December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

Well there goes our snow covered basin and gorge

I haven't seen any meaningful snow in any models for the basin. At least the majority of the lower areas. People need to realize that Spokane is not in the basin. Not talking about you.

[Deweydog]

Not, so much.

 

Most of the time, yes.  

[Phil]

I'm not doing that.

 

Rereading you post, nearly every event hinged on the availability of a warning event to break down the PV. You went into great detail on that. This entire season I have been of the mind that this was the basis for your forecast, and TheNewBigMack was able to support that with his incredible depth of knowledge of MJO phasing.

 

 

The strat response is already underway..I don't understand your point.

 

The PV split is going to happen..The catalysts of which will determine the level of upstream wave synchronization. This is irrelevant to the discussion:

 

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/erZuN8/640.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/esvXdr/640.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/ajYpTk/640.jpg

 

 

Jared is lying about how I laid out the cause-effect relationship between the tropical forcing, strat feedback, and the mid-latitude circulations. I did not forecast a drop in the NAM to precede the NPAC/NATL breakers..that's impossible. I did not say the wave-2 strat response would force the PNA retrograde..I said the caralysts behind the strat-response would force a duel breaker regimen, followed by a strong NAM drop, while the tropical forcings favored a PNA retrograde.

[Snow]

Lolz

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122712/gfs_asnow_wus_33.png

SCORE! Highly plausible since this only goes out to hour 192. Thursday overnight looks snowy into Friday. No great westerly or southerly flow as moisture arrives. Lots of low level cold still left. Then reload arrives, we could be cold throughout this duration.

[Front Ranger]

I haven't seen any meaningful snow in any models for the basin. At least the majority of the lower areas. People need to realize that Spokane is not in the basin. Not talking about you.

 

The gorge looks somewhat spotty, but from what I'm seeing, a good 1-3" for much of the basin seems reasonable.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Day 7 GEM ensemble mean is excellent. With this upcoming pattern, the main thing we don't want to see is the -EPO block float too far north into the Arctic...then the block gets undercut. Of course, if everything came together right that could mean a nice overrunning event, but it would also mean the cold spell gets shortened.

 

 

GEMens.png

Prefer cold longer than an overrunning slopfest. Ugh!

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]
Next up....
18z GFS 14 minutes
---------------------------
00z NAM 4 hours 34 minutes
00z GFS 6 hours 14 minutes
00z GEM 7 hours 34 minutes
00z ECMWF 8 hours 54 minutes

[Front Ranger]

 

The strat response is already underway..I don't understand your point.

 

The PV split is going to happen..The catalysts of which will determine the level of upstream wave synchronization. This is irrelevant to the issue I have.

Jared is lying about how I laid out the cause-effect relationship between the tropical forcing, strat feedback, and the mid-latitude circulations. I did not forecast a drop in the NAM to precede the NPAC/NATL breakers..I did not say the wave-2 strat response would force the PNA retrograde..I said the caralysts behind the strat-response would force a duel breaker regimen, followed by a strong NAM drop.

 

Dude...perhaps I misunderstood, and apparently I wasn't the only one. I asked for clarification in your forecast thread, would probably make sense to take this there.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z NAM is indeed cold. Digs the trough further west

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014122718/namconus_z500_vort_nwus_17.png

[richard mann]

.... Unfortunately everything done here is under scrutiny. ....

hey., "Prairedog".

 

.. I've marked as having "liked" what you've said posted above, pretty much.

 

$ —> Though, if with perhaps a slightly different tack regarding the main (as I see it.) "scrutiny" element of what you have. .. Where I look at this idea, I mark scrutiny as pretty much always a good idea. .My view is at least, where finding something I post, scrutinize it to the max.

 

— If anyone does so, not knowing what the heck they're even talking about, I work to help them see better into what I've said suggested. If someone perhaps knowing more about what I have than I do maybe, questions whatever, I do the same. All for the good.

 

With respect, to the "respect" and more "constructive" "criticism" .. aspects of and ideas that you'd pointed to where considering whatever scrutiny, .. As I see it, sometimes these ideas can be missed by whoever is being subjected to the idea.

[richard mann]

Most of the time, yes.

Make sense Man. Or don't. (Take your pick.)

[luvssnow_spokane]

I never said that. Never. Not once.

