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February 2014 Observations and Discussion


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Only 7 days left till February. 

 

What will the final month of winter bring us all!?

 

First 5 day chunk of February, temperature departures. SE ridge starts heating up things!

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I think there will be at least 2 significant shots of arctic air this month.  The first coming the 1st week and the second the following week.  Both more than likely coming after some big storms hit the region.  February is likely going to be a very snowy month around these parts as the LRC pattern has at least 2 or 3 bigger storms hitting the region.  As for temps, I'm guessing we will average out about 4 or 5 degrees below normal.

 

The 1st of a parade of storms we have to start monitoring already showing up for next weekend.  Feb is going to be a fun time tracking these storm systems.

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Strong baroclinic zone develops the first full week of February.

 

CMC

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Been reading that this month will continue to be brutal as far as temps go, but the only difference this month is there will be many more moisture laden storm systems traversing the nation.  With a tanking WPO and high latitude blocking, cold air will be entrenched over the eastern 2/3rd's of the Nation.  By the end of this month, some cities will be buried with snow and signs pointing that the Midwest/GL region will be hit the hardest.

 

In fact, there are similarities that this winter is similar to '78/'79 and February 1979 was down right brutal with major snows and cold.  It will be exciting to see this month unfold in the coming days.

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As Tom alluded to, the LRC is looking quite favorable for our region as we head into February. Naturally, slight shifts and other deviations from the past cycle in mid-December can be anticipated, but the general feel of the mid/late December pattern ought to stay in place. I'm somewhat concerned about suppression with these storms, mainly for the early February system(s?), in the event the polar vortex wants to stick around in Canada. Other than that, I'm liking our chances for February.

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Snowman, I believe that with a decent SE Ridge, Chicago seems to be in a safe spot for seeing all snow and not necessarily worry about rain/snow line.  The LRC also had the systems track to our south as well.  Like you said, there will be some deviation in track but I don't think it will affect us to much...maybe downstate.

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I think the departure this month will be higher than January. Thinking there will be Arctic air intrusions, but they will stay shorter periods of time. (SE ridge should prevent departures of over 5° east of a line from Green Bay to Kansas City roughly) Thinking it will be a snowy month for the entire northern part of the nation with wild temperature swings, especially east of the Mid and Upper Mississippi River Valley.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Definitely a much more organized system this run. Let's hope the trend continues in future runs.  This could become a monster.  Temps in low 20's and loads of moisture with this system.  Snow ratios would be 12:1 up to 15:1.  Here we go boys and girls!

 

Rough estimate looks like .60+ for ORD...

 

 

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Snowman, I believe that with a decent SE Ridge, Chicago seems to be in a safe spot for seeing all snow and not necessarily worry about rain/snow line.  The LRC also had the systems track to our south as well.  Like you said, there will be some deviation in track but I don't think it will affect us to much...maybe downstate.

Agreed. EPS Control snow thru Hour 360 may be a testament to the stormy pattern ahead. Highlights big storm here in IL February 4-6, which fits in relatively OK with a December 14, 2013 system that also impacted us (image of sfc, 500mb map attached as well).

eps_t2m_snow_c_conus_61.png

12.14combo.jpg

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I liked the extended EURO run a lot better. Not much in the way of below zero temperatures beyond Wednesday except maybe one or two mornings near that mark.

 

The snow prospects were not bad either.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Definitely a much more organized system this run. Let's hope the trend continues in future runs.  This could become a monster.  Temps in low 20's and loads of moisture with this system.  Snow ratios would be 12:1 up to 15:1.  Here we go boys and girls!

 

Rough estimate looks like .60+ for ORD...

 

And it's only 5-6 days away to. Love the moisture from pacific feeds into this. Looks like a solid plausible winter storm for part of Plains and into the Lakes region later next week POSSIBLY.

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Below normal, but it has a different look.

 

 

 

I think this is your Month Nebraska! (western Iowa and Kansas too)

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Take a look at the loads of moisture the 00z GGEM is showing heading into the 1st week of February.  CFS was latching on to this idea a while ago producing tons of moisture in our region.  Huge temperature gradients this month and storms coming out of the SW will set the stage for juicy systems.  It's going to be a fun week tracking these systems.

 

 

 

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