Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[Money]

48

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_048_1000_500_thick.gif

 

12 hr precip (qpf)

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_048_precip_p12.gif

[Madtown]

Well...who's right?

[Tom]

But will they do a good job wrt the low ratios?  We're talking perhaps 6-8:1 snow ratios, though I hope to heck I'm wrong.

Could be right, but the amount of qpf totals being spit out on some of the high rez models are between 1.0" - 1.5"!  Gosh, only if the temps were about 4 degrees colder.

[Madtown]

Well...who's right?

[gosaints]

Thing has slowed so much it really is not in the hi res kill range

[Tom]

48

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_048_1000_500_thick.gif

 

12 hr precip (qpf)

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_048_precip_p12.gif

That would be a crippling snow storm if only temps were colder.  We would be talking 12-18" of snow.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Well...who's right?

 

Who knows, might be good to take a compromise of them, I think you'll be mostly snow, but may only see a few tenths of an inch of QPF or less.  We'll see, I guess.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Thing has slowed so much it really is not in the hi res kill range

 

Which is good because more of the potential wet snow will fall on Christmas Eve (praying it will be mostly snow at that point).

[Money]

Phased systems with no blocking to the north= stronger/nw solutions.

 

We've seen the same story over and over.

[Money]

Thing has slowed so much it really is not in the hi res kill range

 

Even in the "hi res kill range" the storm is nw of all the other models euro, ggem etc.

 

You could tell from 12-24 hours out that it's heading nw/stronger

[Madtown]

Well pin point forecast removed all snow wed. night and 20% chance during the day. Praying for a little more nw.

[Grizzcoat]

Just posting GFS data-- not saying I agree or disagree with it-- just posting it.  I will do ORD- MKE - GRB and a wild card winner.

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: ORD    LAT=  41.98 LON=  -87.90 ELE=   673                                            00Z DEC23   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 00Z 23-DEC   3.7     1.0    1006      97     100             546     541    TUE 06Z 23-DEC   3.6     3.4    1002      96      98    0.09     545     544    TUE 12Z 23-DEC   5.6     2.3    1002      97      48    0.25     543     542    TUE 18Z 23-DEC   6.7     0.9    1005      75       7    0.00     547     543    WED 00Z 24-DEC   4.4     0.3    1007      87      12    0.00     548     542    WED 06Z 24-DEC   3.0     1.7    1006      91      76    0.00     548     543    WED 12Z 24-DEC   2.6    -2.5    1003      97      98    0.17     545     543    WED 18Z 24-DEC   2.1    -2.7     994      99      97    0.31     535     540    THU 00Z 25-DEC   1.2    -3.4     997      97     100    0.26     532     534    THU 06Z 25-DEC  -1.0    -3.7    1002      92      58    0.02     536     535    THU 12Z 25-DEC  -2.8    -2.4    1009      94      57    0.00     545     538

[Grizzcoat]

MKE-

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MKE    LAT=  42.95 LON=  -87.90 ELE=   692                                            00Z DEC23   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 00Z 23-DEC   3.2     0.4    1007      94      97             545     540    TUE 06Z 23-DEC   3.4     2.1    1004      95      95    0.15     545     542    TUE 12Z 23-DEC   4.5     2.6    1001      97      84    0.33     540     540    TUE 18Z 23-DEC   5.7     0.3    1004      84      12    0.00     544     541    WED 00Z 24-DEC   4.4    -0.8    1007      86      12    0.00     547     541    WED 06Z 24-DEC   2.9     0.1    1007      91      31    0.00     547     541    WED 12Z 24-DEC   2.7    -2.2    1003      93      97    0.02     544     542    WED 18Z 24-DEC   2.8    -2.8     994      97      99    0.26     537     542    THU 00Z 25-DEC   1.9    -3.3     995      93      99    0.51     531     535    THU 06Z 25-DEC  -0.6    -4.3    1000      88      51    0.03     534     535    THU 12Z 25-DEC  -1.3    -2.3    1007      90      75    0.00     543     537 

[Grizzcoat]

