Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

[Money]

GGEM:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif

[Tom]

12z GFS has 2 pieces of energy again this run, splits the first out into N MO and 2nd down into the Pan Handle.  Would like to see this energy go out into the Plains in one piece.

[Tom]

Money, does the 12z GGEM look like the SLP went a bit south this run just NW of Kansas city??

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/233_100.gif

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_100.gif

 

Splits the energy into two pieces like the GFS.

[Snowshoe]

Nice write up by the Chicago NWS office.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=105107&source=0

[Money]

HR 84:

 

12z NAM: 1001.7 NW of STL

12z GFS: 1004.0 NW of STL

12z GGEM: 1000.0 S. OK/N. TX

[Money]

UKMET

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

[Geos]

UK met has the ULL too far west imo.

[Tom]

If the 12z Euro has the SLP keep most of its energy digging south into the southern Plains and not shearing off a piece to fast to the east, this storm may become neg tilt over the next day or so.  Something to watch with the HP off the east coast.

[Tom]

00z Euro ensembles....

[Money]

That's all the ensembles averaged out right ?

[Geos]

00z Euro ensembles....

Nice. Thought maybe the 6" area might extend back to the west and cover more territory than it does.

[Tom]

That's all the ensembles averaged out right ?

Ya, the Control spit out one of the lessor amounts I've seen compared to previous runs as well.  Ensembles showing a more broader coverage possibly suggesting a healthier system.  Also, many more members showing the snow covering S IA/N IL.

[james1976]

Wow, that GFS run sucked. Not surprised. Still a few days off.

[Money]

Parallel gfs is a great hit for Wisco

[Madtown]

Maps?

[Money]

On my phone but it gives most of S WI .75-1 qpf all snow

[Money]

Euro looks pretty good at 96

[bud2380]

Euro slams the twin cities

[Money]

What about in central Wisconsin

[bud2380]

Only about .2" qpf for Madison. What other cities?

[bud2380]

I only have text output right now

[Money]

Osh

[Tom]

On my phone but it gives most of S WI .75-1 qpf all snow

That's not right....a piece of energy creates some overriding snows way up north near Hayward/MSP, then it seems the 2 pieces of energy down near OK/MO merge and unite spinning up a lower lakes cutter.  A MUCH different run and something I was thinking would happen as this run tries to spin up a healthier system near C IL up into lower MI.  Model mayhem will continue.... 

[Money]

I was talking about the parallel gfs not the euro

[Tom]

The thoughts of that energy diving down into the Pan Handle always caught my eye and where I see the 12z Euro going is something to monitor over the next couple days.  We could be seeing a Pan Handle hook in the making and this could become something nice.

[bud2380]

OSH

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH    LAT=  43.98 LON=  -88.55 ELE=   807                                            12Z NOV07                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK FRI 12Z 07-NOV   2.1    -7.5    1022      69       2    0.00     557     540    FRI 18Z 07-NOV   4.8    -5.7    1018      54      77    0.00     558     544    SAT 00Z 08-NOV   5.0     1.3    1012      58      85    0.00     556     546    SAT 06Z 08-NOV   4.2     0.7    1007      79      99    0.03     550     545    SAT 12Z 08-NOV   5.3    -4.3    1007      80      67    0.02     545     540    SAT 18Z 08-NOV   4.0    -7.8    1012      56       5    0.00     544     534    SUN 00Z 09-NOV   3.3    -7.7    1013      52      55    0.00     542     531    SUN 06Z 09-NOV   1.8    -7.3    1013      60      72    0.00     541     530    SUN 12Z 09-NOV   2.5    -5.1    1010      67      99    0.00     540     532    SUN 18Z 09-NOV   2.5    -3.8    1009      85      97    0.05     542     535    MON 00Z 10-NOV   4.0    -4.0    1008      80      74    0.01     545     538    MON 06Z 10-NOV   2.9    -2.6    1009      81      85    0.01     546     539    MON 12Z 10-NOV   1.5    -2.7    1011      90      98    0.02     550     541    MON 18Z 10-NOV   1.8    -1.4    1009      94      76    0.10     552     544    TUE 00Z 11-NOV   1.6    -3.1    1010      90      64    0.06     553     545    TUE 06Z 11-NOV  -0.6    -4.3    1013      87      65    0.09     553     543    TUE 12Z 11-NOV  -2.0    -6.1    1018      80      79    0.03     552     538    TUE 18Z 11-NOV  -3.1    -8.9    1021      83      99    0.07     549     533    WED 00Z 12-NOV  -3.5   -12.3    1024      77      97    0.11     545     526    WED 06Z 12-NOV  -6.5   -13.6    1026      81     100    0.01     540     520    

