Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

[Tom]

Wow, seem like the 00z Euro took a big jog south....takes SLP down to the Pan Handle @ 00z Tuesday....

[Money]

Euro looks really suppressed lol 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Wow, seem like the 00z Euro took a big jog south....takes SLP down to the Pan Handle @ 00z Tuesday....

 

Well, that's a step more towards the UKMET and probably more south and west than the GEM, also slower.

[Tom]

Looks like an over running even this run on the Euro with no defined SLP....waiting for Wx Bell maps to load...

[Tom]

Well, that's a step more towards the UKMET and probably more south and west than the GEM, also slower.

Ya, looks like that and the GFS Par

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Looks like an over running even this run on the Euro with no defined SLP....waiting for Wx Bell maps to load...

 

Isn't that what this looks like with most of the models, it certainly isn't a sharp cutter.

[Money]

12z euro today looked like yesterday's 12z and the 0z euro tonight looks like the 0z run from yesterday. Seems like it's going back and forth. 

[Money]

Well, that's a step more towards the UKMET and probably more south and west than the GEM, also slower.

 

Yeah, UKIE took the L up into Michigan though at HR 120 while the Euro really doesn't have a low at that point. 

[Tom]

Isn't that what this looks like with most of the models, it certainly isn't a sharp cutter.

The GGEM and GFS Par want to develop a wound up SLP, this is def a flip flop run on the Euro most likely unless its just holding too much energy back in the Rockies (which is a common error) which in result has a sheared system.

[Money]

The GGEM and GFS Par want to develop a wound up SLP, this is def a flip flop run on the Euro most likely unless its just holding too much energy back in the Rockies (which is a common error) which in result has a sheared system.

 

Euro was really wound up at HR 72 and 96 (HR 72 had a 993 L developing) and 996 L in S. OK at 96. 

[Tom]

Still manages to dump Wisco snow though!  LOL

[Money]

How......

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Euro was really wound up at HR 72 and 96 (HR 72 had a 993 L developing) and 996 L in S. OK at 96. 

 

Def sounds like the UKIE then, as it had a decent low in the panhandle, but by the time it made it to the GL was down to 1007mb or so.

[Tom]

How......

[Money]

Oh, so there is a low up near STL. That makes more sense then, on the IW maps it just looks like it's way down south. 

[clintbeed1993]

This system isn't making any sense to me.  Shouldn't the snow be further south?  This whole thing just looks strange on models.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

This system isn't making any sense to me.  Shouldn't the snow be further south?  This whole thing just looks strange on models.

 

I don't think it's the low that's causing the snow to break out as much as the front (frontogenesis snows moreso).

[Money]

I don't think it's the low that's causing the snow to break out as much as the front (frontogenesis snows moreso).

 

And most models seem to be targeting S. WI/N. IA/C/S WI with that. Good model consensus tonight with 6+ for those areas  

[WBadgersW]

Well, both the Euro and GFS show me getting significant snow Monday. I'm not liking being in the bullseye this far out.

[Money]

There was some really juicy GFS ensembles and nearly all of the members are in agreement with the OP in terms of the placement. At least 7 of the members showed .75 QPF + in the heaviest band with a few over 1.00 QPF

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_6z/f108.gif

[Money]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f90.gif

[Madtown]

Well hoping for a 50 mi shift south but as of now looking good.

[Geos]

Thought I'd post the GGEM snowfall map from last night.

 

 

6z GFS

 

 

 

If anything the models are shifting the storm slightly south now.

[CentralNebWeather]

Please come south.  We have to overcome the Nebraska bubble (dome) or whatever we call it.  I wish I was as positive of a person as Tom is.  Nebraskans will feel slighted until one of these storms actually hits us.  NWS Hastings is really hitting the upcoming cold hard.  See Below.

 

AGAIN FOCUSING SPECIFICALLY ON GRAND ISLAND AS A PROXY FOR
THE CWA...ONE HAS TO GO BACK 14 YEARS TO 2000 TO FIND A TRULY
NOTABLE COLD SNAP THAT STARTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER
AND THEN CONTINUED INTO THE LATTER HALF AS WELL. DURING THAT
MONTH...AN INCREDIBLE 18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS BETWEEN THE 6TH-23RD
CLIMBED NO HIGHER THAN 38 DEGREES...AND 7 OF THE 18 DAYS ONLY
REACHED THE 20S. IN THE END...NOV. 2000 FINISHED AS THE 3RD-
COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD OUT OF 119 YEARS. SO IN CLOSING...ITS
CERTAINLY TOO SOON TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT THIS NOV. WILL END UP
AS TOP-10 COLDEST ON RECORD MATERIAL (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RATHER
MILD START)...BUT ONE THING WE CAN SAY IS THAT THE COLD SNAP
STARTING NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WE/VE SEEN
DURING EARLY-MID NOVEMBER IN AT LEAST 14 YEARS.