GRB-

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: GRB    LAT=  44.48 LON=  -88.10 ELE=   689                                            00Z DEC23   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 00Z 23-DEC   1.1    -1.3    1009      88      98             544     537    TUE 06Z 23-DEC   1.6     0.5    1006      98     100    0.22     544     539    TUE 12Z 23-DEC   1.6    -0.3    1003      99      99    0.28     542     540    TUE 18Z 23-DEC   3.1    -0.2    1002     100      41    0.16     538     536    WED 00Z 24-DEC   1.9    -1.9    1006      97      39    0.00     543     538    WED 06Z 24-DEC   1.2    -2.0    1007      96      25    0.00     544     539    WED 12Z 24-DEC   1.7    -2.4    1004      95      31    0.00     543     540    WED 18Z 24-DEC   1.6    -2.6     997     100      95    0.08     538     540    THU 00Z 25-DEC   0.6    -3.5     993      91      96    0.12     530     536    THU 06Z 25-DEC  -1.4    -5.5     997      89      58    0.01     532     534    THU 12Z 25-DEC  -1.2    -3.0    1004      92      90    0.00     539     536

[Grizzcoat]

Wildcard winner is-- RFD-

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: RFD    LAT=  42.20 LON=  -89.10 ELE=   742                                            00Z DEC23   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 00Z 23-DEC   2.3     1.1    1004      98      97             544     540    TUE 06Z 23-DEC   2.9     2.6    1001      98      99    0.09     543     543    TUE 12Z 23-DEC   4.7    -0.1    1000      97      44    0.21     539     539    TUE 18Z 23-DEC   5.8    -0.5    1004      79      13    0.00     544     541    WED 00Z 24-DEC   3.5    -1.1    1007      90      13    0.00     546     540    WED 06Z 24-DEC   1.8    -0.3    1006      95      39    0.00     546     541    WED 12Z 24-DEC   1.4    -2.3    1003      96      77    0.01     542     540    WED 18Z 24-DEC   1.4    -3.5     997      98      98    0.20     535     538    THU 00Z 25-DEC   0.9    -3.6     999      96      93    0.19     533     534    THU 06Z 25-DEC  -2.2    -4.3    1003      94      38    0.00     538     535    THU 12Z 25-DEC  -3.1    -1.4    1009      95      82    0.00     546     539

[WildWisconsinWeather]

 

MKE-

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MKE    LAT=  42.95 LON=  -87.90 ELE=   692                                            00Z DEC23   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 00Z 23-DEC   3.2     0.4    1007      94      97             545     540    TUE 06Z 23-DEC   3.4     2.1    1004      95      95    0.15     545     542    TUE 12Z 23-DEC   4.5     2.6    1001      97      84    0.33     540     540    TUE 18Z 23-DEC   5.7     0.3    1004      84      12    0.00     544     541    WED 00Z 24-DEC   4.4    -0.8    1007      86      12    0.00     547     541    WED 06Z 24-DEC   2.9     0.1    1007      91      31    0.00     547     541    WED 12Z 24-DEC   2.7    -2.2    1003      93      97    0.02     544     542    WED 18Z 24-DEC   2.8    -2.8     994      97      99    0.26     537     542    THU 00Z 25-DEC   1.9    -3.3     995      93      99    0.51     531     535    THU 06Z 25-DEC  -0.6    -4.3    1000      88      51    0.03     534     535    THU 12Z 25-DEC  -1.3    -2.3    1007      90      75    0.00     543     537 

 

Based on this, not sure we can expect any snow, I know 850s are below 0C throughout the precip, but surface temps a few degrees F above freezing generally?  Not a good recipe for any accumulation, though I'm guessing any dynamic cooling will throw these temp progs out of whack.

[earthandturf]

This isn't exactly what I wanted for my 1st plowing event of the season. Heavy, wet snow to wreak havoc on my Christmas. I've never had to plow on Christmas or Christmas Eve before.