[bud2380]

Iowa City - could sneak out an inch or so.  That secondary band being developed on the Euro is intriguing. 

TUE 12Z 11-NOV   0.1     0.8    1014      71      76    0.02     555     544    TUE 18Z 11-NOV  -1.8    -5.3    1020      70      97    0.08     551     536    WED 00Z 12-NOV  -1.7    -9.6    1025      60      66    0.04     549     530

[Tom]

 

Iowa City - could sneak out an inch or so.  That secondary band being developed on the Euro is intriguing. 

TUE 12Z 11-NOV   0.1     0.8    1014      71      76    0.02     555     544    TUE 18Z 11-NOV  -1.8    -5.3    1020      70      97    0.08     551     536    WED 00Z 12-NOV  -1.7    -9.6    1025      60      66    0.04     549     530

How quickly things can change, right???  I never lost hope about that energy deep down south.  We are still 4 days away from that second piece of energy developing and alot of time to see the models figure out what happens to that energy.  I like the way this is going.

[bud2380]

Yep, I've seen storms do that before so I wouldn't be surprised if something develops.

[Geos]

The thoughts of that energy diving down into the Pan Handle always caught my eye and where I see the 12z Euro going is something to monitor over the next couple days.  We could be seeing a Pan Handle hook in the making and this could become something nice.

 

That would be a way to get this event to be a "share the wealth" type. It would funny if there would be two waves and the second one ends up being stronger or about the same!

 

The ULL and strength of the Arctic high is playing havoc with the models right now.

[Tom]

That would be a way to get this event to be a "share the wealth" type. It would funny if there would be two waves and the second one ends up being stronger or about the same!

 

The ULL and strength of the Arctic high is playing havoc with the models right now.

Not only that, but the models have an extremely difficult time trying to figure out what to do with the energy when it crosses the Rockies.  Along with that fiasco, you have an extremely powerful arctic front sliding down the east side of the Rockies.  Put 2 and 2 together, model mayhem is the result.  That's why I said earlier that the 00z Sunday runs will be monitored closely as the energy will begin to enter the balloon network and get better data.

 

Having said that, the development on the 12z Euro run is fascinating not just bc it is showing a stark difference from previous runs but its something the CFS/CFSv2 have been showing 3 weeks ago on the potential for many pan handle hook type systems to open November.  Here we are with the model (albeit just 1 run) starting to show it.  Secondly, the Euro ensembles keep expanding the snow chances farther south each run which leads you to believe folks south of the I-80 are not out of the woods just yet.  Lets see where the 18z GFS run takes us.

[Madtown]

Well that last run looks like last year snow north and south east and I shoot the middle. Same pattern same results.

[Money]

18z NAM is way NW.

[Money]

1002.6 L over the WI/IL border towards Kenosha. S. MN gets 12+ and then 6-10 into Central and northern WI 

[Madtown]

Game over fun while it lasted.

[Jaycee]

Game over fun while it lasted.

Game over??? Bro, first off, a ways out yet, and your within the zone where it can shift. Second, it's November 7th!! Atleast you're likely to see accumulation. We could get dusted out here, and look to be right in the middle of the polar vortex. Long range models look baller, you'll get nailed in mad town before you know it!

[Geos]

Typical amped up NAM run. 

 

We're going to see a lot of wobbles in the next 36 hours for sure.

[james1976]

Not good runs for me today but thats ok. Few days away yet and its early November.