[Niko]

WOW....what a difference in my forecast. From rain/snowshowers yesterday to potential accumulating snowfall possible Monday and Tuesday. As a matter of fact, my local met just said that we have to watch a piece of energy coming down from Alaska and possibly phasing with the arctic frontal boundary because chances are he said that it might happen and if it does, heavy snow will blanket SEMI. Incredible changes. Boy, does it get brutal after that, my highs are in the low 30s and lows in the teens and if I get the snowstorm, then I would imagine that my temps are going to be even colder. What a November this is shaping up to be.

[Money]

Thought I'd post the GGEM snowfall map from last night.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/PR_000-120_0000.gif

 

6z GFS

 

6zGFS_110714.png

 

If anything the models are shifting the storm slightly south now.

 

Meh, not really. 0z and 6z GFS were pretty much the same, if not slightly north. Euro/GGEM went slightly south but meh

[Money]

SREF Plumes (note that it's still snowing in most areas after this point)

 

LSE: 

 

Mean: 5.83

High: 14.64

Low: 0.00

 

MKE:

 

Mean: 1.56

High: 6.31

Low: 0.00

 

MSN:

 

Mean: 3.29

High: 12.31

Low: 0.00

 

DBQ: 

 

Mean: 1.57

High: 7.65

Low: 0.00

 

RCH:

 

Mean: 6.04

High: 13.79

Low: 0.13

 

UGN:

 

Mean: 0.70

High: 3.36

Low: 0.00

[Money]

12z NAM HR 75 has a 999.9 MB L in SE Nebraska. Same as 6z, but a tad stronger. 

 

1001.7 near where the IL/IA/MO border meet. Nice hit for S. MN/N. IA/WI again

[East Dubzz]

The weirdness of the snow placement compared to the SLP some have mentioned probably has to do with the ULL.

[NEJeremy]

12Z NAM really nails northern Iowa. Showing 1" of qpf through 0Z Tuesday and still snowing hard

[The Snowman]

12z GFS has initialized.

[Tom]

Expect to see some shifting in the models by Sunday 00z runs when the piece of energy begins to enter the Balloon network as the system will be hitting British Columbia by then.  I still believe N IA/S/C WI get the brunt of this system.  Anyone 20 or 30 miles south of where this arctic front lays down is still in the game to see accumulating snow just because the thermal boundary will be so tight.  Cold air is very dense and it's origin may work some magic.  I have seen times before with systems like this down near the Pan Handle when deep troughs form and Amarillo, TX is getting clobbered while 10 miles away its still raining.  Crazy setup we have here.

[Money]

12z GFS is about 3 MB stronger than 6z at HR 60.

 

No idea what's up with the Parallel GFS. Not loading at all.

[Money]

GFS is coming north/stronger. 

[Madtown]

Makes sense based on climo

[Money]

LSE-GB special this run. 50 degree mark gets up to Chicago. 

[Geos]

12z GFS looks odd given the low further south and the precipitation further north.

12z NAM would be promising if it went out further. Buries James.

[Money]

It's pretty light on precip as well, even though it still shows 8-9 inches of snow in the heaviest band. 

[Geos]

Shown on NBC 5 this morning.

 

[Niko]

Now, Noaa agrees with some local mets here.

 

This from Noaa:

 

COLD AIR LOOKS TO BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WE
REMAIN IN A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN NEXT WEEK...AND REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR ARRIVE. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL....ESPECIALLY BY MID-WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
30S. WILL NEED TO WATCH GULF OF ALASKA ENERGY ARRIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PHASE WITH
SOME ARCTIC ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD. LATEST RUNS OF THE
EURO/GFS/GEM ALL TAKE THIS ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
MONDAY...SPINNING UP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OR FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD PLACE DEFORMATION
SNOW/RAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW MODELS
PLACE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WHILE THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...IT IS STILL EARLY WITH BOTH
PIECES OF ENERGY BEING POORLY SAMPLED BY MODELS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER.

 

Let the fun begin. WoooHooooo!!!!!!