December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

No snow for bothell tonight

[richard mann]

As much as we think we understand the atmosphere there is much we do not understand about the complex processes that result in our ultimate weather.  Computer modeling has made tremendous  leaps the past twenty years and has gotten better in the mid ranges but  is currently having a difficult time coming to a consensus with the current pattern change.  This is one reason the NWS does not go all out when one or two models show cold/snowy weather more than a week ahead.  One, because it is generally outside of their forecast time frame and second its the PNW, west of the Cascades and it is not typical winter weather for us.

 

The thing about extended weather forecasting, and I am by no means an expert, is you never get there.  By that I mean everyday you get another bite at the apple and get to revise your forecast plus one more day.  As we have seen, especially during the winter months, it is difficult enough to just forecast anything let alone snow.  Snow at most of our locations is probably one of the most difficult aspects to forecast as it often under marginal conditions or worst.  Then out of no where we wake up to a surprise event not forecast but because the marginal conditions just barely favored us.

 

The trend right now is to move the ridge closer to the west coast .....

Per my impression more general, I'd say that most of the people interested in the idea of "model riding" here in the PNW, .. are most probably, fairly familiar with the limits of what they're looking at, or choose to.

 

— Certainly good to be reminded of the idea every once in a while. As too much (?) model riding along with speculation connected, can be thought of at least, as detracting from the idea of whats actually going on, and so people's pondering what might take place where looking ahead, more for themselves. Again, .. I'd say.

 

The term is one accepted to some extent now these days btw.  -  http://www.urbandict...rm=model riding

 

.. No online support group as yet apparently. @

[Front Ranger]

Retrogression happens at day 10...doesn't look like a particularly spectacular result, but who cares, we're talking lala land.

[MikeInEverett]

No snow for bothell tonight

We don't know that for sure yet!

[luvssnow_spokane]

"Holy Hallucination Batman models are sure batty tonight!..."

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Deep in la-la land looks like it's setting up for weather model porn. 

 

Hope is renewed.

[PV=nRT]

Some very cold air makes it into the U.S. on this run. Sub -30C in ND 7 days out.

 

Just put my daughter on a plane back to Madison, Wisconsin this evening where she lives.  Her job wouldn't allow her to be home over Christmas.  She knows it is going to get very cold back there and snow...but hey its Wisconsin and that is the norm for them. Its not a matter of if it is going to snow in Madison but rather when and how much!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The depth of the cold with the weekend trough is important because it will set the stage for what if any "fake cold" sets up for early-mid next week. 

[Snow]

Good evening friends, I'm been busy all day Christmas shopping so haven't been able to look at any models. I just briefly looked at the new 00z GFS and it looks great. I'll try to post again tonight if I don't get tired wrapping presents.

[bainbridgekid]

The depth of the cold with the weekend trough is important because it will set the stage for what if any "fake cold" sets up for early-mid next week. 

Definitely.

 

The 00z's solution would be quite cold at the surface through next week even as the ridge slides East over us.

[TT-SEA]

Just put my daughter on a plane back to Madison, Wisconsin this evening where she lives.  Her job wouldn't allow her to be home over Christmas.  She knows it is going to get very cold back there and snow...but hey its Wisconsin and that is the norm for them. Its not a matter of if it is going to snow in Madison but rather when and how much!

 

 

No snow there now... and warm through Friday with some rain.   

[HighlandExperience]

No snow there now... and warm through Friday with some rain.   

 

They earned some warm rain for a change. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good evening friends, I'm been busy all day Christmas shopping so haven't been able to look at any models. I just briefly looked at the new 00z GFS and it looks great. I'll try to post again tonight if I don't get tired wrapping presents.

 

Or maybe you just didn't post because you couldn't say...."SCORE!"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG. Model Porn!

[catnip]

[Model Countdown]

Next up....

00z NAM 27 minutes

00z GFS 2 hours 7 minutes

00z GEM 3 hours 27 minutes

00z ECMWF 4 hours 37 minutes

I fear we'll see a suite of pure manure runs unfold before our very disappointed eyes(or eye if you're a Pirate) tonight. Hope for the best. Get out your lucky Rabbits foot, Conjure up the friendly weather Gods, Channel your inner-Frosty and make Snow happen for all the Boys and Girls, ummm, perform the exciting Toe/Finger crossing combo for good fortune. ©Rob Grimes 2014

Maybe you are on to something DJ.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Okay, I'm back.....

 

Anytime you have weather geeks trying to bifurcate Megan Fox(See Dewey), I MEANT THE PV* which is a real complex and volatile pattern, model swings like this and handling of 500mb pattern would make sense. I would normally scream that 00z GFS Op is an, "OUTLIER!", but seeing dramatic improvements at HR 48-96 in the short term may argue against that. We'll find out. Fun stuff nonetheless.

[TT-SEA]

Nice...

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.108.0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Ummm HR 180 00z GEM has temps of -55 to -65 in Yukon!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122400/gem_T2m_namer_31.png

[TT-SEA]

Okay, I'm back.....

