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December 2014 Observations and Discussion

Tom

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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After what has been thus far a historically cold Novemb-rrrrr, many signals are pointing for another repeat month that could also be one to reckon with.  Could this be a December to Remember???  I know many of you wont forget what November has brought thus far.  

 

We have another major SSW event occurring over Eurasia and this will be the pattern we see throughout the winter months as this will result in blocking over the arctic regions.  Lets discuss the potential storm systems and major cold to follow as we open up December.

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Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

i think the point of people like Money/Tom etc is not that everyone that disagrees with them about cold/snow returning by the last 10 days or so of the month needs to be admitted-- but that ever since

gosaints
gosaints

Alrighty then... Next time someone posts torches in lala land better not here any push back from you or others than either...

stratosjeff
stratosjeff

Dude, let it go. I'm sorry people attack you. I can understand some of the frustration though. You don't use any punctuation in your posts, you basically posted a farmers almanac storm (360 hrs). I as

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Looks like an over-running event on the GFS with high ratio snows.  GGEM not to enthusiastic about it right now.  Doesn't look like an organized system will develop but what I do see happening is for some over-running snows to break out along the arctic boundary.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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GFS does not have much at all showing up in the next 10 days as far as winter goes. 

Patience, it didn't show the same thing 5 days ago and its turning the corner.  Can't be a model hugger, esp with the GFS...Euro has also been misbehaving in the medium/longer range.

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

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Patience, it didn't show the same thing 5 days ago and its turning the corner. Can't be a model hugger, esp with the GFS...Euro has also been misbehaving in the medium/longer range.

I am a model hugger but the hugging taking place in this forum beyond the 5 day range is way overdone

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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Patience, it didn't show the same thing 5 days ago and its turning the corner.  Can't be a model hugger, esp with the GFS...Euro has also been misbehaving in the medium/longer range.

Yep, I know models can change from run to run, especially the GFS, but still most of the models are pretty boring.

 

Side note...Happy Thanksgiving to all of you winter weather peeps!!

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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just heard from tom skilling from wgn tv website and the way he is saying is we better get ready for a colder winter and if we do get any storms they might be big ones too.

 

Hey - was there a video posted on the website of him giving the winter forecast?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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I don't mind the look of the newly issued December forecast from CPC.  If you take into account the warm along the west coast and east coast, that should translate to a deeper trough in the central CONUS.  Even though it has equal chances for our region, you shouldn't forget their forecast for last year's winter where it had almost the entire area from the Rockies east in Equal Chances. 

 

As for precip, with El Nino conditions already happening, this should ignite the southern jets stream this month and fire up some juicy systems.  I like the idea of above normal precip in the southern part of the U.S.  BTW, that does not mean you won't see above normal precip north of there.  Fun times ahead this month.

 

 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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One of the biggest problems both the GFS/EURO have been illustrating in the Day 10-15 is handling what happens to energy once it hits the GOA.  Both models have been having a bias to keep a NW NAMER trough and then eventually begin correcting as we get closer.  This has big implications to temperatures and trough positions down stream for us in the central CONUS.

 

I'm going to post the last 3 consecutive runs of the Euro Ensembles for the target date 00z Dec 7th.

 

Notice on yesterday's 12z run it had a big trough hugging NW NAMER, last nights 00z run the trough is a bit farther off shore, then today's 12z run...bingo, no more trough and we see a ridge building in.  Build the ridge, unleash the fridge.  Also, notice whats starting to poke up near the arctic just north of Alaska.  Rising heights will mean a bigger trough down stream.  

 

Another key component the model is seeing now is the placement of the PV in central/northern Canada.  Right where it has been showing up all season long thus far.

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tim the weatherman Newbie

tim the weatherman

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Woah, 18z GFS finally might be catching onto the idea of major cold around the 7th/8th...

i  was wondering what is going on about that storm by nextweek because the accuweather fourms is mentioning that we will be on the warm sector with the dewpoints up to 60 because the trough will be positvely tilted instead of being negativily tilted and has the storm further north.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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i  was wondering what is going on about that storm by nextweek because the accuweather fourms is mentioning that we will be on the warm sector with the dewpoints up to 60 because the trough will be positvely tilted instead of being negativily tilted and has the storm further north.

We'll see, but a storm cutting that far west at this time of year is suspicious.  So I'm very skeptical we see a cutter through the high Plains.  This storm system hit southern Japan so maybe a Plains/Midwest storm is a better idea.  The PNA will be a bit negative so a SE ridge will certainly help cut this storm somewhere near the Lakes.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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JB not buying an extended period of "mild" weather. 

 

How he explains the reasoning behind the dominant storm tracks this Winter is that the cool area in the north central Pacific will promote storminess and on the front side storms will have a tendency to build ridging over the warmth off the West Coast. That in turn will promote a trough into the central US. 

Secondarily the weak El Niño will ignite a southern jet stream that will carry over into the southern US. Storms will be able to tap into that added moisture potential this winter. 

 

Also the warmer water off the East Coast will probably tend to favor some ridging. In an active hurricane season, that area can fall below normal from the storminess, but we haven't had that this year to speak of.

 

post-7-0-85702000-1416957849_thumb.png

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Is EURO showing this storm? Im amazed at how consistent the GFS has been with it. And wow, some widespread -20 850s on the 7th-8th.

Euro has been showing it, but holding the energy too long in the Rockies which is the models errors.  I think by Friday we should be getting a better handle on this one.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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JB not buying an extended period of "mild" weather. 

 

How he explains the reasoning behind the dominant storm tracks this Winter is that the cool area in the north central Pacific will promote storminess and on the front side storms will have a tendency to build ridging over the warmth off the West Coast. That in turn will promote a trough into the central US. 

Secondarily the weak El Niño will ignite a southern jet stream that will carry over into the southern US. Storms will be able to tap into that added moisture potential this winter. 

 

Also the warmer water off the East Coast will probably tend to favor some ridging. In an active hurricane season, that area can fall below normal from the storminess, but we haven't had that this year to speak of.

 

attachicon.gif112514globalSSTs.png

Classic split flow that has been the pattern this season thus far.  Don't see that changing as we head into Winter full force this month.

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The Snowman Collaborator

The Snowman

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i  was wondering what is going on about that storm by nextweek because the accuweather fourms is mentioning that we will be on the warm sector with the dewpoints up to 60 because the trough will be positvely tilted instead of being negativily tilted and has the storm further north.

Re: bolded, I'd agree when you look at the Typhoon Rule correlation.

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