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February 2014 Observations and Discussion


Geos

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^ ED, I did notice that as well and it looks like the coldest temps are over the deepest snow pack.  I think mid/upper 30's in the urban areas of Chicago for Tue/Wed look good and a brief spell into low 40's on Thursday before temps crash later that night.

 

 

BTW, JB just tweeted that Euro weeklies look brutal in March.  Another repeat in the making of March 2013???

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What is that for? Tomorrow? Or was was that today?

 

That is the temperature change between last night at 9pm and 9pm tonight.

 

That CFS and EURO weeklies better be wrong!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That is the temperature change between last night at 9pm and 9pm tonight.

 

That CFS and EURO weeklies better be wrong!

That's what I was thinking. Some places had a nice spike in temps today. The storm lasted around here a little longer than I thought it would, and I think the temps would have gotten even higher if it were not for that. My prediction for tomorrow will be 39, would be nice to see 40.

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That is the temperature change between last night at 9pm and 9pm tonight.

 

That CFS and EURO weeklies better be wrong!

 

I wouldn't mind it personally, as long as we don't have too many nights below zero remaining.  Milwaukee has a potential record or near record snowcover streak in the balance, and since a big time snowstorm (8"+ locally) seems to be dwindling, flirting with that record would almost make the cold of this winter worth it.

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If anyone has Wx Bell, I suggest you look at the Euro Weeklies...your not going to believe how persistant the PV is established in Canada and how intense the ridging in Alaska is all the way thru March 20th (end of the run).  By no means does it show it letting up towards the end of the run.  This would be almost a carbon copy of what March 2013 looked like.  Storm after storm with continued arctic blasts all month long into March from the Rockies to the east coast.  Just incredible.

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00Z GFS showing another system on Saturday forming over Iowa. Could this be the return of the weekend storm? Small and weak, but 1-3 inches it appears.

 

Tom, I thought I heard the Euro weeklies were not really accurate. But we did have a decent March here last year. Would love to have it this year.

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IowaWx, your right about the Euro weeklies being off about warm ups this winter when those never transpired, however, if both the CFS and Euro are on board with a brutal March...I think its safe to say its going to happen.

 

Long range forecasts are never safe to say something is going to happen.  Does it seem quite likely?  Yes, but there are very few absolutes in long range (beyond a week or two) forecasting.

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I'm pretty confident this pattern will continue into March.  The warm pool in the NE pacific isn't going anywhere, we have a SSW even taking place, ridging in Alaska looks to be coming back end of Feb into March.  I just don't see it flipping yet as this has been an extreme winter in my book for a lot of the U.S.

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I wouldn't mind it personally, as long as we don't have too many nights below zero remaining.  Milwaukee has a potential record or near record snowcover streak in the balance, and since a big time snowstorm (8"+ locally) seems to be dwindling, flirting with that record would almost make the cold of this winter worth it.

 

This is the time of year I flip to spring mode. Last two winters I didn't mind a wintry March because everything got going so late. But now it is a different story. I'm all wintered out.

 

I hope we get some increase solar activity/geomagnetic or something and boot that ridging in Alaska out of there for good.

 

On a realistic note, I think my string of snow cover days could go to 85 or so - if it doesn't rain too much on Thursday. If that system really cranks and brings up the warmth and copious amounts of rain and wipes the snow cover out and it doesn't get replenished. Then I think the departures next week could be a lot more tame.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This is the time of year I flip to spring mode. Last two winters I didn't mind a wintry March because everything got going so late. But now it is a different story. I'm all wintered out.

 

I hope we get some increase solar activity/geomagnetic or something and boot that ridging in Alaska out of there for good.

 

On a realistic note, I think my string of snow cover days could go to 85 or so - if it doesn't rain too much on Thursday. If that system really cranks and brings up the warmth and copious amounts of rain and wipes the snow cover out and it doesn't get replenished. Then I think the departures next week could be a lot more tame.

 

Your bias towards what you want is clouding your judgment, there is almost zero chance of your snowpack getting completely wiped out.  Perhaps an inch of rain and 50s would do it, but you won't be hitting the 50s.

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This is the time of year I flip to spring mode. Last two winters I didn't mind a wintry March because everything got going so late. But now it is a different story. I'm all wintered out.

 

I hope we get some increase solar activity/geomagnetic or something and boot that ridging in Alaska out of there for good.

 

On a realistic note, I think my string of snow cover days could go to 85 or so - if it doesn't rain too much on Thursday. If that system really cranks and brings up the warmth and copious amounts of rain and wipes the snow cover out and it doesn't get replenished. Then I think the departures next week could be a lot more tame.

I'm with you, Geos. I'm really getting into a spring mood now, which is very unlike me. I still want one more big storm, but enough of these nickel and dimers and brutal cold.

 

How awesome do some severe storms sound right now?

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Come on ORD! One more big sucker to end this amazing season!

 

CHICAGO

IF THE SNOWFALL WERE TO END TODAY...WITH 67.9 INCHES SO FAR...THE
SEASON WOULD FINISH AS THE 5TH SNOWIEST IN CHICAGO SINCE 1884.

