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I'm On The Record For An Arctic Outbreak By Jan 15

snow_wizard

By snow_wizard
in West of the Rockies

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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Just so there are no doubts, I'm making a firm prediction for an Arctic outbreak for the Western lowlands of the PNW by Jan 15...probably by early Jan.  There is overwhelming historic evidence and models trends are showing all of the tell tale signs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard
snow_wizard

Just so there are no doubts, I'm making a firm prediction for an Arctic outbreak for the Western lowlands of the PNW by Jan 15...probably by early Jan.  There is overwhelming historic evidence and mod

snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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I don't know, I still doubt your intentions.

 

Intentions?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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You don't have any? :)

 

Nope.  I just want there to be no room to wiggle out of what I say or others to wiggle out of what they say.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
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Just so there are no doubts, I'm making a firm prediction for an Arctic outbreak for the Western lowlands of the PNW by Jan 15...probably by early Jan. There is overwhelming historic evidence and models trends are showing all of the tell tale signs.

Hey, give credit where credit is due..this one is mine :P

 

In all honesty, I'm with you. I see record cold in January for a good portion of the U.S. Everyone from coast to coast should see something.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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Hey, give credit where credit is due..this one is mine :P

 

In all honesty, I'm with you. I see record cold in January for a good portion of the U.S. Everyone from coast to coast should see something.

 

I have been sure to mention you have had a good handle on this.  You gave me added confidence because you came to your conclusions looking at different criteria than I did.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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I have been sure to mention you have had a good handle on this. You gave me added confidence because you came to your conclusions looking at different criteria than I did.

Lol, I was joking w/ that comment, but thanks :)

 

I have to say, I'm really getting excited for January..could really be a historic month for someone.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Snow Newbie

Snow

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Just so there are no doubts, I'm making a firm prediction for an Arctic outbreak for the Western lowlands of the PNW by Jan 15...probably by early Jan. There is overwhelming historic evidence and models trends are showing all of the tell tale signs.

I like your prediction Snow Wizard. I'm thinking an Arctic blast arrives sometime during the last week of the month.

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Black Hole Mentor

Black Hole

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Trends are good for this. ECMWF has a nice blast on the 24th. I think that's a bit too soon but I agree with you that we got something coming.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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I am on record saying the chances of something good between 12/25 and 1/5 are quite high... I am in NO WAY saying this will not happen.    Just to be crystal clear!

 

Unless I am clear... when it does happen then everyone will say I was a naysayer.     Not only do I think something will happen but I want it very much in that time period!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Still not clear though on why Jim says its "sour grapes" with me lately??  

 

Sour grapes implies that the weather has been terrible for me and I am a sore loser.

 

Remember... I posted on the forum all summer and fall during one of the nicest April - October periods I have ever experienced.   While certain people sulked their way through our beautiful summer!   And then we go into November and December with lots of dry weather, offshore flow, and I even had snow on the ground for a week already.

 

And this was after a spectacular 2013.

 

I could not be farther from sour grapes right now.     I think Jim just does not like me calling him out for his silliness at times.   Hard to have sour grapes during one of your favorite weather years ever!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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It's not your place to call him, or anyone out. You don't do anyone any favors when you try to point out "the wrong in their ways" and you tend to just look like an a**.

Fair enough. Not disagreeing.

 

 

What I was saying above is that its certainly not "sour grapes".

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sometimesdylan Explorer

Sometimesdylan

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Hey, give credit where credit is due..this one is mine :P

 

In all honesty, I'm with you. I see record cold in January for a good portion of the U.S. Everyone from coast to coast should see something.

 

What about the North coast? :P

 

I hope we get some love too...

"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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It's not your place to call him, or anyone out. You don't do anyone any favors when you try to point out "the wrong in their ways" and you tend to just look like an a**.

Why do you get to use uncensored expletives? That's BS.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Best weather year I have ever experienced.

 

Best late spring, summer, and early fall... that is now followed up with a blocky winter and lots of dry weather and then a good snowfall here on Thanksgiving weekend.

 

And now maybe arctic air around Christmas?

 

I could NOT write the script for 2014 any better!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • 2 weeks later...
MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

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Posted

Sure, I'll jump on board....arctic blast of some magnitude between New Years and Jan 15th.

Do you think we still have a chance? PNA still looks quite negative for that time period and from what I am seeing it wouldn't take much tweaking in the atmosphere to give us a chance. But I am no pro met! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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Well...only Mother Nature could figure out a way to make this a no decision.  I can't claim a full victory on this call, but it certainly wasn't a full miss either.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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richard mann Newbie

richard mann

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... Related generally. 

 

— Basically, a general retrospective where looking at what actually happened. If with what I'd posted at the time my also having been looking at the current potential along with that more ahead somewhat also.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/709-december-2014-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=59704

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