I also agree you nailed the progression... Nice job sir!! As you shared you are not perfect but you got closer than anyone on this board and appreciate what you have done. Thank you!

[Gradient Keeper]

18z NAM is also suggesting PDX is down as low as 12-18 degrees from HR 63-84..... I doubt it

[bainbridgekid]

There is snow on the trees so my guess is that its accumulating on surfaces other than the interstate. I heard snow levels will be dropping too.

Oh definitely.

 

It's been exactly 32 at the pass all day so no doubt it's piling up.

 

But I might be going snowshoeing up there tomorrow and am hoping to be walking through snow that does not soak through my clothes in ten minutes.

 

Should be a drier layer on top as snow levels fall later this evening.

[Snow]

[Phil]

I also agree you nailed the progression... Nice job sir!! As you shared you are not perfect but you got closer than anyone on this board and appreciate what you have done. Thank you!

Thank you for the kind words. I didn't realize he was unaware of the ongoing strat response. That's occurring as expected, but a wave-2 transition is not a SSW, in of itself.

[snow_wizard]

I did not say the wave-2 strat response would force the PNA retrograde..I said the caralysts behind the strat-response would force a duel breaker regimen, followed by a strong NAM drop, while the tropical forcings favored a PNA retrograde.

I do remember you saying tropical forcing would cause the PNA to go minus.

 

I'm really hopeful everyone involved in this argument can just let it go now.

[snow_wizard]

I would also like to add that those of us who use past history as a key for forecasting did pretty well with this. The signal for a warm December and a significant cold wave in the late Dec to mid Jan period was very strong.

[Prairiedog]

hey., "Prairedog".

 

.. I've marked as having "liked" what you've said posted above, pretty much.

 

Though, if with perhaps a slightly different tack regarding the main (as I see it.) "scrutiny" element of what you have; .. where I look at this idea, I mark scrutiny as pretty much always a good idea. My view is at least, where finding something I post, scrutinize it to the max.

 

— If you (anyone.) does so, not knowing what the heck they're even talking about, I work to help them see better into what I've said suggested. If someone perhaps knowing more about what I have than I do maybe, questions whatever, I do the same. All for the good.

I would agree.  I think what is at stake here is that there are people on this great board that have a wide range of knowledge or levels of understanding.  Sometimes the more "educated" or more "knowledgeable" become impatient with those of lesser degrees of "experiences".  Some do a great job with it, some don't.  Also, what is at stake here are how things are delivered.  I've been an educator (science/biology) for close to 40 years and delivery is everything.  Learning how to speak is golden.  Learning how to deliver a point, defend something, or teach something or as you said, "help them see better", is an art.  Teach one another how to learn.  Otherwise it becomes criticism of the wrong kind, bullying, intimidation, attempts to embarrass, etc, etc.  Over all people do a good job here but when the models light up and we get our few good chances per winter to score cold and snow, something happens.  Sorta like the N. Korean's when they don't like our movies. 

[Front Ranger]

I would also like to add that those of us who use past history as a key for forecasting did pretty well with this. The signal for a warm December and a significant cold wave in the late Dec to mid Jan period was very strong.

 

Let's get there first.

[snow_wizard]

Hi-res NAM gives a little bit of snow to the N. Interior, east Vancouver Island, and maybe Tim's house?

 

 

hiresNAM.png

I'll be dipped! It actually has a nice bulls eye of precip right over my area. Very slim chance it will verify, but you never know.

[snow_wizard]

Let's get there first.

I think you can call round one a done deal. It would take an act of God to stop it.

[bainbridgekid]

I'll be dipped! It actually has a nice bulls eye of precip right over my area. Very slim chance it will verify, but you never know.

That map is only trough 1 PM tomorrow. Definitely looks like about 10 PM - 4 AM will be the best chance for snow showers for us.

[Front Ranger]

I think you can call round one a done deal. It would take an act of God to stop it.

 

Yeah, but calling it a "significant" Arctic event at this point is pretty iffy.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, but calling it a "significant" Arctic event at this point is pretty iffy.

 

You're forecasting a 32 degree high at PDX on Tuesday in a mixed airmass.  That would be significant.  

