11/23 - 11/24 Potential Major Storm System

[Tom]

Heard on American that it's back to a two wave part with a 989 L over STL at 139

Yup, a bit different look this run...models are going to have a hellova time trying to figure this one out.

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[Money]

What were the big changes Tom?

[Tom]

What were the big changes Tom?

Seems like the first piece goes north into the upper lakes, then a second piece develops just SE of Chicago.  This second piece may be able to tug down more cold air in future runs.  Also, the snows stretch so far west into the Plains states.  Def reminds me of the Christmas 2010 storm but that one had more colder air with it.

[Tom]

Only if this could come out in 1 piece, it would be a behemoth!

[Money]

How did the 12z euro ensembles look Tom?

[Tom]

How did the 12z euro ensembles look Tom?

Nothing special really....

[Snowshoe]

Seems like the first piece goes north into the upper lakes, then a second piece develops just SE of Chicago.  This second piece may be able to tug down more cold air in future runs.  Also, the snows stretch so far west into the Plains states.  Def reminds me of the Christmas 2010 storm but that one had more colder air with it.

 

Are you guys talking about Dec 2009 and not 2010? 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/graphics/2009_2010/dec23_27_2009.html

[Geos]

I think it was 2009, because in 2010 it was all LES on Christmas Day and Eve around here.

[Tom]

Are you guys talking about Dec 2009 and not 2010? 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/graphics/2009_2010/dec23_27_2009.html

Ya, I think that is the one...that year there was immense blocking...the AO was around -5 during that stretch and the NAO was about -1

 

AO:

2009 12 23 -5.577

2009 12 24 -5.256

2009 12 25 -5.052

2009 12 26 -4.406

2009 12 27 -3.724

 

 

NAO

2009 12 23 -0.876

2009 12 24 -0.935

2009 12 25 -1.017

2009 12 26 -0.886

2009 12 27 -0.636

[Money]

GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

[winterfreak]

Yeah we were under BW for that one. Three days of non stop snow with Christmas Eve night being the most memorable. Winds howling at 40mph while the windows shuttered. Just awesome stuff.

[Money]

That northern stream either needs to dig farther south or it's going to ruin the entire storm 

[Sven]

Hold the phone. We are still a good amount of time away from the event, and nothing is set in stone. As everyone knows on this forum, it is not good, traditionally, to be forecasted to get clobbered multiple days in advance. Got a hunch that plenty of changes will follow in the coming days. No saying all rain, or doesn't look great for major snow, we still have plenty of time. 

Hastings NWS AFD hit the nail on the head, again. 

 

 

SAT-SUN: WHICH STREAM DOMINATES THE SPLIT FLOW? THAT HAS POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS TO THE FCST AND IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE
RESOLVED UNTIL WE ARE WITHIN 1-2 DAYS. IN THE PAST 24 HRS...THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEGUN PLACING WHAT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THE NRN STREAM LOW HEADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS CAME
IN AND MAINTAINS THE POTENCY OF BOTH AND I JUST CANNOT SEE THAT
HAPPENING. THE EC CONTS CONSISTENT PLACING THE EMPHASIS ON THE SRN
PLAINS LOW WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE WITH A DIGGING TROF UPSTREAM.

BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A SUB 990 LOW TRACKING JUST E OF THE REGION.

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONT TO SUGGEST THE COMMAHEAD PRECIP MISSES
TO THE E. HOWEVER...THE TOP ANALOGS FOR SIMILAR EVENTS /AVAILABLE
FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR PRECIP SYSTEMS/ SUGGESTS IT WILL
RAIN HERE. THE MEDIAN RAINFALL BRINGS .10-.25" DEEP INTO THE FCST
AREA. THE MEAN IS HIGHER.

SO AGAIN...SUGGEST CAUTION ON USING OUR WEEKEND FCST BECAUSE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE MAY NEED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WETTER/
SNOWIER? THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE FCST. BELIEVE THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE WITH LATER FCSTS.

[winterfreak]

Yeah it's not happening with this one. Nice rain storm though. Impressive features nonetheless. We still have a whooole winter to go that hasn't even started yet.

[centralweather44]

Amazing what a little bit of rain instead of snow forecasted can do to this forum. It has been dead in here tonight.

[GDR]

I know you can hear a pin drop or raindrop!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Amazing what a little bit of rain instead of snow forecasted can do to this forum. It has been dead in here tonight.

 

Cold rain is seriously the worst, would much rather have 40s and sunny than 40s and moderate to heavy stratiform rain.  If we get in the warm sector to allow for t'storms, that's a different story.

[clintbeed1993]

Cold rain is seriously the worst, would much rather have 40s and sunny than 40s and moderate to heavy stratiform rain.  If we get in the warm sector to allow for t'storms, that's a different story.

 

I second that.  Cold rain is the only type of weather I can't stand.  Other than dry cold that is.

[Money]

I already see some interesting changes on the 0z GFS at HR 78 compared to 18z at hr 84.

[Money]

Phase happens sooner on the 00z parallel 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111900/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_19.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111900/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_20.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111900/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_21.png

[Money]

Here is regular GFS at HR 120:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111900/gfs_z500_mslp_us_21.png

[Tom]

Still looks a bit to far north near the Canadian border...maybe we can score some wrap around snows.

[Iowawx]

Still looks a bit to far north near the Canadian border...maybe we can score some wrap around snows.

I don't want to sound like a downer, but I seriously think that some of you are getting your hopes up for what looks to be nothing more than a late season rainstorm with little to no snow. 

[Geos]

We're still a little ways away from this event. More phasing could happen as the model run go on. I would think Iowa up into far western WI and MN would stand the best chance to see the most snow from this if it does produce.

[Tom]

I don't want to sound like a downer, but I seriously think that some of you are getting your hopes up for what looks to be nothing more than a late season rainstorm with little to no snow. 

I'm not getting my hopes up, in fact, I dont think this storm will phase quick enough to bring a significant snow storm.  However, I can see some wrap around snows once the system matures and starts occluding.  Nothing to significant.

[Money]

I just want to see a bomb. We don't see those very often. Don't really care if it rains or snows, we are barely halfway through Nov. only. 

[Money]

GGEM:

 

 

 

[Tom]

This looks like a rain to snow transition and whoever is located on the western (maybe even southern) side of this system stands the best chance of seeing accumulating snows.

[Money]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[Money]

GGEM Ensembles:

 

HR 120

 

[Money]

HR 132:

 

 

Nearly everyone is going with a big bomb. 

[East Dubzz]

Rain rain go away, come again another day

 

... Preferably like like may or june.

[Money]

Euro back to the big bomb. 978 in N. IL at HR 120. 

[Money]

975 in the UP at HR 144.

 

How does it look Tom?

[Tom]

975 in the UP at HR 144.

 

How does it look Tom?

All the main snow ends up in N MN and in Southern Canada...but there are some snows in N WI and snow that wraps around farther west.

[Grizzcoat]

This storm and the potential system on Thanksgiving--- never seen so much disparity between the GFS and the EURO. Not my first rodeo , either.

[Money]

A couple big snow producers on the GFS ensembles 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f132.gif

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f138.gif

[gosaints]

GFS has an intereseting look to it

[gosaints]

Well no overly exciting but a step in the right direction