Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

Dreaming of a White Christmas????  Not sure how many of you have been going to bed and praying to the Snow Gods or writing Santa letters, but Mother Nature is painting a nasty set up for our region come Christmas Eve.  The 12z Euro Ensembles/Control are in and they take the main energy almost due north from the Gulf into the lower lakes.  Today's Euro Ensembles & Control take a very similar path right into S/C MI.  Some of the Euro Ensembles are now painting some huge totals near the Lakes.  Lot's of time to figure out track/precip/snowfall amounts etc.  Let's discuss this storm potential.

[Tom]

I'd say almost about 35% of the Euro ensembles are showing a snow streak from S IL or near AR due north towards Lake Superior.  A very big jump needless to say and a sign of possible future runs showing a better phase earlier for this system.

[gabel23]

So much time to go with this thing, I wouldn't be surprised to see the trough 300 miles back west or further east. Will be fun to watch. 

[gosaints]

I'd say almost about 35% of the Euro ensembles are showing a snow streak from S IL or near AR due north towards Lake Superior.  A very big jump needless to say and a sign of possible future runs showing a better phase earlier for this system.

Way earlier for imby post but do they throw snow back this far west?

[Tom]

Way earlier for imby post but do they throw snow back this far west?

Yippers....

[gosaints]

just fast forward a week and we will take E17

[GDR]

Yippers....

is the gfs similar?

[Scott26]

You guys may think I'm crazy lol, but I don't care if I even get any accumulating snow out of this thing. From a Meteorological standpoint how often do you see a 965 mb low in December or ever for that matter in the US? The wind field with this thing being modeled is just amazing and how it all seems to be coming together is beautiful imo. Snow would just be a small added bonus for me. A lot can change, but I'm very excited.

[tim the weatherman]

...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. (cle's afd...)

[Snowshoe]

is the gfs similar?

Further east

[NEJeremy]

enjoy guys to the east. it's going to be fun for you to watch. at least we won't have to worry about travel here in Nebraska and I'm happy for that as I do have a lot of traveling on Christmas

[Snowshoe]

NWS Duluth

 

 

 

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERN
IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THE
WESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEK
COLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ON
RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_conus.gif

[Snowshoe]

NWS MKE

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE AREA THAT COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WEAKER AND TO OUR NORTHWEST.

A STRONG UPPER JET FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIVE INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO SET
UP OVER THE MIDWEST FROM SUN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL HELP TO DRAW WARMER AIR AND ALSO MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIP
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. PRECIP TYPE WILL END UP BEING A MIX. IT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IL BORDER WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL TAP INTO ENERGY FROM AN UPPER JET OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TRACKING NORTHWEST
TOWARD LAKE HURON. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FOR DAY 7-8. OF
COURSE... THE FORECAST TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL
WAVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST DETAILS
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

[Snowshoe]

NWS GRB

 

 

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN IT
APPEARS STORMY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. FIRST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY TO 961MB OVER LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...AT LEAST
SEVERAL OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. USUALLY DO NOT
PUT A DAY 7 EVENT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND OTHER OFFICES ARE MENTIONING
IT...THUS WARRANTING ADDING IT. LEFT IT VAGUE DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
NOT BE RESOLVED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

[Yerf]

From LOT

 

THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT LIFTS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST MIDWEEK...WITH COMPLICATIONS AS THE MODELS DEAL WITH
PHASING THE SOUTHERN LOW WITH A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

[Money]

18z GFS much farther north/stronger with the northern stream. Probably will end up pretty meh for Christmas eve,

[Money]

18z GFS will be way east while 18z GFS par. should be west of it's 12z run.

[Money]

970 L in PA on the 18z GFS. Ends up 958 in NY

 

It's all about the northern stream. Need it to dig.

[tim the weatherman]

To summarize:

- Model guidance is beginning to sniff out a very strong storm system impacting most of the Central and East US on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.
- This would severely impact travel.
- Snow would be confined primarily to the north-central Great Lakes into Canada.
- Very high uncertainty still exists. (and he also has said this storm is borderline for bombogenesis)

[Tony]

We all knew this storm was going to bounce around from run to run but boy what a shift on the GFS. At least it still has a storm.