 

Anytime you have weather geeks trying to bifurcate Megan Fox(See Dewey), I MEANT THE PV* which is a real complex and volatile pattern, model swings like this and handling of 500mb pattern would make sense. I would normally scream that 00z GFS Op is an, "OUTLIER!", but seeing dramatic improvements at HR 48-96 in the short term may argue against that. We'll find out. Fun stuff nonetheless.

 

 

Parallel is in perfect agreement.   Crazy.

[bainbridgekid]

Brrrrr

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.135.0000.gif

[PV=nRT]

No snow there now... and warm through Friday with some rain.   

 

Somewhat on the mild side the past several days but it will likely turn colder going into next week.  They average 27/12 this time of year so its just a matter of time.  This is her second winter in Madison after spending four years in Burlington, Vermont.  Burlington averages twice as much snow as Madison, 85" compared to around 45".

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM says the GFS is wrong.   Ironically... the GEM has been most consistent.   And crappy!

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[antipex]

Wow, quite a change in the GFS tonight. It also appears that - if this all comes true - PDX would get continued east wind pumping cold air from the east side. Yes please?

[Gradient Keeper]

Overall GEM is not a good or cold run for us through HR 240. Model disagreement and lack of continuity continues.

[snow_wizard]

All in all the 0z GFS is a very cold run. Pretty much solidly below normal for the entire run. The retrogression idea in week two continues. Even the cold snap in the shorter term is no slouch.

[TT-SEA]

Down to 37 here... probably going to bottom out soon.   Guessing it will stay around 35 most of the night with lumpy rain eventually.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know whats funny. The 00z is the coldest run yet for the weekend trough. Brings -7C 850s to SLE with 523 thickness, extracted data shows them barely hitting freezing Monday and a low in the teens on Tuesday morning.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM leaves us in warm air and then has copious 55-degree rain next Monday... compared to sunny and cold on the 00Z GFS!

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow! All this uncertainty reminds me of the pre-internet/model days.

[Front Ranger]

Down to 37 here... probably going to bottom out soon.   Guessing it will stay around 35 most of the night with lumpy rain eventually.

 

It would seem like you have a decent chance of accumulation, if you get good precip intensity later.

[wx_statman]

Ummm HR 180 00z GEM has temps of -55 to -65 in Yukon!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122400/gem_T2m_namer_31.png

 

That area hasn't even sniffed real cold air this season. Fairbanks is running 10 degrees above average for the month after finishing November more than 8 degrees above average. They have yet to see -20F this season, which is just sad. Not without precedent in a Nino though.

[snow_wizard]

For now I would have to discount the GEM. It is so different than any recent run of any model.

[snow_wizard]

It certainly does seem people are discounting the possibilities for tonight way too easily. We shall see I guess.

[Gradient Keeper]

You know whats funny. The 00z is the coldest run yet for the weekend trough. Brings -7C 850s to SLE with 523 thickness, extracted data shows them barely hitting freezing Monday and a low in the teens on Tuesday morning.

00z GFS Extracted Data for those who don't want to scan through the models. For what it's worth, at face value this is by FAR the coldest run yet inside day 7 except for maybe Bellingham.

 

Portland-Troutdale

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2014122400&text=KTTD

The Dalles

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2014122400&text=KDLS

Moses Lake

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2014122400&text=KMWH

Bellingham

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2014122400&text=KBLI

[Front Ranger]

Wow! All this uncertainty reminds me of the pre-internet/model days.

 

No matter how good our computer models get, the atmosphere is so complex, there will always be uncertainties.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Extracted Data for those who don't want to scan through the models. For what it's worth, at face value this is by FAR the coldest run yet inside day 7 except for maybe Bellingham.

 

Portland-Troutdale

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2014122400&text=KTTD

The Dalles

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2014122400&text=KDLS

Moses Lake

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2014122400&text=KMWH

Bellingham

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2014122400&text=KBLI

Even the extended doesn't exactly warm up much !

[TT-SEA]

For now I would have to discount the GEM. It is so different than any recent run of any model.

 

???

 

Did you look at the 12Z models???     They were a train wreck.  

 

The Canadian has been very consistent the last 3 runs... looking just like the 00Z run tonight through the middle of next week.

 

The 12Z ECMWF also had the warm rain coming in from the south on Monday and Tuesday.

[bainbridgekid]

Down to 37 here... probably going to bottom out soon.   Guessing it will stay around 35 most of the night with lumpy rain eventually.

I bet you get down to 33-34 with legitimate wet snow. Wouldn't surprise me at all if you got some slushy accumulation by morning.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty amazing the WRF showed temps wouldn't even drop to 44 here by 10 pm and it's already 42 well before that. Pretty crazy precip intensity indicated here through 4am.

[Front Ranger]

For now I would have to discount the GEM. It is so different than any recent run of any model.

 

Yeah, but the 0z GFS was so different than any other run today. 

 

Guess it comes down to the Euro, yet again.