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Great Plains - Winter Weather Observations

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#51
centralweather44

Posted 06 December 2014 - 01:01 PM

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Mets were off today. Hit a high of 36 today, they were forecasting 42. Big change from the 52 we hit yesterday.

#52
clintbeed1993

Posted 06 December 2014 - 01:41 PM

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Take a look at the latest GFS.  Nebraska finally seeing some love.

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#53
clintbeed1993

Posted 06 December 2014 - 01:46 PM

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Still stays a bit too warm for snow for most of the state, but Western Nebraska gets a nice snowstorm.  Very interesting developments.  Let's just keep an eye on the models in the coming days.  It makes sense for a major storm to strike right after a warm spell.  Historically, some of our biggest snowstorms were right after warm spells.  Cold air could definitely get drug south if the system is as strong as the GFS is indicating.  Atleast we have something to watch in the plains.


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#54
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 December 2014 - 03:28 PM

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Thanks for the info clint, definitely potential of precipitation.

#55
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 December 2014 - 09:02 PM

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Liking the look of the 00z gfs at 204-228 hours. Sure looks the the development of a Colorado low. Still about 8 days out darn it. Have to keep hope alive.

#56
clintbeed1993

Posted 06 December 2014 - 09:19 PM

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Liking the look of the 00z gfs at 204-228 hours. Sure looks the the development of a Colorado low. Still about 8 days out darn it. Have to keep hope alive.

 

2 runs in a row showing the exact same thing!  Definitely a positive sign!  Although those of us in Nebraska know how quickly a storm will disappear for our region.  Best not to get our hopes up too high.  Fun to have a storm to track though!  I can't believe how many people are calling off this winter entirely based on one mild week.  The storm threat will be so much higher this winter than last.  That alone is enough to have me excited, especially since it won't be as bitterly cold.


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#57
GDR

Posted 06 December 2014 - 09:30 PM

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Yeah I'm not getting to excited about anything that far out. Local weather guy said were heading into a dry pattern and could last awhile.

#58
NEJeremy

Posted 06 December 2014 - 10:00 PM

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2 runs in a row showing the exact same thing!  Definitely a positive sign!  Although those of us in Nebraska know how quickly a storm will disappear for our region.  Best not to get our hopes up too high.  Fun to have a storm to track though!  I can't believe how many people are calling off this winter entirely based on one mild week.  The storm threat will be so much higher this winter than last.  That alone is enough to have me excited, especially since it won't be as bitterly cold.

Where did you hear it's not going to be as bitterly cold? All the people here who say it's going to be stormy are also saying it's going to be a brutally cold winter too.



#59
clintbeed1993

Posted 06 December 2014 - 10:25 PM

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Where did you hear it's not going to be as bitterly cold? All the people here who say it's going to be stormy are also saying it's going to be a brutally cold winter too.

 

All of the local mets for one.  A lot of people on this forum also seem to be calling off this winter.  Surely you heard people talking about the developing el nino.  This mild week that we have coming also seems to have a lot of people spooked.



#60
tim the weatherman

Posted 07 December 2014 - 07:35 AM

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2 runs in a row showing the exact same thing!  Definitely a positive sign!  Although those of us in Nebraska know how quickly a storm will disappear for our region.  Best not to get our hopes up too high.  Fun to have a storm to track though!  I can't believe how many people are calling off this winter entirely based on one mild week.  The storm threat will be so much higher this winter than last.  That alone is enough to have me excited, especially since it won't be as bitterly cold.

people are freaking out on not having a white christmas all because of milder weather that will fade once the epo/wpo'ao'nao and the pna flips so that means that the colder air will funneling down from canada so my odds of a white christmas is increasing sigifcantly.



#61
CentralNebWeather

Posted 07 December 2014 - 03:20 PM

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Gfs 18z still onto a storm in the extended. I know our biggest storms here in central Nebraska come from the southwest.

#62
centralweather44

Posted 07 December 2014 - 03:53 PM

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Another day with below forecasted temps. NOAA forecasted 46, we only reached 39. Let's hope this continues into late next weekend. It's been interesting to say the least.

