December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[GDR]

[tim the weatherman]

ncep gfs has a rain for illinois next friday.

[tim the weatherman]

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/47.jpgthis will be the set up this winter.

[indianajohn]

[tim the weatherman]

also gary lezak said in his premarlity winter forecast that the chances of a white chrismas is rising.

[GDR]

Might get a couple of good blizzards this winter.

[tim the weatherman]

hoping a lot of cold air will come down and turn the rain to snow.

[Grizzcoat]

long- long ways to go-- but 18Z gFS has decent snow/ice event for most of IA next WEd into Thursday..

[Money]

12+ in S. WI

[tim the weatherman]

12+ in S. WI

what about northren and central il

[Money]

Pretty much nothing snow wise in N IL

[Geos]

Yeah that storm looks interesting.

 

 

 

 

Yuck to ice though!

[WBadgersW]

12+ in S. WI

Oh no, we are already in the bullseye

[Tom]

I'm back in biz...bought a last minute plane ticket last night and took off to AZ for Thanksgiving earlier today .  Got out of the airport and it was 70F and sunny!  Man, what a different climate out here and a shock to my system.  I'll try to take come pics out here.  This storm coming around on the 3rd/4th is going to come through AZ and at this time of year, the mountains where I currently am get snow capped and looks real nice.  Hoping it is a cold enough system.

 

 

Besides all that, this storm is looking like it could produce some significant snows nearby.  Hope a lot of us on this forum can get some real snows!

[james1976]

Looking a bit warm first part of December. Not much of a storm now for late next week either.

[GDR]

Almost 60 Saturday and 40s through next week. Not much in the way of precipitation also.

[Geos]

Yeah it does look like a very quite week ahead. Rather would have the back half of December wintry. Rather get the milder and benign weather over with sooner rather than later. Doesn't seem like Christmas or New Years without some snowstorms to track.

[Money]

0z GFS says "what warmup?" in the longrange. 

[Money]

It has maybe one or two days above freezing in N.IL and WI from HR 204-384. Several days with highs in the 15-20 range. 

[GDR]

Looks like accuweather has 10 days in the 40s for Chicago coming up

[Madtown]

Looks like all 40's removed from south central wi. Warmest day next week is now 31

[tim the weatherman]

my forecast has 40s and a 50 in it.

[Money]

12z gfs continuing the cold look with 4-5 days straight of highs below 20 in the long range

[tim the weatherman]

12z gfs continuing the cold look with 4-5 days straight of highs below 20 in the long range

what days these are.

[Geos]

I got 20s and 30s for the first 4 days of the month now. Pretty dry looking though.

[GDR]

I havea feeling this winter won't be anything like last year. You normally don't see back to back bad winters

[Tom]

I havea feeling this winter won't be anything like last year. You normally don't see back to back bad winters

Sure you do, in the late 70's there were 2 or 3 really severe winters.  1916/17 -1917/18 were also severe winters from the Rockies eastward.  Back to back winters as bad as last year are not at all that common, but they can happen and I'm sure this winter will deliver.

[tim the weatherman]

To summarize:

- A stratospheric intrusion may result in a cold air outbreak in the middle of December.

[WBadgersW]

Weren't models showing a major warm up for the first week of December earlier? The only above average day is tomorrow and that's only by +4℉. The rest of next week looks to be at to slightly below average.

[GDR]

Sure over 30 years ago but what since?

[Tom]

Sure over 30 years ago but what since?

To my knowledge, there hasn't been back to back severe winters since the late 70's that hit a lot of this nation.  There were single seasons of intense winter conditions (Ex: 1993-94)  The frigid winters of the late 70's were very memorable and the same type of SST's and atmospheric conditions we are experiencing now, should have the same result.  The winter of 1976-77 had a very cold start in November and let off the gas peddle during the first 2 weeks of December.  This year, even though we are experiencing a period of less intense cold, it is still not a normal season thus far.  With the current SSW event taking place and the LRC repeating into cycle 2, the pattern is reloading and looking to lock in for the Winter.  I think this winter we will see periods of less intense cold unlike last year where it just kept coming.  This year's LRC pattern is much different than last years consistent NW Flow.  However, if the blocking stays persistent, then it may end up being another relentless punishment of arctic air.

[FV-Mike]

Sure over 30 years ago but what since?

From a Chicago snowfall perspective all you have to do is go back to 2007-2010. 4 years in a row of above 50 inches. Way above our season average

[Maxim]

I havea feeling this winter won't be anything like last year. You normally don't see back to back bad winters

Yeah, good call. Definitely will not be as cold last year, nor will we have 80" of snow 

[tim the weatherman]

was just looking at the artic sea ice and it is expanding in size and it is entering the hudson bay and the hudson bay will be completly frozen by a couple of days.

[The Snowman]

Warmth til Mid-December's the way to go.

[Niko]

That's what you get when you have a cold, snowy November. 

[Madtown]

Not sure where all this talk is coming from. Yes we are going to warm up to average...but no torch for this area 34 for this area is spot on.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Not sure where all this talk is coming from. Yes we are going to warm up to average...but no torch for this area 34 for this area is spot on.

 

I agree, I think people are looking restlessly at the models because it looks to be around average but dry and boring (most of the precip in the warm sector).  It's all relative as well, it looks like a torch compared to this cold November.

[Maxim]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-68-0-55971000-1417280471.png

 

[winterfreak]

Looks like an absolute torch coast to coast and into Canada.