November 15-17th Snow Prospects

[Money]

One GFS model develops a strong low and produces widespread qpf with 1+ in a lot of areas. Rest are about the same as op

[Money]

It actually brings a sub 1000 panhandle hook low up to Chicago around the hr 120 mark. Majority of the ensemble members are wetter than the op

[Iowawx]

06Z GFS is pretty weak with the storm this weekend. Hopefully it can get stronger as the event gets closer.

[Geos]

The "old" GFS is usually the last model to play catch-up. The parallel GFS is more generous with the snow.

[East Dubzz]

DVN talking 1-2" across the area.

[Geos]

From MKX:

 

 

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...MAINLY DURING SATURDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS NOT A TON OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT FAIRLY DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FOR A TIME...AND THE
DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE VIA GFS SOUNDINGS IS ABOUT 250-300 MB DEEP
DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST LIFT. STILL THINKING ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH UPPER TROUGHING
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL SEE A COUPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH...BUT NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT WITH
THESE WEAK WAVES TO CONSIDER ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

 

[james1976]

NAM has system strengthening as it moves into Iowa. Don't know if im buying that.

[Niko]

I am thinking that this system will get surpressed, at least for my area and probably for some on this board as well. The reason why I am leaning towards this way is because of the strong surge of Arctic Air that will be invading the country and parts of the gulf coast too, if you can believe that.

[Geos]

GFS op model showing a bit more snow coming across the Plains on this run.

 

Well only so far...

 

 

 

Newer GFS

 

 

[gosaints]

I am thinking that this system will get surpressed, at least for my area and probably for some on this board as well. The reason why I am leaning towards this way is because of the strong surge of Arctic Air that will be invading the country and parts of the gulf coast too, if you can believe that.

Dont know if I completely buy that.  Last system showed the same thing multiple times days out

[Tom]

12z GGEM thru 96Hr...

[winterfreak]

Wow GGEM is pretty awful. Way north. Wonder which one will win out.

[Tom]

12z Euro sends out 1 wave Sat/Sun period but then tries to really dig this trough into the southern Plains with the 2nd wave.  Its so close to phasing with the northern stream.  If it can time this a bit earlier, this is getting real close to becoming something big.

 

KS/MO do real well this run and so does the southern Midwest....

 

Edit: Sorry, that was the 00z run...this is the new 12z run and notice the shift NW with the band of snow...

[Iowawx]

12z Euro sends out 1 wave Sat/Sun period but then tries to really dig this trough into the southern Plains with the 2nd wave.  Its so close to phasing with the northern stream.  If it can time this a bit earlier, this is getting real close to becoming something big.

 

KS/MO do real well this run and so does the southern Midwest....

Does that seem possible Tom??

[Tom]

Does that seem possible Tom??

The way the trend is going, I wouldn't see why not and the fact the Euro is still developing the 2nd wave down in the southern Plains is an "eye catcher".  It didn't have that 24 hours ago, but back to back runs its showing signs.  With the arctic HP plunging down into the northern Plains, 1029 Bermuda HP off the east coast...it has eyes up the souther Midwest/OV.  If this can phase a bit more earlier in future runs, this will get very interesting.

[Money]

So close. When does the system develop on the euro?

[Tom]

So close. When does the system develop on the euro?

Near the Appalachians....

[Jaycee]

Man, this thing is really far south. I'm not liking it. I'd rather have it phase early and cut NW, hopefully the High Pressure to the Northwest of us doesn't yield it from doing so.

[gosaints]

looking more like a split flow event for the 1st wave.  possible northern stream dominance with a little dendritic fluff in november

[Niko]

12z Euro sends out 1 wave Sat/Sun period but then tries to really dig this trough into the southern Plains with the 2nd wave.  Its so close to phasing with the northern stream.  If it can time this a bit earlier, this is getting real close to becoming something big.

 

KS/MO do real well this run and so does the southern Midwest....

 

Edit: Sorry, that was the 00z run...this is the new 12z run and notice the shift NW with the band of snow...

Yes, Kansas City and St. Louis are in store for several inches as for now.

[james1976]

Yeah, looking pretty weak. Inch or two. Still 3 days away so we got time.

[winterfreak]

I see I'm sitting pretty with the EURO and not that much worse with the GFS. The GGEM and NAM are way north. Go away high pressure! What gives?

[gosaints]

SREF spits out 3 inches here

[winterfreak]

The NAM says Jack Squat is coming to visit on Saturday.

[GDR]

I'm siding with the Nam on this one!

[james1976]

NAM still taking the north route. Interesting. Looks like it wants to develop something to the SW at hr 84 though.

[Money]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Money]

GFS is stronger/more amped towards Kansas etc. It dies out though as it heads east. 6-8 storm total in most of KS

[Tony]

Looks like LOT is going with an inch with this system. Sounds about right as I don't think this will turn into anything more than that as models are not showing anything of substance.

 

And as I type this 18z GFS throws Northern IL a bone

[Money]

GB AFD talking about a potential for a deeper/stronger system if the northern stream can catch up

 

"If a deeper northern polar shortwave can catch up to it...potential is there for a stronger/deeper system"

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

 

through 78:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_asnow_us_14.png

[Geos]

Rooting for a phasing (or partial phase) of the northern stream. Maybe that is what the EURO and CMC are seeing. I can see the bigger potential here... A timing issue currently. Still thinking 2" is quite possible.

[Money]

OP GFS is much more wetter.

[Tony]

Rooting for a phasing (or partial phase) of the northern stream. Maybe that is what the EURO and CMC are seeing. I can see the bigger potential here... A timing issue currently. Still thinking 2" is quite possible.

The 18zGFS run with a 15:1 ratio might get us a couple inches

[Money]

12z Parallel GFS HR 90

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111212/gfsp_asnow_us_16.png

 

18z Parallel GFS HR 84:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111218/gfsp_asnow_us_15.png

[Geos]

Fwiw: a lot of models were too quick to kick out the energy for the departing storm.

 

Not by a lot, but if thus was the case with this system with the southern piece it would mean a big difference in totals.

[Geos]

From GRR.

Sounds like they're going bullish. 

 

 

AFD "THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES SAT NIGHT. MOISTURE DEEPENS UP CONSIDERABLY AND THERE IS BETTER LIFT JUST UNDER THE DGZ. SO WE MAY END UP WITH A HEADLINE EVENT. I BUMPED UP POPS AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN MOST LOCATIONS SEEING ACCUMULATIONS."

 

SREF plumes showing snow in the area. (Just click on a location dot nearest you)

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20141112&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=UGN&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=42.45158446278519&mLON=-88.715016015625&mTYP=roadmap

Edited November 13, 2014 by Geos

[Geos]

And the 0z NAM is off and running! ~