Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[Money]

RGEM precip maps

 

38

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_038.png

 

40

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_040.png

 

42

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_042.png

 

44

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_044.png

[Money]

47

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_047.png

 

48

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_048.png

[tim the weatherman]

also lot has said a lot of convection a.k.a.thundersnow.

[Scott26]

I may have to eat my words. I was downplaying the convection in play and how this can increase totals substantially. Global models aren't able to get those mesoscale factors.

[Geos]

@ Money's maps... definitely came in further SE.

 

Skilling on the storm talk now. RPM shows the snow starting in NE IL around 9:30AM.

[Money]

OP GFS 984 in C. MI at HR 45.

 

Parallel GFS for the win?

[Grizzcoat]

 GFS through 60-

[Geos]

I think that's a 3 hour period snowfall map Grizz.

 

Should look closer to this.

 

 

RPM

 

[Money]

Parallel GFS nearly identical to 18z. Maybe 1 MB stronger and a smidge west

 

0z

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_7.png

 

18z

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_8.png

[Grizzcoat]

Nope -- total snowfall through period.

[Money]

HR 36

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png

 

18z HR 42

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7.png

[Money]

I think that's a 3 hour period snowfall map Grizz.

 

Should look closer to this.

 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_11.png

 

RPM

 

RPM_snowfall_122414.png

 

Yeah, that's total.

[Maxim]

Nope -- total snowfall through period.

Wrong

[Money]

18z HR 48

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png

 

0z HR 42

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7.png

[Grizzcoat]

Wrong

 Check it yourself. It right according to instant weather. 5" of snow in NC IA in 3 hours???

[Money]

HR 48

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_9.png

 

18z HR 54

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_10.png

[Tom]

I don't think the GFS is handling the dynamic cooling that will be taken place with this system.  The rain/snow line will be hugging just to the NW of wherever this storm system tracks.  Watch the models increase snow totals as we get closer.  This will be a rapidly developing system and I've seen this before where models start off weak only to get stronger/wetter as we get closer.

[Money]

Instant weather maps uses actual ratios and stuff while wxbell is 10:1 ratios

 

That's why you see such a difference 

[Tom]

00z GFS Par...

[Maxim]

Check it yourself. It right according to instant weather. 5" of snow in NC IA in 3 hours???

ok, bro

[Geos]

Nope -- total snowfall through period.

 

I think that site uses a different algorithm. It's not factoring in the dynamics very well.

 

---

 

PGFS comes in like this.

 

Nevermind Tom posted it.

[Money]

Check out the consistency from the GFS Parallel

 

12-22 (0z)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png

 

12-22 (6z)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122206/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

 

12-22 (12z)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122212/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png

 

12-22 (18z)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png

 

12-23 (0z)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png

[Madtown]

Holding out hope money...but I think we are toast

[Tom]

Hey Tony, are you liking the trends tonight???

[Scott26]

00Z RGEM and still snowing. You guys are going to love this...

 

[Tony]

I am loving it so far. Just hoping now that it does not continue to trend too far west. Storm seems to be getting stronger and wetter, maybe some subtropical influence as well as wide open GOM.

[Tony]

Not going to get too excited till tomorrow but not going to lie, I really really like where we sit.

[Money]

I think this thing could potentially get down in the 970's. OP GFS which is usually the more progressive model gets this down in the low 980's. 

 

Hi-res models coming out now. 

[Geos]

Winter storm watches probably coming soon now.

[Money]

GGEM/UKIE still east

 

GGEM

 

[Snowshoe]

Added to the WWA! Tomorrow morning sounds like fun.

 

 

* FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN A BAND FROM MARSHFIELD AND

WISCONSIN RAPIDS, THROUGH WAUSAU, TO WAUSAUKEE FOR THE

TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO

NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING.

 

* THE SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

 

* A TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY

EVENING.

[Scott26]

I have a friend who is flying into O'Hare from Mexico Wednesday night. I told him that he probably doesn't have much of a chance of getting in on time. While we may enjoy the snow this is going to be a giant hassle for travelers on the busiest travel day in the year.

[Money]

WRF-NMM:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_041_1000_500_thick.gif

[Sciascia]

I have a friend who is flying into O'Hare from Mexico Wednesday night. I told him that he probably doesn't have much of a chance of getting in on time. While we may enjoy the snow this is going to be a giant hassle for travelers on the busiest travel day in the year.

Yep. I wish I could be super excited about this, but knowing I'm supposed to make stops in Plainfield & Belvidere on Christmas Eve make the current trends pretty problematic.

 

So rather than super excited, I'm just a little excited. Lol

[WildWisconsinWeather]

WRF-NMM:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_041_1000_500_thick.gif

 

Considering we're nearing 36 hours out from the start of the precip, I'm still seeing a ton of disagreement amongst the models.  A blend of all of them would probably put MKE in a good position, but this WRF NMM you're showing is too far west to be any good and will probably cut right through MKE.  Then on the eastern fringes we have the GEM and UKIE still taking the low into E Lower Michigan.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...high rez models are the way to go from now on...Global models are pretty much all in agreement on track.  High Rez models will do a much better job pin pointing the defo band/snow totals/etc

[Money]

Considering we're nearing 36 hours out from the start of the precip, I'm still seeing a ton of disagreement amongst the models.  A blend of all of them would probably put MKE in a good position, but this WRF NMM you're showing is too far west to be any good and will probably cut right through MKE.  Then on the eastern fringes we have the GEM and UKIE still taking the low into E Lower Michigan.

 

It's because of the resolution in the models. GGEM/UKIE are more long-range models and shouldn't really be considered within 48-72 hours of events. 

 

All the hi-res models will be able to pick up on this much better because it's what they're designed for.

 

Even the often tame ARW gets the low down into the 980's in SW MI. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

00z GGEM...high rez models are the way to go from now on...Global models are pretty much all in agreement on track.  High Rez models will do a much better job pin pointing the defo band/snow totals/etc

 

But will they do a good job wrt the low ratios?  We're talking perhaps 6-8:1 snow ratios, though I hope to heck I'm wrong.

[Money]

Here is the ARW which is usually on the SE/weaker end of the models 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_045_1000_500_thick.gif

[Money]

NMM

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_046_1000_500_thick.gif