December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

I never did like cold, snowy Novembers because that usually means a flip in the weather pattern by December and that is what is going to happen. The pattern changes, relaxes to a more zonal flow and it could stay like that for awhile. I prefer to have a mild November and save all the bitter cold and storminess for DJ and possibly F. Now, that doesn't mean this December will be a mild one, but guess what, the first couple of days in December this year, mild air dominates. Lets see how December will unfold and how long it will remain mild. Also, on that storm that is predicted somewhere between the 4th and 7th of Dec., rain is in my forecast, so that goes to show you that there will be no cold air around. Things can change by then, we'll see.

 

I did some research on two cities and these are the results after a cold November:

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2014/11/will_the_november_cold_lead_to.html

 

http://www.roanoke.com/weather/columns_and_blogs/columns/weather_journal/weather-journal-cold-novembers-don-t-always-lead-to-cold/article_c4d64c60-9d0f-5b78-a8b3-9d2dc1f51b0e.html

 

This statement from the second article above:

 

History proves you can’t really extrapolate much about the winter ahead just from what happens in November. It does at least suggest, though, that there is a coin’s-flip chance of having a long mild period at some point.

[tim the weatherman]

http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2014/11/skilfeat112514-884x1024.jpg

[Tom]

06z GFS now showing a much different look for this system and not having the storm cut way up north through the High Plains. With the models now starting to respond to the -AO developing, a system tracking through the central CONUS seems more reasonable.

 

FWIW, 00z Euro now showing more troughiness as we open up December.  It's not surprising since its AO forecast is showing more blocking.

 

 

[Snowshoe]

NWS GRB morning disco.

 

 

 

RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S. IT WILL TURN COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM
UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

[tim the weatherman]

06z GFS now showing a much different look for this system and not having the storm cut way up north through the High Plains. With the models now starting to respond to the -AO developing, a system tracking through the central CONUS seems more reasonable.

 

FWIW, 00z Euro now showing more troughiness as we open up December.  It's not surprising since its AO forecast is showing more blocking.

that wouls put the storm track across our area so that would put thesnow on the northren side and the mix along i70 and the rain everything else on the eastside and we might have the "b"word.

[Niko]

I am so looking forward to a monster snowstorm in my forecast. C'mon December.....give us all on this forum somthing to look forward too.

[Snowshoe]

My average high will be dropping below 32 shortly. One thing I try to keep in mind is that above normal temps don't always mean above freezing temps.

[GDR]

Looks like a pattern realignment is coming. The MJO is projected to move through phases 3-6 which creates a warmer December. Also the PNA looks too flip to negative which also signals warmer air. It's something too keep an eye on the next couple weeks. Maybe above normal temps for the first half!

[Tom]

Looks like a pattern realignment is coming. The MJO is projected to move through phases 3-6 which creates a warmer December. Also the PNA looks too flip to negative which also signals warmer air. It's something too keep an eye on the next couple weeks. Maybe above normal temps for the first half!

It's a temporary spike negative before turning back positive.  Even though the MJO is heading towards it's "warm" phases in December, opposing variables like a -AO and Arctic HP/PV to the north are pushing the colder air farther south out of Canada.  The northern tier of the lower 48 will most likely escape a blow torch like the models were showing about a week ago.

[Niko]

Will El Nino pay a visit this winter???!!!  Hmmmm

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/brian-kahn-explains-the-developing-el-nino-18048?gclid=CN6ZmJLOmMICFQmtaQodmp4A9A

[CentralNebWeather]

Liking the looks of the 06Z GFS or at least the signal it is sending.  Thanks for the info Tom and tim the weatherman.

[Money]

12z is continuing the trend in developing that storm farther south (dec 3rd storm)

[tim the weatherman]

It's a temporary spike negative before turning back positive.  Even though the MJO is heading towards it's "warm" phases in December, opposing variables like a -AO and Arctic HP/PV to the north are pushing the colder air farther south out of Canada.  The northern tier of the lower 48 will most likely escape a blow torch like the models were showing about a week ago.

it looks like the mjo is headed towards phase 8 so that means we will have a cold instead of a warm december.

[GDR]

Maybe cold the last part of December but the first 10 or so will average normal or above normal temps.

[Money]

GFS with 6-10 inches of snow from Minnesota/N. IA into souther/central WI for the 3rd-5th. 

 

Low goes from S.KS/N. OK into MO and just south of Chicago. 

