12/26 - 12/27 Potential Winter Storm

[Tom]

On the heels of a Great Lakes beast, model consensus seems to be honing in on another winter storm ejecting out of the Rockies and developing over the Plains.  From there, models are having a tough time trying to figure out the track/intensity of this storm due to the Christmas Eve system.  Still lots of time to dial in on this storm potential, but it looks like another Plains to Lakes system that bears watching.

[Money]

What does the euro end up showing after that, Tom?

[Money]

GGEM:

 

132

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif

 

144

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

156

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/accum/SN_120-240_0000.gif

[Tom]

Weak sauce on the Euro...

[bud2380]

This storm is starting to look weaker and weaker.  Also models are trending north, so it looks more likely to affect northern Iowa into Minnesota.  Only the GEM shows heavier snow with the system. 

[MarcusBeier]

Along load of **** for SEMI!

[NEJeremy]

Yep about ready to put the axe in this one. It's snowed one day here and rained one other day the entire month of December. Only .3" of snow too.

[NEJeremy]

Can we delete this thread?! LOL Unless we need to watch for where the flurries or 1-3" amounts are going to fall. I guess this is a good thing though- won't have to worry about traveling on Christmas or the weekend

[Tom]

Can we delete this thread?! LOL Unless we need to watch for where the flurries or 1-3" amounts are going to fall. I guess this is a good thing though- won't have to worry about traveling on Christmas or the weekend

Not necessary, still plenty of time to see this unfold.  Patience my friend.

[clintbeed1993]

I agree, far from out of the woods.  In case nobody has noticed, the models don't seem to have a clue what these storms will do.  I have rarely seen so many flops from all of the models before.  Somebody is going to get some nice snows to close out December.

[Tom]

I agree, far from out of the woods.  In case nobody has noticed, the models don't seem to have a clue what these storms will do.  I have rarely seen so many flops from all of the models before.  Somebody is going to get some nice snows to close out December.

Indeed, and a lot has to do with the amount of cold coming into the pattern and the changing teleconnections.  The models have a ton of figuring out to do over the next few days.

[Niko]

[gosaints]

Northern wave drops a couple inches here on the nam

[Tom]

00z Euro...

[centralweather44]

Man this thing has really pushed Northwest in the past few runs. I can only hope that storm after the 26-27th will do the same so that we can have a chance at seeing something.

[clintbeed1993]

Still time for a shift back south.  Not counting on it, but one can hope.

[NEJeremy]

It's all over but the crying..

[NEJeremy]

Another set of runs with nothing to show for the storm to write home about. We're getting into the NAM range. Let's see what it shows at the end of it's run. I'm guessing 14"!

[Geos]

Weak wave on the GFS. Might be good enough for a 1-3" snowfall at this point.

Better than nothing in a boring weather month.

 

 

[clintbeed1993]

Man we just stink over here in the plains.  I know winter goes in cycles, so I would imagine we are in our slim years right now.  Looking back there were a lot of winters that had under 20 inches and even some under 10.  It would always bounce back a couple years later with some really big winters.  I think maybe the late period of this decade could have some better snowy winters, hopefully.  I sure can't take much more of this under 20 crap.

[Tom]

I know this system has lost alot of steam compared to runs a few days ago, but the 18z NAM showed this energy potentially digging a bit more south towards the end of the run.  12z GFS kinda was showing it but not really.  Until this wave of energy arrives into the Balloon Network and gets sampled, there may be a surprise in store for those in Nebraska.

[Tom]

As I write this, 18z GFS showing the same thing and trying to dig this system farther south.  Has a SLP trying to develop near Amarillo, TX @ 69HR with moisture coming up from the GOM.  Let's see if this can develop over the next couple days.

[Niko]

This bears watching!

[clintbeed1993]

Idk, we will see what the 0z runs show tonight.  I'm not expecting to be pleasantly surprised.

[Maxim]

yawn

[NEJeremy]

yep still a joke run on the NAM. moisture appears to be a problem as return flow doesn't even set up off the GOM until 18Z 12/25 and the storm moves through Nebraska 24 hours. Not enough time for any substantial moisture return. NEXT!!

[Geos]

GFS showing a few streaks of 2"+ in the central Plains this weekend. Would be nice to see this wave strengthen up a bit ahead of the Arctic air.

 

[Tom]

Something is better than nothing...hopefully the models can get this system better organized out in the Plains over the next day or so.

[CentralNebWeather]

Really like the look of the 12z nam for Nebraska. Local mets starting to mention it but are very conservative on estimates, that is kind of their m.o. If we can lay down a nice snow cover it should set the stage for the arctic air mass next week.

[NEJeremy]

It's a shame we have to name 2" a winter storm, but that's the pattern we've been in the last couple of years

[centralweather44]

Central and western Nebraska have the best chance of cashing in on this one. Lincoln and Omaha look to be skimmed by it. I can only hope that what happened in Chicago will happen here and maybe we can get an eastern shift at the last moment so that I can get some plows on the ground

[CentralNebWeather]

Hopefully it can keep shifting east for all of Nebraska. Western Nebraska has done well this winter.

[bud2380]

GGEM; much of this in Iowa and Illinois occurs on Saturday.

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/h680wTN.png

[East Dubzz]

Would love to see a little snow. Doesn't feel right without any snow yet.

[CentralNebWeather]

Nws Hastings says nam is to robust and thus just say very light amounts in the next week. Gfs also gives us a good chance on the 30th but mets just say flurries. I will see if they are correct or there typical conservative forecasts. At this point no model can be thrown out or followed 100%.

[NEJeremy]

Nws Hastings says nam is to robust and thus just say very light amounts in the next week. Gfs also gives us a good chance on the 30th but mets just say flurries. I will see if they are correct or there typical conservative forecasts. At this point no model can be thrown out or followed 100%.

 

That's right! These models have shown big snows before and it could always come back. There is a lot of arctic air coming through and that almost always spins up big systems. Won't have to worry about cold air this time!!

[NEJeremy]

just noticed winter weather advisories in So Dakota and western Nebraska for 1-6" of snow. hopefully it can hold together as it moves across the area!

[Tom]

It's a shame we have to name 2" a winter storm, but that's the pattern we've been in the last couple of years

Notice the wording from NWS in North Platte...its too bad its not in your area so it wasn't really necessary to change the title...

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

 

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA STARTING CHRISTMAS

AFTERNOON...

 

.SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA DURING CHRISTMAS

AFTERNOON AS A WINTER STORM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND CONTINUE

INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE

EXPECTED FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF

A CHAPPELL...TO MULLEN...TO VALENTINE LINE. IN ADDITION TO THE

SNOWFALL...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT

INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF

BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

 

[educatorjen]

That's right! These models have shown big snows before and it could always come back. There is a lot of arctic air coming through and that almost always spins up big systems. Won't have to worry about cold air this time!!

 

Crossing my fingers!!!

[Tom]

12z GGEM more generous with the snowfall...the SLP looking better organized and tapping more moisture out of GOM