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Explanation of Model Swings Regarding This Weekends Potential Blast


Black Hole

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I did a little forensic meteorology to figure out what was going on with the models chaotic swings with the arctic airmass over the weekend. I will use a diagram to show what is happening. I have this map marked for Friday. I drew a red x where the vortmax currently is even though the map isn't for today. Hopefully that makes sense. Anyway later as it crosses the Pacific it interacts with the cut off low by Hawaii. Depending on how it does so greatly changes the downstream pattern. If too much energy is absorbed the vortmax is weak and rides higher over the high, and then lacks the potency to carve out the trough on the back side. If its stronger as we saw on the 6z this morning or the 00z just now it forces retrogression and the cold air pours in. We may see some swings the next couple of days as models try and sort out this complicated interaction. It also doesn't help that the vortmax is in a sparse data area currently. So on my map you can see the splitting with a dashed line and the green lines represent the airstream trajectories. Lastly the two long arrows to the mainland show the two different outcomes we could see.

 

gfs_npac_057_500_vort_ht1.gif

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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