Mid-November backdoor cold push forecast contest

[Jesse]

PDX and/or SEA.

 

Tuesday thru Friday.

 

Go!

[Jesse]

PDX:

 

Tuesday- 44/34

Wednesday- 41/30

Thursday: 38/32 (wintery mix???)

Friday: 43/33

 

Stevenson:

 

Tuesday- 41/32

Wednesday: 36/29

Thursday: 32/28 (snow???)

Friday: 37/32

[snow_wizard]

Just a total guess here since there is so much uncertainty how much cold air will spill over.

 

SEA -

 

11/11- 45 - 34

11/12- 42 - 32

11/13- 45 - 35

11/14- 45 - 35

 

PDX -

 

11/11 - 45 - 32 (low set at midnight)

11/12 - 40 - 30

11/13 - 38 - 28 (some snow possible)

11/14 - 42 - 30

 

Pretty decent but nothing to write home about will be the likely outcome.

[Jesse]

I would love to see more forecasts on this thread!

[BLI snowman]

BLI:

 

11/11- 45/31

11/12- 42/25

11/13- 43/25

11/14- 43/32

 

SEA

 

11/11- 48/35

11/12- 44/31

11/13- 43/32

11/14- 44/34

 

PDX

 

11/11- 44/29

11/12- 40/27

11/13- 37/30

11/14- 43/33

[snow_wizard]

I would be very curious to see what Dewey thinks.

[FroYoBro]

Portland:

 

Tuesday: 46/34

Wednesday: 42/30

Thursday: 38/32

Friday: 41/35

[FroYoBro]

Want to make this a pointless contest? Need prediction in by midnight tonight?

[Jesse]

Want to make this a pointless contest? Need prediction in by midnight tonight?

 

Sure, that works.

[Phil]

Are we actually going to score this one?

 

[Jesse]

Are we actually going to score this one?

 

 

Yeah.

[Deweydog]

I would be very curious to see what Dewey thinks.

 

It's pretty interesting stuff, but I think it might be oversold for the west side.  The east side looks like it might see something pretty monumental though if the frontogenesis for later in the week sets up just right, especially for upslope spots.

 

PDX-

 

45/36

41/34

41/33

46/37

[Jesse]

It's pretty interesting stuff, but I think it might be oversold for the west side.  The east side looks like it might see something pretty monumental though if the frontogenesis for later in the week sets up just right, especially for upslope spots.

 

PDX-

 

45/36

41/34

41/33

46/37

 

No freeze? Ouch.

 

I will admit this is a distinct possibility with what should be strong winds, a well-mixed atmosphere and clouds moving in by Wednesday night.

[Deweydog]

No freeze? Ouch.

 

I will admit this is a distinct possibility with what should be strong winds, a well-mixed atmosphere and clouds moving in by Wednesday night.

 

Where does it happen?  Outflow will be strong, but we're talking about a purely advection-related event here.  Beyond that, I highly doubt wet-bulb power will drag them all the way to 32.2.  

[Jesse]

Where does it happen?  Outflow will be strong, but we're talking about a purely advection-related event here.  Beyond that, I highly doubt wet-bulb power will drag them all the way to 32.2.  

 

It might not.

[westcoastexpat]

SEA

T= 47/34
W= 44/32
R= 44/32
F= 48/35

 

 

PDX

 

T= 45/33

W= 42/30

R= 42/32

F= 45/36

[BLI snowman]

Revising:

 

Still like my BLI numbers.

 

SEA:

 

11/11: 48/32

11/12: 44/29

11/13: 43/31

11/14: 45/35

 

PDX:

 

11/11: 46/33

11/12: 43/31

11/13: 39/31

11/14: 46/38

[FroYoBro]

So looks like PDX had 47/35 for Tuesday. I was pretty close. 

[Deweydog]

Yay!  41!

[Jesse]

Yay!  41!

 

Yay for both of us.

[Deweydog]

Yay for both of us.

 

Nice!  I took a dump with the low, though.  

[snow_wizard]

Wow! I have nailed SEA so far. I said 45-34 and 42-32...actual was 46-34 and 44-32.

 

They put up a very nice -8 departure today. Ironically they were dead on for the their average first freeze date.

[BLI snowman]

Whiffed it on BLI but got SEA pretty solidly today.

[westcoastexpat]

Wow! I have nailed SEA so far. I said 45-34 and 42-32...actual was 46-34 and 44-32.

 

They put up a very nice -8 departure today. Ironically they were dead on for the their average first freeze date.

 Wow I had 47-34 and 44-32 for SEA. 1 degree off from perfect!

High five, Jim

[snow_wizard]

Wow I had 47-34 and 44-32 for SEA. 1 degree off from perfect!

High five, Jim

Well done! Given the uncertainty going into this I think we've done well.

[snow_wizard]

I hit SEA dead on today. Almost impossible to be so close on 3 consecutive days.

 

I also hit the PDX max dead on today. Not to brag or anything...

[Jesse]

Final numbers-

 

PDX:

 

Tue- 47/35

Wed- 41/32

Thu- 38/32

Fri - 45/29

 

SEA:

 

Tue- 46/34

Wed- 44/32

Thu- 45/33

Fri- 45/28

[westcoastexpat]

Are we actually going to score this one?

 

 

Looks like we'll have to do it ourselves 

 

 

 

SEA:

 

Tue- 1 off

Wed- perfect

Thu- 2 off

Fri- 10 off lol

 

Total=13

 

 

 

PDX:

 

Tue- 4 off

Wed- 3 off

Thu- 4 off

Fri – 7 off

 

Total=18

[FroYoBro]

Who won?

[Deweydog]

Who won?

 

You did!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are all winners in my book. 

[Jesse]

Everybody's participation medals are in the mail.