[GDR]

As of right now it looks like a decent storm brewing for 1st week of December but it also looks a little warm so hopefully it trends the other way!

[tim the weatherman]

could geos or tom give an update on the ao forecast thanks.

[Geos]

Ok, iFred!

 

Looking at the 12z GFS through 192 hours... looks to stay normal to below normal the whole time north of I-80. Not sure where WGN met's are getting upper 40s from this weekend, because it looks more like upper 30s instead. 

 

Cold air really presses into that storm on the 3-4th.

[tim the weatherman]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_216_1000_500_thick.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_204_1000_500_thick.gifhours 216 and 228http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_228_1000_500_thick.gif

[WildWisconsinWeather]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_216_1000_500_thick.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_204_1000_500_thick.gifhours 216 and 228http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_228_1000_500_thick.gif

 

Cold rain and 35F it looks like, at least during the daytime hours.

[Trinomial]

Ok, iFred!

 

Looking at the 12z GFS through 192 hours... looks to stay normal to below normal the whole time north of I-80. Not sure where WGN met's are getting upper 40s from this weekend, because it looks more like upper 30s instead. 

 

Cold air really presses into that storm on the 3-4th.

Geos, Are you referring to this weekend? My grid is even showing mid 40's through next week. Are you thinking it won't even hit 40 on Saturday?

[Money]

That was 6z.

 

Here's 12z:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_177_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Geos]

Cold rain and 35F it looks like, at least during the daytime hours.

 

12z GFS is suggesting ice in southern WI with this storm system. Strong northerly flow on the flip side of the front.

 

For those wanting to see the AO forecast.

 

 

[Money]

12z GGEM:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

[WildWisconsinWeather]

12z GFS is suggesting ice in southern WI with this storm system. Strong northerly flow on the flip side of the front.

 

For those wanting to see the AO forecast.

 

ecmwf_ao_bias (1).png

 

gfs_ao_bias.png

 

I think I'd rather have rain lol, but it's a tough decision if there is any snow cover left.  If not, give me rain over ice.

[Geos]

GGEM is about a 6-10" snowfall from southeast Iowa to Toronto on that run. (For the medium range storm).

 

 

[tim the weatherman]

was just looking at gary lezak's premilary winter forecast and he said that we could have a few big ones this winter and it could be for the lower greatlakes because the artic oscillation goes negative so that means stronger winterstorms.

[Maxim]

Geos, Are you referring to this weekend? My grid is even showing mid 40's through next week. Are you thinking it won't even hit 40 on Saturday?

Saturday will be well into the 40s, possibly touching 50. Sunday looks a bit tricky though. Could very well stay in the 30s, or be well into the 40s.

[Maxim]

I think I'd rather have rain lol, but it's a tough decision if there is any snow cover left.  If not, give me rain over ice.

Ice is the worst.

[Geos]

Saturday will be well into the 40s, possibly touching 50. Sunday looks a bit tricky though. Could very well stay in the 30s, or be well into the 40s.

 

The new GFS is suggesting the warm front will stall south of I-80, hence the 30s it is showing across the metro. Now the parallel GFS is showing a mild Saturday night into Sunday morning, before temps crash into the teens later!

[GDR]

Looks like it could be a rain freezing rain to a little snow for iowa and Illinois. What's the euro showing?

[tim the weatherman]

The new GFS is suggesting the warm front will stall south of I-80, hence the 30s it is showing across the metro. Now the parallel GFS is showing a mild Saturday night into Sunday morning, before temps crash into the teens later!

this is good news geos and i think that the freezing rain and rain will stay well south of i 80 for next week and we will get mainly snow and it could be heavy too and the "b"word too.

[Money]

Could you get the b word too Tim?

[NEJeremy]

Is this supposed to go negative tilt or have any chance of thundersnow too?

[CentralNebWeather]

Love the b word tim the weatherman.

[tim the weatherman]

Is this supposed to go negative tilt or have any chance of thundersnow too?

the way i heard at accuweather fourms that it is positvely tilted storm but who knows.

[tim the weatherman]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gifhttp://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gifby friday into saturday of nextweek this could turnout to be a big storm.

[GDR]

We could be looking at something big if we get thundersnow!

[GDR]

Let's hope for a negative tilt and the b word!

[Maxim]

Blizzards around here are quite uncommon. A true blizzard happens maybe once every 6 or 8 years.