[bainbridgekid]

10 PM Sunday - 10 AM Monday on the 18z GFS.

 

Very slightly more moist than the 12z.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_048_precip_p12.gif

[Snow]

The new 12z GFS looks spectacular for a huge snow/ice storm for the PNW. Take a look at the analog composites. I love how early January 2004 shows up as #1 and it's perfectly centered on 1/4. Here is a great write up of the long lasting storm.

 

http://www.oregonphotos.com/Ice%20Storm%202004.html

 

http://oi59.tinypic.com/2rdx55g.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

 Remember, the past 2 18z GFS runs have all been warm outliers with the initial blast.....

[Front Ranger]

You're forecasting a 32 degree high at PDX on Tuesday in a mixed airmass.  That would be significant.  

 

If PDX pulls off a coldest day of 32/24 and SEA is like 36/24, that's really not much of an event for this time of year. 

 

But you don't think PDX will be colder than 35 anyway, so ultimately we agree - a fairly weak Arctic intrusion for the PNW, at this point.

[Front Ranger]

10 PM Sunday - 10 AM Monday on the 18z GFS.

 

Very slightly more moist than the 12z.

 

 

 

Yeah, the low is just a bit stronger and slower to drop down the coast this run.

 

Also a bit colder.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z GFS is colder than the 12z...Looks like it may be the coldest run so far with the "initial blast." At least coldest GFS run.

[bainbridgekid]

Yeah, the low is just a bit stronger and slower to drop down the coast this run.

 

Also a bit colder.

Yeah it actually shows about 0.10" for the South sound after 4 AM Monday. 12z was dry by then.

 

Important to keep in mind that it always takes longer than you might think for cold air to translate to the surface in situations like this. The atmosphere will be well mixed so it will be tough to get to 32 tomorrow night I think.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_054_precip_p12.gif

[westcoastexpat]

Remember, the past 2 18z GFS runs have all been warm outliers with the initial blast.....

This is somewhat irrelevant given how models operate.

[richard mann]

..  Over all ...

 

I'd go even a little bit further where regarding "delivery", which I look at more as "form", with saying additionally, that "credit due" .. where considering whatever "posted", involves more than success at having foreseen whatever potential. .And then, with this, where and with still looking at "scrutiny", my attitude if more only, and if again, being that with "deference", and [more scientific] "clarity", in mind more generally, anything goes.

 

— Certainly though at times, the more edgy discussion, can be "fun".

[westcoastexpat]

You're forecasting a 32 degree high at PDX on Tuesday in a mixed airmass. That would be significant.

I think some posters are thinking "significant" means "historic"

 

Not a historic event but surely significant.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmmm...Looking at the 18z GFS I think I could potentially see some decent accumulations. 

[Deweydog]

If PDX pulls off a coldest day of 32/24 and SEA is like 36/24, that's really not much of an event for this time of year. 

 

But you don't think PDX will be colder than 35 anyway, so ultimately we agree - a fairly weak Arctic intrusion for the PNW, at this point.

 

Weren't you preaching logic earlier?  Your forecast is for a freezing/sub-freezing day at PDX (you said 30-32 yesterday and nothing has really changed model-wise).  They've had nine (9) such days (full sunshine and freezing/sub-freezing) in the last 16 years.  You could make it 10 if you counted February 17th, 2006, but even then we're talking barely over half a day a year.  It would be significant.  

[westcoastexpat]

I would also like to add that those of us who use past history as a key for forecasting did pretty well with this. The signal for a warm December and a significant cold wave in the late Dec to mid Jan period was very strong.

Unfortunately I disagree with your comment as well, given what I have observed these last couple of months in here. In any case, we should surely celebrate this initial cold for those of us up north which is on our doorstep. At least it is in the believable range.

[Front Ranger]

Weren't you preaching logic earlier?  Your forecast is for a freezing/sub-freezing day at PDX (you said 30-32 yesterday and nothing has really changed model-wise).  They've had nine (9) such days (full sunshine and freezing/sub-freezing) in the last 16 years.  You could make it 10 if you counted February 17th, 2006, but even then we're talking barely over half a day a year.  It would be significant.  

 

I mean, if high temps at PDX were the only barometer for measuring Arctic events, sure.

 

I don't think that's the case, though. Let's see what happens.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 18z GFS is colder than the 12z...Looks like it may be the coldest run so far with the "initial blast." At least coldest GFS run.

Surprisingly since the 18z had been running warmer.... nice