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Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

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#1001
Maxim

Posted 23 December 2014 - 09:27 PM

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I'm more concerned about when we'll changeover to snow. The changeover is crucial to how much accumulating snow we may receive.

#1002
Tom

Posted 23 December 2014 - 09:49 PM

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It almost looks like the precip in S IL is moving NNW instead of due north like the HRRR is showing...



#1003
The Snowman

Posted 23 December 2014 - 10:46 PM

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RAP has been continuously slowing down the low's progression northward & even nudging it a bit to the west, upon comparison of RAP runs from 22z to 04z, all valid at 08z.

 

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#1004
Grizzcoat

Posted 23 December 2014 - 11:04 PM

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A bit off topic, but the dying piece of energy still giving us snow in Central Iowa.  Much more than was anticipated.  Anywhere from 1 1/4" to 2 1/2" throughout the metro.  So, don't give up hope...the models can be wrong even 12 hours out as nobody here was expecting more than a half inch in the DSM metro.  Happy Festivus to the Iowans!!!


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#1005
Grizzcoat

Posted 24 December 2014 - 01:33 AM

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Sorry to the Chicago folks on here,,, especially the suburbs to the west.  From the LOT disco this AM:

 

IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY SEE LITTLE
IF ANY SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW NOW LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#1006
Sven

Posted 24 December 2014 - 02:08 AM

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Go to bed grizz...I should have but one last check to see if E. NE. had anything besides pacific northwest rain and cold yielded negative results.



#1007
Grizzcoat

Posted 24 December 2014 - 02:35 AM

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I work graveyard.  I will go to bed when my shift ends. Just stating what is posted from local NWS sites. This site at times is so much "wish casting" --  truth is at times hard to discern. Seems when something is posted that says no/little snow for a certain area-- it gets blasted. Just trying to keep it real.


  • NEJeremy likes this

2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#1008
gosaints

Posted 24 December 2014 - 04:40 AM

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I guess totally ignoring globals/euro was not a good thing

#1009
WBadgersW

Posted 24 December 2014 - 05:30 AM

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The Euro shall regain its crown

#1010
GDR

Posted 24 December 2014 - 06:10 AM

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It almost looks like the precip in S IL is moving NNW instead of due north like the HRRR is showing...

I think it looks more NNE instead of NNW but I could be wrong.

#1011
Scott26

Posted 24 December 2014 - 06:11 AM

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I'm so glad this system will pass and we will move on lol. It's been impossible to track and keep up with since day 1. Right when there was some consistency with the models they changed at the last second. While the Euro did stay steady the last couple of days it wasn't very consistent before then.


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#1012
Tony

Posted 24 December 2014 - 08:01 AM

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On to the next storm. Its been a bad setup from the start even though it looked great for about a day or two.

 

Merry Christmas to all. Safe travels!!



#1013
Hawkeye

Posted 24 December 2014 - 08:36 AM

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Man, this storm really pooped the bed.  No cold air, strung out energy, etc.  Time to move on to the next clunker. ;)


  • tim the weatherman likes this

season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1014
Geos

Posted 24 December 2014 - 08:45 AM

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I'm so glad this system will pass and we will move on lol. It's been impossible to track and keep up with since day 1. Right when there was some consistency with the models they changed at the last second. While the Euro did stay steady the last couple of days it wasn't very consistent before then.

 

Well said.

 

I can't find any reports of snow from this system.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1015
NEJeremy

Posted 24 December 2014 - 09:53 AM

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from LOT:

ITS LIKELY THAT THE PLENTIFUL CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF COAST YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT
PLAYED A ROLE IN A FARTHER EAST LOW PRESSURE TRACK THAN
EXPECTED...AS WELL AS DISRUPTING THE MORE RAPID INSENSIFICATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS IS KEY BECAUSE THE
DRIVER OF WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED TO BE A FLIP TO WET SNOW WAS
DYNAMIC COOLING IN AN INTENSE FGEN DRIVEN DEFORMATION BAND TO
OVERCOME THE MILD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES


  • tim the weatherman likes this

#1016
bud2380

Posted 24 December 2014 - 10:05 AM

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There's a chance of snow over the weekend maybe.  The GGEM shows and inch or two.. :)



#1017
tim the weatherman

Posted 24 December 2014 - 03:05 PM

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jerry taft of wls tv just said that two scenario that 1 no cold air to help with the storm and 2 there wasn't no moisture to feed into the storm.



#1018
Geos

Posted 24 December 2014 - 09:48 PM

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jerry taft of wls tv just said that two scenario that 1 no cold air to help with the storm and 2 there wasn't no moisture to feed into the storm.

 

Storm did not develop quick enough, therefore it didn't generate it's own cold air and that caused the shift east. I would say as far as consistency, the EURO and GGEM did the best. All the models messed up on the snowfall accumulations though.


  • tim the weatherman likes this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history