#63
CentralNebWeather

Posted 08 December 2014 - 09:29 AM

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The last 2 runs of the GFS and the storm on the 15th and 16th has disappeared.  Looked like a classic Colorado Low for Nebraska.  Waiting to see when Tom loads precip maps for the GGEM.  Says lots of moisture with a classic west to east bowling ball, I am all for that.


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#64
clintbeed1993

Posted 08 December 2014 - 11:55 AM

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The last 2 runs of the GFS and the storm on the 15th and 16th has disappeared.  Looked like a classic Colorado Low for Nebraska.  Waiting to see when Tom loads precip maps for the GGEM.  Says lots of moisture with a classic west to east bowling ball, I am all for that.

 

Yeah, little disappointed to see the storm miss to the south.  Still a lot of time for things to change though. 



#65
NEJeremy

Posted 08 December 2014 - 12:53 PM

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beautiful 50 degrees here in Omaha. it's going to cool down a bit tomorrow before it warms back up into the upper 40s and 50s the rest of the week and into the weekend. my gut tells me if that storm is going to hit us beginning of next week, it's going to be rain :(



#66
clintbeed1993

Posted 08 December 2014 - 08:31 PM

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Storm is back on the GFS.  Showing some pretty heavy precip on the 14th into the 15th.  Cold air is definitely still iffy.



#67
clintbeed1993

Posted 08 December 2014 - 08:38 PM

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Boom!  Lock that in!  Hopefully this can draw more cold air.  Could be a major snow producer if that happens.

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#68
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 December 2014 - 11:31 AM

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Saw this from the NWS in Goodland KS.  They give a very detailed idea of potential to the upcoming weekend storm.  They lay out 3 scenarios. Below is scenario #3.  I love this idea because storms that hit western and northwestern Kansas seem to affect us in Central Nebraska.

 

THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS BASICALLY WHAT ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUNS HIGHLIGHT. A STRONG LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.
A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ON THE LOW`S NORTHWEST
SIDE...PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MAY OCCUR SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED AND WOULD LIKELY FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
IN THIS SCENARIO...A CRIPPLING WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE. WHILE THIS
SCENARIO IS QUITE WORRISOME...IT IS TOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AS WHAT WILL HAPPEN SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHERE MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INTENSE WINTER STORM WILL HAPPEN.


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#69
Tony

Posted 09 December 2014 - 01:57 PM

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Saw this from the NWS in Goodland KS.  They give a very detailed idea of potential to the upcoming weekend storm.  They lay out 3 scenarios. Below is scenario #3.  I love this idea because storms that hit western and northwestern Kansas seem to affect us in Central Nebraska.

 

THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS BASICALLY WHAT ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUNS HIGHLIGHT. A STRONG LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.
A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ON THE LOW`S NORTHWEST
SIDE...PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MAY OCCUR SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED AND WOULD LIKELY FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
IN THIS SCENARIO...A CRIPPLING WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE. WHILE THIS
SCENARIO IS QUITE WORRISOME...IT IS TOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AS WHAT WILL HAPPEN SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHERE MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INTENSE WINTER STORM WILL HAPPEN.

Do you know what model they were referring to?



#70
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 December 2014 - 02:13 PM

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I will look back at the discussion.

#71
NEJeremy

Posted 09 December 2014 - 02:28 PM

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Do you know what model they were referring to?

 

In this discussion it says "all latest operational model runs" so I'm guessing they are referring to the GFS, Euro, and CMC?! That discussion was from last nights overnight discussion



#72
NEJeremy

Posted 09 December 2014 - 03:04 PM

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18Z GFS shows 6+" in southeast Nebraska next Sunday night/ Monday



#73
Tony

Posted 09 December 2014 - 03:11 PM

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18Z GFS shows 6+" in southeast Nebraska next Sunday night/ Monday

Looks good for you guys. If the northern stream energy can dig a little more then you guys might be looking at a favorable snowstorm...good luck!