CHICAGO SEASONS WITH AT LEAST 60 INCHES OF SNOW:

RANK TOTAL SNOW WINTER
-------------------------------------------
1) 89.7 IN. 1978-1979
2) 82.3 IN. 1977-1978
3) 77.0 IN. 1969-1970
4) 68.4 IN. 1966-1967
5) 67.9 IN. 2013-2014 INCLUDING FEB 17TH
6) 66.4 IN. 1951-1952
7) 64.1 IN. 1917-1918
8) 60.3 IN. 2007-2008

 

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Wouldn't be surprised to see that weekend storm start to appear again. If I am correct, Thursdays storm was on the models, disappeared, then came back again.

 

Eh with wave hitting us Thursday-Friday cutting off into Hudson Bay over weekend will probably squash that other wave coming in Plains. Though there could be some accumulations from that in NE/IA but nothing big right now.

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LOT:

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION...WHICH ACTUALLY MAY NOT BE A HORRIBLE THING
HYDROLOGICALLY SPEAKING AS SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RE-FREEZING AND SLOWING DOWN OF THE RUNOFF BY LATE THURS NIGHT
ONWARD. NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEATURE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH SUBTLE WAVES ZIPPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE INTENSIFYING HUDSON VORTEX. IMPOSSIBLE TO
TRY AND TIME OR PIN DOWN TRACKS OF SUCH SUBTLE FEATURES MORE THAN A
COUPLE DAYS IN ADVANCE...SO WAS LEFT WITH NO CHOICE BUT TO BLANKET
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. GIVEN OUR TRACK RECORD
FOR SNOWING ON SATURDAY`S LATELY...THE WISE BET MIGHT BE FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ON SATURDAY! FOR ANYONE WHO MAY CATCH A TOUCH OF
SPRING FEVER WITH THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THURSDAY...FORGETABOUTIT!
ECMWF/GFS BOTH PAINT SUCH A BLEAK...DISMAL...COLD...AND
POTENTIALLY SNOWY PICTURE NEXT WEEK THAT ITS LIKELY TO LEAVE MANY
WINTER WEARY SOULS READY TO CURL UP INTO THE FETAL POSITION AND
BEG FOR MERCY FROM OLD MAN WINTER!

 

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I'm with you, Geos. I'm really getting into a spring mood now, which is very unlike me. I still want one more big storm, but enough of these nickel and dimers and brutal cold.

 

How awesome do some severe storms sound right now?

 

T-storms in general sound good. I don't get in the mood for severe weather until late March.

 

Your bias towards what you want is clouding your judgment, there is almost zero chance of your snowpack getting completely wiped out.  Perhaps an inch of rain and 50s would do it, but you won't be hitting the 50s.

 

If we got convection like the 4km NAM shows below there would be serious melting... and flooding. Not wishing that though.

 

 

A week long string of 40s would be awesome right about now. Anyway, it looks like the next cold shot will be focused more east. per JB.

 

----

 

Already 29° here in Racine. Pretty much all the snow on the streets is slush now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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NOAA says it's 22 in racine as of 8:35 am cdt lol

 

19 here

 

I can confirm it is not.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=42.76110840,-87.81360626&sp=KRAC

 

28° at RAC, and 31° near downtown now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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http://www.upnorthlive.com/news/story.aspx?id=1008538#.UwOB_8u9KSN

 

A small plane made a safe emergency landing on Lake Huron. It's cold up there !

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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As a landscaper, this winter has been outstanding from a snowplowing point of view, as income has been record setting, however; it is becoming increasingly likely that those gains will be offset by a cold, damp spring with persistent snowcover. This pattern needs to moderate, otherwise a normally busy April will be wiped out much like it was last year. It's ok if we get some snow, but lets get some warmth and get rid of these mountains of snow already!

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That is the temperature change between last night at 9pm and 9pm tonight.

 

That CFS and EURO weeklies better be wrong!

 

Time to face it. We've got a bill coming due for the Morch two years ago, and it looks like we're gonna have to pay it. Paybacks are h*ll 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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http://www.upnorthlive.com/news/story.aspx?id=1008538#.UwOB_8u9KSN

 

A small plane made a safe emergency landing on Lake Huron. It's cold up there !

 

Yeah up that far north, it would be safe to land a small plane. Not this far south though. Good to hear they had a place to land!

 

Temp has really taken off. 39° at ORD already. 36° at home already. Snow melting like crazy here in Racine.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Nice to have a couple warm days thrown in here but not happy about the rain that is coming. Too much runoff and ice clogs will create a lot of problems especially for homeowners. I am in the insurance industry and we are starting to get claims because of this and this could get very ugly. Not only will we receive rain but then a flash freeze afterwards so not looking forward to this at all.

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Remember the pattern around NYE into the 1st week of January, that will be cycling through the last week of February.  We had 2 decent snow events that were enhanced by the lake, however, this time around the lake won't be as productive.  The pattern that is showing up in the week 1-2 range would support a system to spin up.  Just need to keep watching the models to see it pop up.

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I would have to think the ice on lake michigan is pretty thin so with the strong winds coming with this storm it is quite possible that the ice would be breaking up fairly easily leading to a more open lake. Not that there are any storms on the horizon at the moment where LES would be involved but was just thinking out loud.

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