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February 2014 Observations and Discussion


Geos

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Nearly 2.0" qpf over the next 10 days for ORD...incredible!  Snow ratios for the bigger system Feb 4-5th would be around 12:1, 850's near -7C and temps in mid 20's.  Ideal conditions for a big snowstorm.  Hoping this trend continues.

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Yup, I also like our chances with this one because the LRC had this storm in a very similar track through S IL.  Dominick, do you still think ORD is done with 6"+ storms this year???

 

No. I say 2 more 6+ to go! There that cut-off showing up nicely across the Baja area this weekend. Whenever you see something that could mean some big trouble coming next week. Plenty of cold air sticking around to!

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It will all depend how far south that PV is up near Hudson Bay.  Like you said Money, if its farther north it will have more room to amplify and potentially bomb out.  Good sign that both GGEM/Euro are showing ample moisture with this system.  Still days away to digest many more model runs.

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EURO close call for Chicago with the mixing layer nosing into NW IN.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It will all depend how far south that PV is up near Hudson Bay.  Like you said Money, if its farther north it will have more room to amplify and potentially bomb out.  Good sign that both GGEM/Euro are showing ample moisture with this system.  Still days away to digest many more model runs.

 

Yup. Not gonna get that far north with that High up in Lake Superior. 

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