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11/23 - 11/24 Potential Major Storm System


Tom

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Pulling for the RAP to nudge the deformation band about 50 miles south.  :D

Two inches is fine, but would like my November total to go up!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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By looking at all the maps tonight, it seems the warm tongue will be moving at a steady pace to the east and not getting hung up in one area for long. I think accumulations will be pretty uniform west to east across MKX where the deformation band sets up.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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LSE: 4.8"


MSN: 5.4"


DBQ: 3.7"


GRB: 4.0"


OSH: 6.2"


ORD: 1.6"


MKE: 4.4"


Racine: 3.7"


 


Bonus: Highest totals - Beaver Dam, 7.0"


 


---


 


Is it me or is the 3z RAP coming in a bit south?


Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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LSE: 5.2"

 

MSN: 4.2"

 

DBQ: 1.9"

 

GRB: 4.9"

 

OSH: 5.6"

 

ORD: 0.8"

 

MKE: 1.4"

 

RAC: 1.2"

 

Highest amount: 6.2" at Baraboo, WI

 

I am a bit skimpy on accumulation in the lakeshore areas perhaps but I believe it will be difficult for the snow to stick until after dark in most of those lakeshore cities because even once it changes over to snow, temps appear to be above freezing for most of the afternoon and after all the rain, sticking snow may be difficult to come by until the rush hour, and by then we're probably only looking at a few more hours of snow.  I'm praying it will slow down a bit so we can continue to rip in the evening, though I have plans that involve a fair bit of driving as well.

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Meh, not that south at all from what I can tell. It's got a large area of 30-35 dbz though at the end of the run.

 

GB update (45 mins ago)

 

NEXT ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ADVISORY TYPE SNOW FOR THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. EVENING NAM RUN SUGGESTS A HIGH
END ADVISORY OR LOW END WARNING SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN...OR EAST OF A LINE FROM MARINETTE TO WAUTOMA
. WILL
CHECK OTHER MODEL OUTPUT WHEN AVAILABLE AND BRIEF THE MID CREW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS/S FOR NOW.

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It's going to come down to watching the radar and seeing how quickly the CAA can kick in. Dynamic cooling could be key tomorrow. That deformation band on the 3z RAP looks really healthy.

 

0.85" of rain and still going here.

 

I tell you... the corresponding snowfall depth map for the RAP is laughable! Showing a dusting across southwest WI by 3pm when it reality it will probably be between 2-4" by then.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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NMM:

 

22

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_022_sim_radar.gif

23

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_023_sim_radar.gif

 

24

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_024_sim_radar.gif

 

Man, we're riding the edge of the heavier stuff for awhile.  Glad I backed off for MKE, RAC and ORD because it only looks like a two to three hour window of ripping snow and that will probably be during the day so again accums will be iffy.

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12 HR QPF (15-27) NMM

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_027_precip_p12.gif

 

ARW (14-26)

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_026_precip_p12.gif

 

This may not come down to track as much as the speed at which the low and corresponding deformation zone move.  If it slows down more than modeled, these higher amounts may shift a tad south.

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Yep, I'll take the ARW then!  :D

 

Wow, already snowing west of La Crosse - nice!

 

Two degrees cooler or so, would make a huge difference...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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