snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 I know we have a thread in progress for notable past events in the history of PNW weather, but there is no question January 1880 is deserving of its own thread. The unbelievable events that took place between the 5th and 10th of that month (give or take) were the stuff legends are made of. From chest deep snows in the Puget Sound region to hurricane force winds that wrecked havoc in Oregon the two separate storms that pummeled the region were among the strongest extratropical storms to ever strike the United States. A very good part of the national meteorological summary from that month dealt with the impacts and details of those storms. A few highlights include the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the NW with values dropping to around 28.40, snow depths 4 to 6 feet in the Puget Sound region, winds in Oregon that were so strong some places had nearly half of the trees blown over, and in some cases terrific winds came from two different directions causing trees to lay criss crossed on the ground. There were also many reports of structures being damaged or destroyed by the tremendous weight of the snow. It just boggles the mind what this climate is capable of given the right set of circumstances! At any rate feel free to add any graphics, pictures, stories, or whatever you want to contribute. The chart below is a composite I spent many hours of research putting together that gives a very clear picture of what the weather was like in Seattle that month. Sadly there were no records kept specifically in Seattle at that time, but I was able to combine records from Bainbridge Island (temperature and water equivalent totals), Olympia (sky condition and wind data), and snowfall totals that were reported in the PI Newspaper for downtown Seattle. I simply used the Bainbridge snowfall totals for the days that had insignificant (relatively speaking) values. Incredibly that winter on the whole almost certainly had over 100 inches of snow in downtown Seattle. I know that Dec, Feb, and Mar all had snow that winter along with the insane January totals. As amazing as the totals were downtown in January, there were plenty of mentions in the paper that areas with any kind of elevation or away from the water had a good deal more. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Pretty amazing example of how out biggest snowstorms occur with such borderline temperatures. 20 inches of snow on the 6th with a LOW of 33? And 38 inches the next day with a low of 32? And only one sub freezing high the entire month. Must have been some ridiculously wet and heavy slop. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Pretty amazing example of how out biggest snowstorms occur with such borderline temperatures. 20 inches of snow on the 6th with a LOW of 33? And 38 inches the next day with a low of 32? And only one sub freezing high the entire month. Must have been some ridiculously wet and heavy slop. Yeah...but those temps were measured at sea level. I'm guessing pretty much everywhere away from the water or over 200 feet had much nicer snow. In Seattle the weight of the snow was supposedly 52 pounds per square foot. Also...those temps were from Bainbridge which according to the records I looked at had a little less snow than Seattle. Temps could have been a degree or two lower in Seattle due to higher snowfall intensity. All I can say is all of the numbers are close to reality, but obviously not perfect. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 I was going to mention that it is interesting that even by lame 21st century standards it was not a notably cold month. Wet and active yes. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Basically there were very strong lows coming in just south of Seattle, so a bit of a suppressed jet. The 4-8" of snow that fell in the Willamette Valley after the windstorm was probably the result of the wrap around band behind the low. I think the amount of available moisture with that is just astounding. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Also if 38" of snow fell on the 7th I would be willing to bet the precip was closer to 4"+ There is no way with a temp of 34/32 that day that SEA was getting a 13:1 ratio. On January 17, 2012 when I had 21" of snow I had 2.96" of precip and that was with a 32/29 temp spread. After reading how you combined the stats from different sites I would come up with these takeaways. The precip and temp numbers are from Bainbridge, there is no way they had more than 20" of snow at that location with those numbers on that day. 2nd takeaway is that my guess is that it was probably a couple degrees colder in Seattle that day to achieve 38", they probably still also had to have had about 4" or so of precip. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Basically there were very strong lows coming in just south of Seattle, so a bit of a suppressed jet. The 4-8" of snow that fell in the Willamette Valley after the windstorm was probably the result of the wrap around band behind the low. I think the amount of available moisture with that is just astounding. Yes...it was like a pineapple express with Arctic air entrained into it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Also if 38" of snow fell on the 7th I would be willing to bet the precip was closer to 4"+ There is no way with a temp of 34/32 that day that SEA was getting a 13:1 ratio. On January 17, 2012 when I had 21" of snow I had 2.96" of precip and that was with a 32/29 temp spread. After reading how you combined the stats from different sites I would come up with these takeaways. The precip and temp numbers are from Bainbridge, there is no way they had more than 20" of snow at that location with those numbers on that day. 2nd takeaway is that my guess is that it was probably a couple degrees colder in Seattle that day to achieve 38", they probably still also had to have had about 4" or so of precip. Thanks for the critique. I may adjust some of the numbers. At least split the difference. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Definitely a cold onshore flow/dead gradient type pattern south of Bellingham, a lot like January 2012. It seems like pretty good agreement that you had 50"+ on the ground after the 2nd storm from Tacoma to Seattle. Very heavy, wet snow that undoubtedly caused a lot of roofs to cave in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Yes...it was like a pineapple express with Arctic air entrained into it. Probably the most interesting meteorological set up we ever get here in the PNW. Certainly produces eye-popping numbers when it happens, with events like November 1921, January 1935 and December 1996 also coming to mind among a few others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Definitely a freak occurrence, but also showing us that in a borderline climate for snow like ours, these kinds of things are possible without extreme temps. I think the one thing that has been noted repeatedly is that in our borderline climate we don't seem to be getting these "borderline" events (Obviously I'm talking about more minor events in general as opposed to this extreme event.), as frequently. Does the 1-2F in warming make that difference? Would that translate into these individual events? If January 1880 happened now would Bainbridge have recorded a 35/33 day and accumulated a few inches of slop during the early morning and late evening hours? At my elevation you don't notice as much because its not as much of a borderline climate for snow. But you have to wonder.... If January 2012 had occurred in a late 19th century climate would Salem have picked up 5-6" of wet snow on the 17th instead of just 1/2" of slop in the morning? If January 2008 had occurred in a late 19th century climate would we all feel differently about that winter? 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Definitely a freak occurrence, but also showing us that in a borderline climate for snow like ours, these kinds of things are possible without extreme temps. I think the one thing that has been noted repeatedly is that in our borderline climate we don't seem to be getting these "borderline" events (Obviously I'm talking about more minor events in general as opposed to this extreme event.), as frequently. Does the 1-2F in warming make that difference? Would that translate into these individual events? If January 1880 happened now would Bainbridge have recorded a 35/33 day and accumulated a few inches of slop during the early morning and late evening hours? At my elevation you don't notice as much because its not as much of a borderline climate for snow. But you have to wonder.... If January 2012 had occurred in a late 19th century climate would Salem have picked up 5-6" of wet snow on the 17th instead of just 1/2" of slop in the morning? If January 2008 had occurred in a late 19th century climate would we all feel differently about that winter? To me there is no way that 1-2F of warming doesn't make a difference in a borderline climate. Any one of the borderline events from recent years could have evolved into a slightly colder animal had they occured in the 19th century. With dramatically different results on the ground here in the lowlands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 It just occurred to me I might be able to use the 52 pound per square foot stat to calculate the actual water equivalent of the snowfall. Just to illustrate how insane that is consider the fact a 4x8 sheet of plywood is 32 square feet and would have had an incredible 1664 pounds of snow on it! Wow! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 To me there is no way that 1-2F of warming doesn't make a difference in a borderline climate. Any one of the borderline events from recent years could have evolved into a slightly colder animal had they occured in the 19th century. With dramatically different results on the ground here in the lowlands. True indeed. That still doesn't account for our inability to get region wide major snowstorms with the Arctic outbreaks we still see on a fairly regular basis though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 To me there is no way that 1-2F of warming doesn't make a difference in a borderline climate. Any one of the borderline events from recent years could have evolved into a slightly colder animal had they occured in the 19th century. With dramatically different results on the ground here in the lowlands. I was in college in Oklahoma in January 2008, I was following the weather out here still, but I don't have a real clear recollection of the specific events. I do know there was massive amounts of snow above 1000', Eugene had a big snow storm, and my Dad got a few inches with snow showers on the valley floor near Silverton, but for most people it was close, but no cigar. I do think that a setup like January 2012 would have resulted in pretty widespread at least 3-5" snowfall Eugene north in the 19th century climate. First off the arctic air to the north would have probably been a little more robust and penetrated further south, but even the airmass that did get this far south was pretty D**n cold at the 850mb level, there was just tons of onshore flow. Like I said 1-2F difference probably makes the difference between T-1" of snow at the lowest levels and a widespread 3-5" of wet snow. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 True indeed. That still doesn't account for our inability to get region wide major snowstorms with the Arctic outbreaks we still see on a fairly regular basis though. December 2013 was close the I-5 corridor pretty much from Redding to S. Salem had a major snow event. Shift the focus of that north 200-300 miles and boom, you have a major snowstorm from Eugene to Seattle. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 I was in college in Oklahoma in January 2008, I was following the weather out here still, but I don't have a real clear recollection of the specific events. I do know there was massive amounts of snow above 1000', Eugene had a big snow storm, and my Dad got a few inches with snow showers on the valley floor near Silverton, but for most people it was close, but no cigar. I do think that a setup like January 2012 would have resulted in pretty widespread at least 3-5" snowfall Eugene north in the 19th century climate. First off the arctic air to the north would have probably been a little more robust and penetrated further south, but even the airmass that did get this far south was pretty D**n cold at the 850mb level, there was just tons of onshore flow. Like I said 1-2F difference probably makes the difference between T-1" of snow at the lowest levels and a widespread 3-5" of wet snow. Portland should have pulled off a few inches of snow in that late Jan/early Feb sequence in 2008. Especially on February 2nd. That entire week was about as bad as it gets for us, with regards to having so much going on nearby and still getting nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Another borderline event that probably should have produced more was January 2002. But I digress.... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Looks like I have some adjustments to make! It turns out that 52 pounds per square foot of snow equals almost exactly 10 inches of water. Almost certainly a 4 day record for Seattle and it all fell as snow! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Looks like I have some adjustments to make! It turns out that 52 pounds per square foot of snow equals almost exactly 10 inches of water. Almost certainly a 4 day record for Seattle and it all fell as snow! Honestly that makes sense. The 4 day period in question shows 73" of snow. 10" of water equivalent would be consistent with the ratio that I had during the January 2012 event. An interesting note, back in December 2012 I had a 34/32 day with 0.80" of precip which fell as snow, it accumulated to 2". Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 To me there is no way that 1-2F of warming doesn't make a difference in a borderline climate. Any one of the borderline events from recent years could have evolved into a slightly colder animal had they occured in the 19th century. With dramatically different results on the ground here in the lowlands. The interesting thing is that the main thing that has held back snowfall totals in many places in recent years has just been very little precip when it gets cold. I don't think there's been a ton of near misses due to temps being a degree or two too warm. Definitely not as many instances as when it was cold enough, but just not enough precip for much or any snow. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Another borderline event that probably should have produced more was January 2002. But I digress.... That event produced pretty well for a non-Arctic air mass from OLM north. Widespread 2-6" of snow that week. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Portland should have pulled off a few inches of snow in that late Jan/early Feb sequence in 2008. Especially on February 2nd. That entire week was about as bad as it gets for us, with regards to having so much going on nearby and still getting nothing. Yeah, 39/35 with .71" is definitely a near miss (though in a slightly colder climate, that might have just been 38/34 with little or no accumulation). But the week before that, the air mass was definitely cold enough for snow, it was just another instance where the precip wasn't there. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 It just occurred to me I might be able to use the 52 pound per square foot stat to calculate the actual water equivalent of the snowfall. Just to illustrate how insane that is consider the fact a 4x8 sheet of plywood is 32 square feet and would have had an incredible 1664 pounds of snow on it! Wow!Yes you could, however to know the depth/SWE you would need to know 2 pieces of info...weight and SWE or weight and depth. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yes you could, however to know the depth/SWE you would need to know 2 pieces of info...weight and SWE or weight and depth. I know the depth in Seattle was about 54 or 55 inches at the peak. The weight of 52 pounds per square foot indicates there was about 10 inches of water equivalent in that. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 I know the depth in Seattle was about 54 or 55 inches at the peak. The weight of 52 pounds per square foot indicates there was about 10 inches of water equivalent in that.I've heard that weight fact a lot of times, but how likely is that to be accurate? Seems like it would have been a really difficult thing to measure with all that snow. And I'd have to assume the peak weight would also be well after the peak depth. That kind of snowpack would absorb a lot of rain. This is a really, really interesting thread btw. I'd love to see more posts like this breaking down other major events. Maybe some more reason ones as well so that our community could add in our personal observations and stories. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 I maintain that given the temperature profile, if 73" of snow really fell in 4 days at SEA then it would have had to have been about 8-10" of precip. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 I maintain that given the temperature profile, if 73" of snow really fell in 4 days at SEA then it would have had to have been about 8-10" of precip.I agree based on the numbers, but if that were the case it seems like somewhere in the North Sound would have gotten like 8 feet with better ratios and I've never heard any reports of that. I agree though that the water equivalency numbers look low for the snow amounts. Not hard to imagine water equivalent being measured inaccurately. Especially with exactly 3.00" recorded on the snowiest day. Looks like a guestimate to me. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 I maintain that given the temperature profile, if 73" of snow really fell in 4 days at SEA then it would have had to have been about 8-10" of precip. I decided I'm going to apply an 8 to 1 ratio to the snowfall totals to get the water equivalent numbers. That should be close. The snowfall numbers are the most well documented thing I have for Seattle proper so I'm going with that. It sure makes me wonder how much it may have snowed in places away from the water and over 300 feet or so. Sadly there is no snowfall data for anything other than sea level locations. It must have been nearly Biblical! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 I decided I'm going to apply an 8 to 1 ratio to the snowfall totals to get the water equivalent numbers. That should be close. The snowfall numbers are the most well documented thing I have for Seattle proper so I'm going with that. It sure makes me wonder how much it may have snowed in places away from the water and over 300 feet or so. Sadly there is no snowfall data for anything other than sea level locations. It must have been nearly Biblical!Has 8-10" of water ever fallen in Seattle in a 4-day period other than supposedly in Jan 1880? Seems like quite the outlier, perhaps on the order of 4 standard deviations. That would tend to call it into question IMO and make me think that the depth measurements were that of a drift or pile. Never mind the tendency to print exaggerated superlatives to sell more papers. Media does same thing today. Here are a few photos from the Jan 1880 event in downtown Seattle. http://pauldorpat.com/seattle-now-then-archive/a-history-of-seattle-snows-exposed/seattle-snows-part-3/While the amount looks quite large for a lowland location I think a depth in excess of 4' with our modern measuring criteria would have been a stretch. I see piles of snow that easily reach about 6 feet tall (as tall as a horse's shoulder) which would lead me to believe depth was probably under 4 feet on an undisturbed level surface, at least in downtown Seattle and I'd venture to guess that peak depth was no more than about 36-42" incorporating modern measuring standards...still incredible. The precip totals from Bainbridge Island at an 8:1 ratio would indicate 40" from the first "storm" (ie 1.95" and 3.00" on successive days). I think the snow may have been closer to 5:1 or 6:1 though, especially considering indications that the storm was associated with an AR event...likely the 850 mb low was displaced a bit farther N than the surface low and mild air at 850 mb was pulled north of the surface low track (storms undergoing cyclogenesis tend to tilt into the polar air/upper level trough with height). This is typical of mature storms that haven't fully occluded and become stacked. I would venture to guess Storm King likely occluded around landfall as pressures inland were higher than the 28.40" recorded at Astoria nearest the surface low landfall. At best a pretty isothermal layer would have existed over Seattle at lower levels in the atmosphere...near 0c. Above-freezing layer aloft seems to have been confined a bit to the S-SE of Seattle...then temps fell back below 0c in the entire column as far south as Eugene behind the cold front, which is very impressive. Jet must have been suppressed back well to the south by a deep trough moving onshore. It's also possible that a period of mixed precip (ZR, sleet or even rain) may have occurred during the multi-day event. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 This thread got me thinking. What are the top tier single storm type events in PNW history for the W. Lowlands. The list in my mind is pretty Oregon centric, but really the big ones that stand out to me are Jan 1909 Dec 1919, Feb 1937, Jan 1943, Jan 1969. If I had to pick one of these events to live through I think I would go with December 1919. Widespread 18-24" of snow across much of W. Oregon with the onset of a top tier arctic airmass. Doesn't get any better than that. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 This thread got me thinking. What are the top tier single storm type events in PNW history for the W. Lowlands. The list in my mind is pretty Oregon centric, but really the big ones that stand out to me are Jan 1909 Dec 1919, Feb 1937, Jan 1943, Jan 1969. If I had to pick one of these events to live through I think I would go with December 1919. Widespread 18-24" of snow across much of W. Oregon with the onset of a top tier arctic airmass. Doesn't get any better than that. In the last 100 years, these storms produced really widespread 10"+ totals inside of about 48 hours. December 28-29, 1996 for V.I. and Seattle to Vancouver, B.C.January 8-9, 1980 for Portland to OlympiaJanuary 24-26, 1972 for Centralia to SeattleJanuary 12-14, 1971 for Bellingham to Vancouver, B.C.January 24-26, 1969 for Medford to EugeneMarch 4-6, 1951 for Mt. Vernon to Vancouver, B.C.January 13, 1950 for Portland to SeattleJanuary 21, 