[Money]

Based on this, not sure we can expect any snow, I know 850s are below 0C throughout the precip, but surface temps a few degrees F above freezing generally?  Not a good recipe for any accumulation, though I'm guessing any dynamic cooling will throw these temp progs out of whack.

 

models don't do well with dynamic cooling. We also had temps here at about 33-35 when we had that bigger storm earlier this year and we got 4-5 inches or so and it accumulated nicely. 

[Tom]

00z Euro...farther east with snow band...focus needs to turn towards High Rez from now on...

[Money]

So, Chicago sees either 8-12 inches or nothing depending on which model you look at.

 

What would you do if you were the forecaster for LOT or MKE areas?

[Scott26]

00z Euro...farther east with snow band...focus needs to turn towards High Rez from now on...

Man I would love to see how the midnight shift at LOT reacted to that lol. You're right though we need to focus on hi-res, but it's weird that suddenly the Euro is further east...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

So, Chicago sees either 8-12 inches or nothing depending on which model you look at.

 

What would you do if you were the forecaster for LOT or MKE areas?

 

Throw your hands up in the air, that's what I feel like doing now.  Pros to the NW track: the GFS Ensembles and hi-res models have been all over it; Cons: the UKIE, GEM (to an extent) and Euro are in the easterly camp, and all are pretty solid (albeit long-range) models.

[Geos]

EURO is interesting nonetheless. Feel that those western most solution can be knocked off. I still like that map I did earlier yesterday showing where I thought the heaviest snow would set up.

 

High resolution models are definitely the way to go now.

 

The offices could always throw up watches and then either go for a warning tomorrow night or downgrade to an advisory.

[Money]

EURO is interesting nonetheless. Feel that those western most solution can be knocked off. I still like that map I did earlier yesterday showing where I thought the heaviest snow would set up.

 

High resolution models are definitely the way to go now.

 

Any reason why you say the western solutions can be knocked off? 

[Tom]

Man I would love to see how the midnight shift at LOT reacted to that lol. You're right though we need to focus on hi-res, but it's weird that suddenly the Euro is further east...

00z Euro is in it's own world on this one...as it has always been east but since last night 00z it started the correction westward. I  find it hard to believe it to be east of all the models when it has a deepening system as such.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Any reason why you say the western solutions can be knocked off? 

 

Because he wants to rule out a big ole rainstorm for Mt Geos!  J/k.

[Geos]

Any reason why you say the western solutions can be knocked off? 

 

Due to the global models backing off on the strength of the low a bit ... because the EURO isn't leaning that way. I know that model isn't everything, but hard to ignore completely.

I would only really discount a run like the RGEM this morning with 6" snows all the way back towards the Quad Cities.

[Money]

They haven't backed off strength.

 

EURO hr 48 was 984. GGEM was 987. UKMET was 987. All of which were similar if not stronger than 12z. 

[Money]

0z EURO last night was close to 990 and near DET. 0z tonight was 984 and farther west. 

[Geos]

They haven't backed off strength.

 

EURO hr 48 was 984. GGEM was 987. UKMET was 987. All of which were similar if not stronger than 12z. 

 

Your right on that. I thought I remember some sub 980 mb lows.

More like the most left turning ensemble members have been disappearing throughout the day.

[Money]

GEFS

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122300/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122300/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122300/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_10.png

[Maxim]

Track looks pretty consistent still

[Geos]

Ensemble members converging on the low traversing the middle of IN.

 

[gosaints]

Well the further complicate things. The nam is back east and it looks like the hi res will bump that way as well

[Money]

Yup. Interesting, we'll see what 12z does.

[Madtown]

Mke says snow.....nothing here to see folks.

[GDR]

00z Euro...farther east with snow band...focus needs to turn towards High Rez from now on...

yeah we definitely need to focus on the hi res because this map sucks. Noway we don't see 10-12 inches!!

[BigDizBliz420]

2-5 inches are in my point. I was thinking 2-4 inches yesterday so this is more snow!

[gosaints]

Sref looks like it jumped further east. These things are famous for last second left jogs

[BigDizBliz420]

NAM will be east, I hear this means all snow for Chicago