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12/15-12/16 Potential Plains/Upper Midwest Winter Storm


Tom

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Could this be the first widespread significant Plains snowstorm of this season???  The models are getting a better handle on this system and targeting Nebraska as the epicenter.  Both the GFS/EURO model keep the heaviest snows in NE at the moment.  Let's discuss the storm potential here.

 

 

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Boy the GFS has bounced around with the highest totals.  I keep saying, and local mets also, that it might be hours prior to the event until they know where the rain/snow line will be.  We may total over 1 inch of rain here in Central Nebraska on Sunday before a change to freezing rain/sleet Sunday night, then change to snow into Monday.  When and where that changeover occurs will determine heaviest snow totals.  Should be a fun weekend of tracking.

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Still like the pink over my house.  Would love it to go negative tilt.  Storm not being talked up very much around here.  I think the mets think it will stay too warm for too long for accumulations.  I would think some sort of advisory might be coming tomorrow if trends continue.  Thanks again Tom.

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00z gfs clobbers Nebraska then moves to Iowa. 2 storms for Nebraska. Up through hour 138.

 

Man this system on Monday is going to be a nail biter for sure.  Won't be fun if we only get cold rain with heavy snow just to our North and West.  Good thing more cold air will be available for the system towards the end of next week, if that even pans out.

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I think it is pretty safe to say at this point that at least here in Omaha we won't be seeing anything big out of this storm. There was a run or two of the NAM and GFS that showed hope of a stronger piece of energy rotating around the backside of the storm Monday night after it was cold enough for snow to give us a chance at some decent accumulations, but that has disappeared now for several runs. It looks like a decent moisture producing rain event here with maybe some backside flurries or mix. Accumulating snow looks to be in central Nebraska up into SoDak.

Still some nice moisture at least and now to look onto the next week for something hopefully to move through

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This is very hard to swallow.  Low is taking a great track for snowstorms in Central/Eastern Nebraska, which are the areas that got the brunt of the screwjob last winter.  This time we have the storm but are missing the cold air.  In the middle of December and we still can't squeeze snow out of a big storm to our south.  We desperately need something to lift our spirits because we are all on the edge of insanity.

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Hopefully some of you in the Plains can manage to squeeze out some surprise snowfall outta this.  I know that there are a few in C NE.  Storm is definitely taking shape and the models are targeting the north/central part of NE.

I would seriously just need a shift of about 50 miles and I'm seeing 3-5". Don't think it will happen, hard to believe how warm it is for the middle of December.

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Tom, between 3 and 4 inches at my house in Holdrege.  Snowing again with blowing.  Looks like a winter wonderland outside.  Sorry for those who haven't gotten any snow.

Nice!  Take some pics if you can.  Glad you got your share of the white stuff.  It's too bad this system was caught in a warm cycle.  It looks beautiful on radar imagery and would have been a big snowstorm if it had been cold enough.  This storm should be fun to track later on in January in LRC Cycle 3.

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Tom, between 3 and 4 inches at my house in Holdrege.  Snowing again with blowing.  Looks like a winter wonderland outside.  Sorry for those who haven't gotten any snow.

 

:)  Congrats out there to any and all the NE folks who scored something with this! Been long overdue, and its a good (better) sign for a better season this winter.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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