest part about it is a lot of times those islands are on the southern side of the deformation zone, closer to the low and the warm air.  I would like to think if the heaviest precip comes through during the overnight hours, and the low passes at least 60 to 90 miles south of here, dynamic cooling along with the nocturnal hours would be enough to keep rain from seeping in.

I truly wouldn't worry about it. Take a look at the 850 mb temps on the Euro and GFS if you didn't already. This storm will be pulling down arctic air and north of the low pressure should be all snow. These maps are wacky. Thermally there isn't going to be much of an issue at all. Ground temps are the only limiting factor, but will easily overcome by heavy snow.

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Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

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Unless models flip the script, I think we're pretty much out of the mix here on seeing totals over 3". I really really really hope we get some flakes flying as a bare minimum. If we get no snow, and a dang wind advisory with temps in the upper 20's, I'm going to be incredibly frustrated. Really hope models dig this sucker further south tonight.

 

Also, my folks live near Rochester, MN. Man, talk about a bullseye on most of these models! They could easily be flirting with 12"+ up there.

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clintbeed1993 Enthusiast

clintbeed1993

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Unless models flip the script, I think we're pretty much out of the mix here on seeing totals over 3". I really really really hope we get some flakes flying as a bare minimum. If we get no snow, and a dang wind advisory with temps in the upper 20's, I'm going to be incredibly frustrated. Really hope models dig this sucker further south tonight.

 

Also, my folks live near Rochester, MN. Man, talk about a bullseye on most of these models! They could easily be flirting with 12"+ up there.

 

Oh you know Nebraska can't get the snow.  It will either miss North or South.  This time it will be North.  I wouldn't be surprised if the next one hits Kansas.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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It's awesome to see everyone from the Plains to the Lakes light up this board.  Each person has their own opinion and of course would like to be in the accumulating snow band.  I'd personally love to see this system get wide enough and strong enough to give everyone some snow.  It would be a great start to this winter season.

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