#74
centralweather44

Posted 09 December 2014 - 05:35 PM

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Anybody able to post any maps so the rest of us can see them? Sorry just not able to pull them up on my phone for some reason, and don't have access to a computer until tomorrow.
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#75
gabel23

Posted 09 December 2014 - 06:09 PM

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18Z GFS shows 6+" in southeast Nebraska next Sunday night/ Monday

 

 

Anybody able to post any maps so the rest of us can see them? Sorry just not able to pull them up on my phone for some reason, and don't have access to a computer until tomorrow.

 

I posted 00z run from last night and 18z run from today. I really have no idea where the AO/NAO numbers are but we really need them both to be near 0 if we want any chance for this thing to wrap up and become something good. Models are all over the place with this storm and realistically, they might not have a handle on this until Friday at the earliest. My christmas lights are all up and it's about time we add some snow to the scene! I'm just ready for this pattern change already, things have been really benign around here for quite sometime.......

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#76
centralweather44

Posted 09 December 2014 - 06:38 PM

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Thanks for posting the maps. I will tell you that I feel this may be our only shot before Xmas. I am pretty nervous that our temps may be to warm, but I guess only the coming days will tell. They have dropped temps about 6-8 degree in the past 2 days, I guess we will see where we stand towards the end of the week.

#77
clintbeed1993

Posted 09 December 2014 - 07:14 PM

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Definitely nervous on both track and overall amount of cold air for this system.  We might actually have another shot at a major storm the week of Christmas, but it's too far out in fantasy land to say for sure.  This definitely looks like our best bet with something not in la la land.  Teleconnections are not going to be very good for cold air or phased storms unfortunately.  Looking at a positive AO and NAO.  We will probably have to wait until Thursday or Friday to know the track and amount of cold air available.  Nice to have a storm to track nonetheless.


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#78
Andrew NE

Posted 09 December 2014 - 07:23 PM

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If temp profiles were just 10 degrees colder it would make a big difference. Looks like moisture will be plentiful depending on exact track.

#79
clintbeed1993

Posted 09 December 2014 - 07:41 PM

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If temp profiles were just 10 degrees colder it would make a big difference. Looks like moisture will be plentiful depending on exact track.

 

We need the storm to slow down slightly and become phased.  It's probably going to need to produce some cold air of it's own.  I know a cold front is suppose to be coming through Sunday afternoon, but the cold air behind it doesn't seem all that impressive.



#80
clintbeed1993

Posted 09 December 2014 - 08:17 PM

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Cold air really having a tough time making it into the system.  Such a small area of accumulating snow.  Still a lot of precip with it, just need temperatures a bit colder.

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#81
Money

Posted 09 December 2014 - 08:33 PM

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Parallel GFS:

 

gfsp_asnow_us_24.png



#82
clintbeed1993

Posted 09 December 2014 - 08:40 PM

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Parallel GFS:

 

gfsp_asnow_us_24.png

 

Weird, regular GFS doesn't even give Western Nebraska any precip at all.



#83
centralweather44

Posted 10 December 2014 - 06:21 AM

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Yes major shift west within the past 12-18 hours. Lack of cold air is going to play havoc in the eastern part of the state, but west of GI looks to be in a sweet spot.
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#84
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 December 2014 - 06:27 AM

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Loving the look of these trends and maps.  All of the NWS sites in the region that I have looked at, all talk moisture not being an issue, but type being the problem.  Might not know exactly where the rain/snow line sets up until hours before the event.  Should be fun to track this weekend.  



#85
mlgamer

Posted 10 December 2014 - 07:29 AM

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We have a somewhat surprise freezing rain advisory in the Topeka KS area this morning until 11:00AM.  We had expected mainly drizzle with temps above freezing. The temp has hung tight at 32F and we have had a few light showers move through along with drizzle.  There have been icy road reports in the area especially bridges along with trees, decks and other raised surfaces.  This is pretty much the biggest excitement we've had this season....



#86
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 December 2014 - 08:35 AM

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Wow, 12Z GFS putting down close to 1 foot of snow in Central Nebraska.  Starting to get excited, lets see how others show this.  Snow ready in.



#87
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 December 2014 - 03:03 PM

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Yes please on 18z gfs for Nebraska. 1 foot of white gold would be a tremendous Christmas present.