1943 for Corvallis to LongviewJanuary 31, 1937 for Corvallis to LongviewFebruary 13-14, 1923 for Portland to BellinghamDecember 9-10, 1919 for Eugene to CentraliaFebruary 1-2, 1916 for Olympia to Bellingham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 Has 8-10" of water ever fallen in Seattle in a 4-day period other than supposedly in Jan 1880? Seems like quite the outlier, perhaps on the order of 4 standard deviations. That would tend to call it into question IMO and make me think that the depth measurements were that of a drift or pile. Never mind the tendency to print exaggerated superlatives to sell more papers. Media does same thing today. Here are a few photos from the Jan 1880 event in downtown Seattle. http://pauldorpat.com/seattle-now-then-archive/a-history-of-seattle-snows-exposed/seattle-snows-part-3/While the amount looks quite large for a lowland location I think a depth in excess of 4' with our modern measuring criteria would have been a stretch. I see piles of snow that easily reach about 6 feet tall (as tall as a horse's shoulder) which would lead me to believe depth was probably under 4 feet on an undisturbed level surface, at least in downtown Seattle and I'd venture to guess that peak depth was no more than about 36-42" incorporating modern measuring standards...still incredible. The precip totals from Bainbridge Island at an 8:1 ratio would indicate 40" from the first "storm" (ie 1.95" and 3.00" on successive days). I think the snow may have been closer to 5:1 or 6:1 though, especially considering indications that the storm was associated with an AR event...likely the 850 mb low was displaced a bit farther N than the surface low and mild air at 850 mb was pulled north of the surface low track (storms undergoing cyclogenesis tend to tilt into the polar air/upper level trough with height). This is typical of mature storms that haven't fully occluded and become stacked. I would venture to guess Storm King likely occluded around landfall as pressures inland were higher than the 28.40" recorded at Astoria nearest the surface low landfall. At best a pretty isothermal layer would have existed over Seattle at lower levels in the atmosphere...near 0c. Above-freezing layer aloft seems to have been confined a bit to the S-SE of Seattle...then temps fell back below 0c in the entire column as far south as Eugene behind the cold front, which is very impressive. Jet must have been suppressed back well to the south by a deep trough moving onshore. It's also possible that a period of mixed precip (ZR, sleet or even rain) may have occurred during the multi-day event. I have seen too many different sets of measurements from different towns to question the depths indicated on various websites. Keep in mind the editors of the PI were highly pissed off about that event because they wanted to perpetuate the myth Seattle's climate was nothing pansies, kittens, and lambs back then. They looked at that snow as being a huge embarrassment. One quote in the PI is they averaged the depth through the city at the height of the event to 4 and one half feet. Depths were higher on the hills away from the water. It is truly amazing they pulled off what is apparently their greatest 4 day total precip on record with the precip all falling as snow. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 In the last 100 years, these storms produced really widespread 10"+ totals inside of about 48 hours. December 28-29, 1996 for V.I. and Seattle to Vancouver, B.C.January 8-9, 1980 for Portland to OlympiaJanuary 24-26, 1972 for Centralia to SeattleJanuary 12-14, 1971 for Bellingham to Vancouver, B.C.January 24-26, 1969 for Medford to EugeneMarch 4-6, 1951 for Mt. Vernon to Vancouver, B.C.January 13, 1950 for Portland to SeattleJanuary 21, 1943 for Corvallis to LongviewJanuary 31, 1937 for Corvallis to LongviewFebruary 13-14, 1923 for Portland to BellinghamDecember 9-10, 1919 for Eugene to CentraliaFebruary 1-2, 1916 for Olympia to BellinghamI was thinking liquid equivalent along the I-5 corridor (EUG-BLI) of 8-10" in a 4 day stretch....only a couple events come to mind, one being the roughly 10" event in Portland in Dec 1882, including the calendar day record of 6.68" which stands even today. Seattle being a bit drier than downtown Portland on average would probably have less chance of seeing similar calendar day totals. As is it's safe to say a 5-6" total in one day (SEA has exceeded 5" of water in one day on only one occasion) would have a return rate on the order of a couple centuries at minimum. Heck the airport (PDX) hasn't seen a 3" total since 2009. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Well its far from inclusive, but the pictures shown don't support the claims in my mind. Something else to remember, the wet snow compacts the lower layers. At my location, I can't seem to crack 30". I've gotten 2" - 8" a day for a week in row but the total depth struggled to increase after a certain point. The ground was frozen so I blamed compaction rather than bottom melt. To me the pictures from the Jan 1880 snowfall are kind of disappointing. There is really nothing in any them to get a true idea of depth. All I know is there are measurements from a number of different places that support the 4 to 6 foot depths that are attributed to that event. I have looked at the newspaper articles and they specifically talk about measuring at several points throughout the city and coming up with a 4.5 foot average. Then you have the 52 inch depth measured in Tacoma and similar depths from Port Townsend. Different cities and different people measuring. Pretty hard to dispute. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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