February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[The Snowman]

Agree with Tom; the LRC is supporting this event. Liking our chances here in Chicago.

[tim the weatherman]

i agree with snowman that chicago will get buried with this weekend and next weeks systems and with this i am thinking that a lot of cold air will be locked in place here in the greatlakes.

[tim the weatherman]

the weather channel just said 80% chance of snow in the chicago area by next tuesday

[Tony]

the weather channel just said 80% chance of snow in the chicago area by next tuesday

The weather channel could care less about the midwest unless there is a huge storm and then they can send out Jim Cantore.

[DominicR]

DVN:

AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND EJECTS E-NE AROUND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR THE MID MS VALLEY...AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE
CARRIED FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IF THE CURRENT SYSTEM
TIMING PERSISTS...WOULD NEED TO BE REMOVE IN LATER FORECASTS.

 

 

LOT long term:
 

 

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER THIS WEEKEND OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD
MEAN QUIET CONDITIONS. WITH AT LEAST THE PARTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC/FAR WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND STILL WITHIN AN ACTIVE
JET STREAM...THERE APPEARS DECENT POTENTIAL TO MODERATE...BUT ALSO
THAT CHANCE TO TAP MORE MOIST-LADEN SYSTEMS THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEB. THIS IS GENERALLY BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME BUT
SOMETHING TO NOTE AS AT LEAST A PARTIAL PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO
OCCUR.

 

[Tom]

Now this is a map that would freeze this nation...12z Euro Ensembles 500mb

 

[Tom]

18z GFS has the storm Feb 4-5 stretching all the way from the Rockies to IL @ 186HR.  This is going to be a monster.  Could be the biggest storm to hit the nation this winter season.

[Geos]

Now this is a map that would freeze this nation...12z Euro Ensembles 500mb

 

Another take on it. 540mb line is surprisingly far north. Big storm potential I would say!

 

[Tom]

Very nice cross country storm track...

[Tom]

18z GFS suppressed this run but still loading up with snow from Rockies on east...

 

 

[Tony]

Model still has the storm so that is a plus at this point. Will be model watching for many days because of this.

[winterfreak]

Finally something to track. Probably just jinxed it lol.

[Tom]

KC and Chicago are in a great spot.  The teleconnections are rather similar to when the storm tracked back in cycle 2 of the LRC so I'm expecting it track through S IL this time around.  However, during that period the storm wasn't as powerful as models are indicating now with this storm.  The most likely reason is because the jet stream is reaching its peak during this time of the season and that is fueling the system this time around.

[DominicR]

12z EURO snowfall map...

 

[james1976]

18z GFS looks better for my area. Man, we have a lot of systems to track! Even next week right after the monster there appears to be another one showing up.

[tim the weatherman]

that looks good

[Sciascia]

12z EURO snowfall map...

Is that a map for both storms or just the 2nd one?

[DominicR]

Is that a map for both storms or just the 2nd one?

 

Not sure I believe just for that storm next week. Mike Caplain posted it on his fb.

[LincWeath]

Obviously with this storm so far out, things are going to be shifting back and forth. Are you guys thinking this is going to continue to push this south, or have a tendency to come north from where it is at now?

[tim the weatherman]

you are right dominicr

[tim the weatherman]

by this time nextweek we will be under blizzard warnings from kansas city mo to detroit michigan

[WBadgersW]

Wagons North/North West anyone?

[Money]

by this time nextweek we will be under blizzard warnings from kansas city mo to detroit michigan

 

Little premature eh?

[ChicagoToSeattle]

Wagons North/North West anyone?

I was thinking the same thing -- any time the east coast ridge pops, the models take a while to understand the strength of the high. It's a classic pattern for the last several years with some exceptions such as the GHD Blizzard. The Euro had a bead on that one nearly a week out

[DominicR]

I was thinking the same thing -- any time the east coast ridge pops, the models take a while to understand the strength of the high. It's a classic pattern for the last several years with some exceptions such as the GHD Blizzard. The Euro had a bead on that one nearly a week out

 

Yeah that might be a concern. Now feb is when things start to shift furthur north but such a way to go with this one.

[DominicR]

Might be a DSM-GRB special.

[The Snowman]

Will end up in Canada after it cuts north into Minnesota.

 

...

 

Too soon to be calling for any shifts. Heck, we don't know if we'll even have a storm. LRC supporting this storm is definitely a good sign, but we're still over a week out.

[james1976]

im hoping for a north shift 

[tim the weatherman]

i am hoping for a south shift to keep chicago as is

[Geos]

Which model are you guys getting at? The GFS?

[james1976]

i need a north shift with all of them, lol

[winterfreak]

Man the plains forum is dead.

[Geos]

The NAO staying positive and PNA continuing to dip might allow this storm to cut pretty far. AO is probably the only thing that will keep it blocked from cutting across MI or somewhere nearby.

[james1976]

Geos, you think a north shift is a good possibility?

[Geos]

Geos, you think a north shift is a good possibility?

 

If the AO rises it could. Little hard to tell 7 days out.

 

Someone who's following the LRC might have a good idea what will happen.

[tim the weatherman]

i think that chicago is in a sweet and good spot of getting this potential blizzard because of the ao and southeast ridge.

[Tom]

00z GFS taking Feb 4-5th storm south again...slams KC and N MO/S IL

[tim the weatherman]

nmo/nil tom

[Money]

chicago gets nothing hardly 

[winterfreak]

Slams KC? Pretending I didn't here that.