#88
NEJeremy

Posted 10 December 2014 - 03:30 PM

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Yeah 18Z GFS has a nice storm at the end of next week too for Nebraska. Hopefully this one can put down snow into eastern Nebraska



#89
Andrew NE

Posted 10 December 2014 - 04:25 PM

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This storm is still a ways out I know, but local mets are definately down playing the potential it has even being on the eastern side of it.

#90
Illinois_WX

Posted 10 December 2014 - 05:15 PM

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18z GFS really blasts Central Nebraska with both systems. Only gives us here in Eastern Nebraska about 3". Both the 12z/18z were persistent with the bullseye right near the Grand Island/Kearney area. A cold, heavy rain is looking more and more plausible for our area out here in Eastern Nebraska. Won't throw in the towel yet, but I am most definitely not excited about this event. Really hope you guys all out in Central Nebraska get drilled though! Definitely has been fun to track so far.


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'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#91
clintbeed1993

Posted 10 December 2014 - 05:56 PM

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18z GFS really blasts Central Nebraska with both systems. Only gives us here in Eastern Nebraska about 3". Both the 12z/18z were persistent with the bullseye right near the Grand Island/Kearney area. A cold, heavy rain is looking more and more plausible for our area out here in Eastern Nebraska. Won't throw in the towel yet, but I am most definitely not excited about this event. Really hope you guys all out in Central Nebraska get drilled though! Definitely has been fun to track so far.

 

Man, I would feel horrible if you guys in Lincoln and Omaha saw just cold rain with a light slush to show for it.  Hopefully this thing can produce for all of us, but it certainly seems like cold air will have a tough time making it that far east in time.



#92
clintbeed1993

Posted 10 December 2014 - 08:14 PM

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Terrible run on the new GFS.



#93
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 December 2014 - 08:20 PM

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Just saw the same thing. That is a huge drop in amounts on this run. See what tomorrow's bring to see if we need to panic.

#94
NEJeremy

Posted 10 December 2014 - 08:57 PM

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yeah that run wiped out both storms for next week :(



#95
tim the weatherman

Posted 10 December 2014 - 09:15 PM

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that the what models do this one day shows a storm and the next boom it's gone and the next brings it right back.


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#96
CentralNebWeather

Posted 11 December 2014 - 09:30 AM

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I am learning the longer I follow this site, not to jump to quickly on 1 or 2 runs (it is tough for me).  This storm for the 14th-15th was farther south, then west, then disappeared, now is back farther north.  Tom is correct that we won't know until the event.  Local weather mets. have talked about the rain/snow line and how it will be almost impossible to know who gets what amount until a few hours before.  Late Sunday night through Monday morning will give us a better idea.  I sure like the extended runs also of at least some potential events.



#97
CentralNebWeather

Posted 11 December 2014 - 11:41 AM

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From NWS Hastings:

 

 Looking farther ahead, a strong low pressure system is forecast to affect the Central Plains during the Sunday-Monday time frame, possibly resulting in some accumulating snow between Sunday evening and Monday evening. However, it is still too early to get too excited or too concerned over this storm, as forecast models are still showing inconsistent signals regarding whether this will be only a light snow event, or possibly a more impactful one with the potential for several inches. Stay tuned, as the first stab at snowfall forecasts will come out Friday and Saturday. On a positive note, parts of the area could see a pretty decent rainfall prior to the onset of any snow, stemming the tide of what has been a rather dry late-fall season.



#98
NEJeremy

Posted 14 December 2014 - 05:37 PM

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6 degrees above normal so far this month(not even including today). It looks like the CPC did a good job for the first part of the month



#99
clintbeed1993

Posted 14 December 2014 - 08:34 PM

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If there is a light at the end of this tunnel, I'm sure not seeing it.  Getting a winter storm seems hopeless at this point.  Pretty sad how pathetic our winters have gotten.



#100
educatorjen

Posted 15 December 2014 - 05:36 AM

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I agree.  Thank god I talked my 8 year old out of all snow related Christmas presents.  :) You know...since it appears it is never going to snow again.  Ugh







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