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November 15-17th Snow Prospects


Geos

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That area to the north keeps sinking south.  This storm may surprise Nebraska.  According to this map, the places with the chances of the most snow are not in the WWA.  I have seen this before that areas outside of an advisory get hit harder than those in it.  Time will tell.  Keep coming a few more miles south and most of Nebraska will be happy.

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That area to the north keeps sinking south.  This storm may surprise Nebraska.  According to this map, the places with the chances of the most snow are not in the WWA.  I have seen this before that areas outside of an advisory get hit harder than those in it.  Time will tell.  Keep coming a few more miles south and most of Nebraska will be happy.

Ride the GGEM with caution

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I'd say this event is going to be more so a nowcast type and watch the radar returns.  I like what the models are showing and SREF's seem to be increasing the moisture output, but with no defined SLP its hard to say where these heavier bands set up.  Give me 2" and I'll be stoked.

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Winter weather advisories all the way up to the LOT's western edge. Surprised MKX didn't issue some along their southwestern edge.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Still 1-3" forecasted for my area. Thinking 2" is a fairly good bet. Top layer of the soil is frozen, so the snow will stick right away.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Haha^

 

4km NAM this evening. Showing a little more love for eastern NE.

 

 

Parallel GFS

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Haha^

 

4km NAM this evening. Showing a little more love for eastern NE.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111500/nam4km_asnow_ncus_21.png

 

Parallel GFS

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_asnow_eus_11.png

Their in-house model also showed a complete dominant northern wave. Snow going on in nw nebraska expands and moves through early tomorrow morning; I'm hoping for a surprise or just a solid 2-4" strip of snow through the state. Hastings NWS page looks like a jigsaw puzzle with the advisories!!!

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The system dries out as it heads east, and southern areas have really been trimmed back.  I'm going with 1.5 in CR.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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