[Tony]

To summarize:

 

- Model guidance is beginning to sniff out a very strong storm system impacting most of the Central and East US on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.

- This would severely impact travel.

- Snow would be confined primarily to the north-central Great Lakes into Canada.

- Very high uncertainty still exists. (and he also has said this storm is borderline for bombogenesis)

Who is "He"?

[tim the weatherman]

Who is "He"?

it's andrew at the weather centre.

[tim the weatherman]

the two pieces of energy one to the north and one to the south has combined to one that has negatively tiltedhe also has stated.

[Niko]

Dreaming of a White Christmas????  Not sure how many of you have been going to bed and praying to the Snow Gods or writing Santa letters, but Mother Nature is painting a nasty set up for our region come Christmas Eve.  The 12z Euro Ensembles/Control are in and they take the main energy almost due north from the Gulf into the lower lakes.  Today's Euro Ensembles & Control take a very similar path right into S/C MI.  Some of the Euro Ensembles are now painting some huge totals near the Lakes.  Lot's of time to figure out track/precip/snowfall amounts etc.  Let's discuss this storm potential.

This will clobber my area.

[Niko]

My local weatherman just said that next weeks storm needs to be watched because it could produce massive problems for people traveling. 

[Niko]

I wonder if SEMI will get that "B" word in the forecast next week.   

[GDR]

Wow, this could be one of those storms you get once every 100 years. Someone is going to get clobbered!

[MarcusBeier]

PLEASE BE THE B WORD FOR SEMI!!!!

[WBadgersW]

I was watching my local Fox station this morning and they said the chance of a white Christmas are almost zero. Turned on Tmj4 this evening and they said a white Christmas is looking more and more likely.

 

There is something big heading for the GLR. It's just a matter of time to see where exactly and how big it's going to be. All I can say is I'm happy that I'm not in the bullseye this far out.

[Money]

18z GFS ensembles:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f162.gif

[Tom]

Would love to see this storm go negative tilt a little earlier and tap into that low level jet to feed that GOM and Atlantic Moisture back into the cold sector.  Hopefully we see more signs of this potential on tonights 00z runs.

[Jaycee]

Would love to see this storm go negative tilt a little earlier and tap into that low level jet to feed that GOM and Atlantic Moisture back into the cold sector.  Hopefully we see more signs of this potential on tonights 00z runs.

Agreed. Unfortunately, Nebraska is sitting with miracle status for our state to get hit by this storm. However, I am heading up to SE MN for winter break tomorrow, and are liking my chances there much better. Hopefully Nebraska still gets in on the action, I'll be pulling for you guys.

 

As gabel stated, everyone is still in the game at this point. I just want a storm, idc if Chicago gets it, SEMI gets it, just a storm to track. I'm sick of these fantasy land storms fizzling out, and I'd love to start off tracking a real monster system like they're showing now within 144 hrs. Hoping the trend stays put!

[Money]

Would love to see this storm go negative tilt a little earlier and tap into that low level jet to feed that GOM and Atlantic Moisture back into the cold sector.  Hopefully we see more signs of this potential on tonights 00z runs.

 

Some of those GFS ensembles look nice in terms of cold sector qpf

[Scott26]

We all knew this storm was going to bounce around from run to run but boy what a shift on the GFS. At least it still has a storm.

Only thing you have to worry about my friend. Track at this point is obviously going to be all over the place and will continue to be for a while.

[Money]

WPC:

 

http://i.imgur.com/sFjAOy3.gif

[james1976]

Really hoping this thing gets its act together sooner than what models are showing. Everything is off to my east.

[james1976]

DMX saying a westward shift happens a lot with models and winter storms and is throwing that possiblility into this storm.

[Money]

UKIE

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

Change from it's 12z run and keeping the northern stream much farther north

[Money]

GGEM has the northern stream wayy north in Canada